Jobs vanish, unemployment drops … WTF?

[AK]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Payrolls unexpectedly fell in January, but the unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to a five-month low, according to a government report on Friday that hinted at labor market improvement.

The Labor Department said the economy shed 20,000 jobs after losing 150,000 jobs in December. November was revised to a gain of 64,000, up from 4,000. Annual benchmark revisions to payrolls data showed the economy has purged 8.4 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls gaining 5,000 and the unemployment rate to edge up to 10.1 percent in January from 10 percent. Median estimates from the top 20 forecasters expected payrolls to be unchanged last month.

OK, let me get this straight … analysts expected an increase in jobs but a rise in the unemployment rate. Instead payrolls decreased but unemployment decreased.

I freely admit to getting a lowly C+ in engineering statistics (hey, it was an 8 a.m. class) but somehow I expected a different type of covariance between payrolls and unemployment. Say, for example, one rises, the other drops.

[pencilneck]

The unemployment rate is a psychological indicator.

It counts only those who are unemployed and actively looking for work. The fact that fewer people are looking for work is not necessarily a good sign.

Relevant link:
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2010/02/05/the-real-unemployment-rate-3/

[pencilneck]

The unemployment rate is a psychological indicator.

It counts only those who are unemployed and actively looking for work. The fact that fewer people are looking for work is not necessarily a good sign.

Relevant link:
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2010/02/05/the-real-unemployment-rate-3/

[pencilneck]

The unemployment rate is a psychological indicator.

It counts only those who are unemployed and actively looking for work. The fact that fewer people are looking for work is not necessarily a good sign.

Relevant link:
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2010/02/05/the-real-unemployment-rate-3/

[pencilneck]

The unemployment rate is a psychological indicator.

It counts only those who are unemployed and actively looking for work. The fact that fewer people are looking for work is not necessarily a good sign.

Relevant link:
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2010/02/05/the-real-unemployment-rate-3/

[pencilneck]

The unemployment rate is a psychological indicator.

It counts only those who are unemployed and actively looking for work. The fact that fewer people are looking for work is not necessarily a good sign.

Relevant link:
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2010/02/05/the-real-unemployment-rate-3/

[Arraya]

IMO, the only number that means anything is total number employed, all else is noise, which has been going down.

Tax receipts tell the tale.

[Arraya]

IMO, the only number that means anything is total number employed, all else is noise, which has been going down.

Tax receipts tell the tale.

[Arraya]

IMO, the only number that means anything is total number employed, all else is noise, which has been going down.

Tax receipts tell the tale.

[Arraya]

IMO, the only number that means anything is total number employed, all else is noise, which has been going down.

Tax receipts tell the tale.

[Arraya]

IMO, the only number that means anything is total number employed, all else is noise, which has been going down.

Tax receipts tell the tale.

[svelte]

My first reaction upon reading that jobs dropped and unemployment dropped was that people are starting to fall off of the unemployment rolls (without finding work) after becoming discouraged or maxing out the unemployment benefits.

[svelte]

My first reaction upon reading that jobs dropped and unemployment dropped was that people are starting to fall off of the unemployment rolls (without finding work) after becoming discouraged or maxing out the unemployment benefits.

[svelte]

My first reaction upon reading that jobs dropped and unemployment dropped was that people are starting to fall off of the unemployment rolls (without finding work) after becoming discouraged or maxing out the unemployment benefits.

[svelte]

My first reaction upon reading that jobs dropped and unemployment dropped was that people are starting to fall off of the unemployment rolls (without finding work) after becoming discouraged or maxing out the unemployment benefits.

[Author]

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