Jobs vanish, unemployment drops … WTF?

[svelte]

My first reaction upon reading that jobs dropped and unemployment dropped was that people are starting to fall off of the unemployment rolls (without finding work) after becoming discouraged or maxing out the unemployment benefits.

[Aecetia]

Bingo.

[Aecetia]

Bingo.

[Aecetia]

Bingo.

[Aecetia]

Bingo.

[Aecetia]

Bingo.

[jeeman]

Like Mish predicts, once hiring turns around, the unemployment rate will skyrocket. This will be because of the 2 million or so who are not counted as unemployed currently will start looking again.

[jeeman]

Like Mish predicts, once hiring turns around, the unemployment rate will skyrocket. This will be because of the 2 million or so who are not counted as unemployed currently will start looking again.

[jeeman]

Like Mish predicts, once hiring turns around, the unemployment rate will skyrocket. This will be because of the 2 million or so who are not counted as unemployed currently will start looking again.

[jeeman]

Like Mish predicts, once hiring turns around, the unemployment rate will skyrocket. This will be because of the 2 million or so who are not counted as unemployed currently will start looking again.

[jeeman]

Like Mish predicts, once hiring turns around, the unemployment rate will skyrocket. This will be because of the 2 million or so who are not counted as unemployed currently will start looking again.

[Eugene]

“… the report shows an increase in the employment-population ratio, the percentage of adults who are working. What?

OK, the trick is that there are two different surveys. Payroll numbers come from a survey of firms; unemployment (and employment-population) numbers come from a survey of households. Both surveys are subject to error, both strict statistical sampling error and things like incomplete coverage, uncertain seasonal adjustments, and so on. When employment growth is near zero, on either side, it’s not that surprising that the surveys should point in opposite directions.”

[Eugene]

“… the report shows an increase in the employment-population ratio, the percentage of adults who are working. What?

OK, the trick is that there are two different surveys. Payroll numbers come from a survey of firms; unemployment (and employment-population) numbers come from a survey of households. Both surveys are subject to error, both strict statistical sampling error and things like incomplete coverage, uncertain seasonal adjustments, and so on. When employment growth is near zero, on either side, it’s not that surprising that the surveys should point in opposite directions.”

[Eugene]

“… the report shows an increase in the employment-population ratio, the percentage of adults who are working. What?

OK, the trick is that there are two different surveys. Payroll numbers come from a survey of firms; unemployment (and employment-population) numbers come from a survey of households. Both surveys are subject to error, both strict statistical sampling error and things like incomplete coverage, uncertain seasonal adjustments, and so on. When employment growth is near zero, on either side, it’s not that surprising that the surveys should point in opposite directions.”

[Eugene]

“… the report shows an increase in the employment-population ratio, the percentage of adults who are working. What?

OK, the trick is that there are two different surveys. Payroll numbers come from a survey of firms; unemployment (and employment-population) numbers come from a survey of households. Both surveys are subject to error, both strict statistical sampling error and things like incomplete coverage, uncertain seasonal adjustments, and so on. When employment growth is near zero, on either side, it’s not that surprising that the surveys should point in opposite directions.”

[Author]

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