Looks like another Housing Bubble is about to burst

[spdrun]

The world would benefit more through something like Zika spreading and rendering 90% of humans infertile for a generation. Drop the human population down to 500 million inside of a century.

Things stopping and people becoming too concerned about the immediate to want to raise a family would actually be a good thing, not bad.

[FlyerInHi]

Haha, maybe right spd but not from a human centric perspective.

[spdrun]

We can’t have a population of over 7 billion on this planet and expect to consume resources at the present rate.

We either need to go for more sustainability (energy sources, make durable goods truly durable) or we need to have a lower population in the long term. Otherwise, clean air, clean water, land without diseases and with a good climate, will become things to fight over. We’ll run the real risk that population reduction will happen through nuclear war or worse.

[FlyerInHi]

Sure, with sustainability, consumer spending can be in the form of leisure and services.

Native population in the developed world is decreasing That’s why we need more immigration, to lift up people and preserve undeveloped areas. As the whole world gets developed, we will reach sustainable levels. Maybe within 100 years.

[spdrun]

If the whole world reaches present US living standards and energy consumption, it would be an ecological disaster. Goal should be a population of 500 million inside a century or two, heavily supported using automation and sustainable/nuclear energy. Basically turn the Earth into a pleasure garden for lotus eaters.

[FlyerInHi]

That would be nice, spd.

But I see countries competing for immigrants/population because of megalomania. A country needs lots of people and a large growing economy to sustain a large military. I read an article explaining that China is increasing military budget and asserting itself now before population decrease in decades ahead.

In a future of decreasing population, China and the US maybe competing for immigrants.

Population decerease can be bad like in the former sprawl of Detroit and Philadelphia. You don’t want to be stuck in a dying city with nowhere else to go. the dying cities of thr former Soviet Empire are creepy.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=ocrenter]https://youtu.be/nGHmk4UeK_w

starting at 10:30, footage of fraudulent loans using fake documentations and inflated sales price reminiscent of our own bubble from 10 years ago.[/quote]

Thanks for sharing ocrenter! That video brought back memories from our own housing mess. There will also be a day of reckoning for China and unfortunately we’ll probably feel it here in the USA as well.

Great seeing you today at lunch. We have to do that more often!

[ocrenter]

[quote=earlyretirement][quote=ocrenter]https://youtu.be/nGHmk4UeK_w

starting at 10:30, footage of fraudulent loans using fake documentations and inflated sales price reminiscent of our own bubble from 10 years ago.[/quote]

Thanks for sharing ocrenter! That video brought back memories from our own housing mess. There will also be a day of reckoning for China and unfortunately we’ll probably feel it here in the USA as well.

Great seeing you today at lunch. We have to do that more often![/quote]

Haha, total Deja vu moment when the realtor offered to find someone to write the income verification letter for $25 followed by an offer to inflate the sales price so the buyer can obtain 100% financing.

Yes, great meeting up, awesome ride in the MX!

[ocrenter]

[quote=flu]Yes, and you know what’s happening right? All the slightly weaithier ones (including the ones that made an honest business) are quickly trying to move their assets to Europe, the U.S. and Canada. Because when the crapper hits the fan, anyone that is wealth(ier) is a sitting target by the government.

So, no, this isn’t simply like the 80ies when Japan heavily invested abroad. There definitely is that going on too. But I think for a lot of people, there is an interest to have a “get the hell out of the country” plan.

Planned economies are great….. as long as you are the beneficiary of it and the government doesn’t decide to turn around and make you the scapegoat….

Maybe you haven’t noticed but there has been certain cases in which hedge funds/investment groups in China had shorted the market, only for the government to come back and confiscate those profits and jailed certain fund managers. Some say it was because of inside trading. Others say, it was just a way for the government to claim down on those bearish on the market.

Investing in China is the wild wild west right now. Some CEO’s on the board are shorting their own company stock! No conflict of interest there (end sarcasm)

Vancouver did interesting recently. They passed a 25% tax on home purchases by non-citizens I think. And you know what happened? Drove up real estate prices in Seattle, WA.[/quote]

Yup, I can totally see RE prices here heading for a correction when the Chinese money dries up. Problem here is China is so opaque there’s no way to reliably track this thing.

[spdrun]

There will also be a day of reckoning for China and unfortunately we’ll probably feel it here in the USA as well.

fortunately

[Coronita]

[quote=earlyretirement][quote=ocrenter]https://youtu.be/nGHmk4UeK_w

starting at 10:30, footage of fraudulent loans using fake documentations and inflated sales price reminiscent of our own bubble from 10 years ago.[/quote]

Thanks for sharing ocrenter! That video brought back memories from our own housing mess. There will also be a day of reckoning for China and unfortunately we’ll probably feel it here in the USA as well.

Great seeing you today at lunch. We have to do that more often![/quote]

….And you guys don’t even bother to remember to include some of us… Thanks a lot….. 🙂 J/K….. I’m kinda way out yonder now…..

[CA renter]

[quote=spdrun]Better the economy not blossom. More crap imported from China just means more worldwide environmental degradation. Growth is truly a cancer.

I like what the Swedes are planning … pay people to fix existing stuff versus buying new stuff in order to reduce the waste stream…

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/20/europe/sweden-money-for-repairs-trnd/

Re: Singapore, it’s an island smaller than NYC (as a whole, not just Manhattan). Much easier to run things centrally in a tiny country than in the US.[/quote]

What the Swedes are doing is a good idea. I’ve often thought that we should replace our “Energy Star” rating system with a system that takes the total life cycle of a product into account. From mining raw materials, production, shipping, distribution, end-of-life disposal, etc. — the ecological damage from all of these stages should be calculated and given a rating so that the more durable and most easily/cheaply repaired items get the higher ratings. We could offer some kind of a tax incentive, or (even better, IMHO) people could decide for themselves which goods would provide better value for their money.

Here’s a summary of what they’re considering in the EU:

“In this debate, BEUC sees an important need to ensure that the useful lifetime of
consumer products is prolonged through
design for durability, possibility to repair,
upgrade, disassemble and recycle products. Reliable and durable products provide value
for money to consumers and prevent overuse of resources and waste.

Enhancing the reliability of products will not only provide economic benefits to consumers but also to companies and to the overall economy. For instance, greater reliability will reduce product returns due to failure which currently costs retailers and brands a lot of money.”

http://www.beuc.eu/publications/beuc-x-2015-069_sma_upa_beuc_position_paper_durable_goods_and_better_legal_guarantees.pdf

————

These types of measures can’t come soon enough.

[CA renter]

That was a very fascinating — and depressing — video, OCR. People have been discussing China’s ghost cities on housing bubble blogs for quite a few years, and I had read that they had slowed/stopped building these cities and that people had begun to move into them over the past few years. From this clip, it looks like that’s not the case.

It’s surreal to see how investment has been so grossly misallocated around the world. We have an oversupply on so many levels, yet we are continually told that we need more debt and more expansion.

I’ve been watching commodity prices over the years and found the price of copper to be rather telling.

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/copper.aspx?timeframe=10y

We desperately needed to deleverage after the dot.com bubble, and again after the housing bubble, but the central bank(s) didn’t allow that to happen. When it finally implodes, it could get ugly. IMHO, 2008 was just a preview of what can happen. Currency markets could get interesting going forward.

[ocrenter]

[quote=CA renter]That was a very fascinating — and depressing — video, OCR. People have been discussing China’s ghost cities on housing bubble blogs for quite a few years, and I had read that they had slowed/stopped building these cities and that people had begun to move into them over the past few years. From this clip, it looks like that’s not the case.

It’s surreal to see how investment has been so grossly misallocated around the world. We have an oversupply on so many levels, yet we are continually told that we need more debt and more expansion.

I’ve been watching commodity prices over the years and found the price of copper to be rather telling.

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/copper.aspx?timeframe=10y

We desperately needed to deleverage after the dot.com bubble, and again after the housing bubble, but the central bank(s) didn’t allow that to happen. When it finally implodes, it could get ugly. IMHO, 2008 was just a preview of what can happen. Currency markets could get interesting going forward.[/quote]

Thanks CAR, that is quite an interesting graph.

The way I look at it, China is overwhelmingly export dependent, specifically to the US and EU. After the global melt down, they were slowing down as well. But to keep pace with their predicted 7% GDP growth, they started their own money printing endeavor.

The way China is structured, Every city and province are given a predicted GDP growth rate that they will need to meet. If a governor or mayor doesn’t meet that target, there goes his political career. So somehow, every municipality meets that magical 7% predicted growth rate. The best way to achieve this of course is to build. And if there’s no money then you simply borrow. Once the buildings are constructed, then they need to be purchased by flippers, who also need borrowed money.

Someone mentioned the Chinese gov will somehow get people into these buildings. That would only happen after a complete financial meltdown and the state simply takes over ownership of entire ghost towns wholesale.

Maybe that’s their plan all along?!!! After all, they planned to use cheap and dirty coal, fully aware of the environmental catastrophe in stored. But figuring they’ll be rich enough to clean it up and rich enough to use renewables moving forward. Substitute cheap and dirty coal for cheap and dirty credit, and it all makes sense.

[The-Shoveler]

More than 50% of china’s population still lives in very rural villages, IMO they can continue build cities and back fill them with rural population for another 20-50 years.

It’s hard to grasp the situation even if you are on the ground, you can only see whats in front of you and not the big picture.

[Author]

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