It’s finally happened. Prices return to normal.

[flyer]

BG, I understand everything you’re saying, and I’m sure things will work out fine for you whether you decide to stay, or move to another location. From what you’ve posted here, it sounds like you’re in a position to make whatever choices you wish when the time comes.

My point was that, for those who are waiting for another “crash,” perhaps there will be another downturn, perhaps not, but, as you said, I seriously doubt that coastal CA (or within 10 miles or so of the coast) will EVER return to “bargain” pricing.

We’ve known quite a few people who wanted to come back after leaving San Diego, and were unable to replace what they had, not to mention the fact that many of the kids who have been raised here, cannot afford to buy here after they are out of the “nest.”

Wherever each of us decides to live–life is short–so enjoy it while you can!

[joec]

In the UT today:
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/jul/11/china-golf-juniors-junior-world/

More CV homes being bought up for Chinese golfer kids!

[spdrun]

All the more reason to hope for the Chinese stock crisis to deepen over the next few months. Broke people can’t buy homes abroad.

[an]

If the 2008 crash teach me anything, the rich are the ones who will benefit most from big crashes. They’re also the one who are buying CV houses, so spdrun, I funny why you’re rooting for deeper crash when it allow the wealthy to have an even better opportunity to get even wealthier.

[spdrun]

And that’s exactly why I’m rooting for it. The interim period where everyone is running scared will be one of opportunity for everyone else 🙂

[an]

[quote=spdrun]And that’s exactly why I’m rooting for it. The interim period where everyone is running scared will be one of opportunity for everyone else :)[/quote]You don’t get it. What I’m saying is, the Chinese nationals who are buying places like CV, Malabu, SF, NYC, etc. won’t be running scared. They will just sell their Chinese stocks and buy even more US RE. So, no opportunity for you. You don’t play in their league.

[flyer]

[quote=joec]In the UT today:
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/jul/11/china-golf-juniors-junior-world/

More CV homes being bought up for Chinese golfer kids![/quote]

Read that also, joec.

Back when we were growing up in LJ and playing in in all of the golf and tennis tournaments as kids, even then, there were quite a few kids from various countries competing, and our kids saw this as well during their years of competition.

As we all know, CA has what most of the world wants, so it will be interesting to see what affect this particular trend has on our local economy going forward.

[joec]

[quote=flyer][quote=joec]In the UT today:
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/jul/11/china-golf-juniors-junior-world/

More CV homes being bought up for Chinese golfer kids![/quote]

Read that also, joec.

Back when we were growing up in LJ and playing in in all of the golf and tennis tournaments as kids, even then, there were quite a few kids from various countries competing, and our kids saw this as well during their years of competition.

As we all know, CA has what most of the world wants, so it will be interesting to see what affect this particular trend has on our local economy going forward.[/quote]

Forgot to add that as a data point, I actually have extended family that COMES to San Diego every summer with the kids to join these youth golf tourneys. They say their kid is so great at it, but who knows…

…so it really does appear to happen.

[spdrun]

AN: chaos at the top often trickles down.

[fun4vnay2]

My other SFH houses ( 2 in PQ/SR) are in the market and I had bit high expectations based on appreciation and thus priced them bit higher but looks like no luck so far for me. I see stagnancy all over now in comparison with last year

I agree: with crash the rich benefits the most.

[phaster]

[quote=spdrun]All the more reason to hope for the Chinese stock crisis to deepen over the next few months. Broke people can’t buy homes abroad.[/quote]

be careful what you wish for…

I mention this because the world has never been more economically integrated, there are going to be chaotic economic affects for the US economy if the Chinese stock market implodes.

consider for example if aspiring consumers in china suddenly feel like not traveling because they feel much poorer because of the stock market (it will have affects on US manufacturing)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/2015/06/12/thanks-china-boeing-gleefully-increases-forecast-for-jetliner-sales-to-5-6-trillion/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2015/01/27/caterpillar-forecasts-9-sales-decline-in-2015/

[CA renter]

A bit late to this thread, but having watched these cycles in LA, it was “different this time” back then, too.

In the 80s, we had the Japanese and the Iranians (TONS of money) pouring into the RE market. On the other side of BG’s interest rate issue were the creditors who were making 8-12% on their earnings, even in “safe” bonds and regular savings accounts! The stock market had started rising, and there was a general sense of panic as people were worried about inflation and being priced out of assets, so lots of people were heavily into buying real estate in those days, too.

Then, the market peaked in 1989/1990 (yes, it was a bubble), and prices fell anywhere from 30-50%, much like the crash in 2007-2009, even in some of the most desirable neighborhoods like Malibu and Beverly Hills.

There are a number of possible issues that could trigger another collapse. Our interest rates are near historical lows (meaning there is more room to the upside than downside), and national debt levels are so much higher now than they’ve been throughout most of our recent history…

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FDHBFRBN

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

With household debt being at rather low levels, interestingly enough…

Debt Service as a percentage of disposable personal income:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TDSP

And HH debt to GDP:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N

[fun4vnay2]

real estate in socal would never go down.
it’d always go up barring once a decade when it busts..
everyone from all over world wants to live here and this time is truly different 🙂

[The-Shoveler]

It may not be different, BUT it maybe early yet in the cycle.

It maybe more like 1999 than 2006 .

Yea, so its probably not different this time.

[flyer]

In the world of CA real estate anything can happen. Imo, the only real answer is to make sure you’ve positioned yourself so the fluctuations really don’t matter one way or the other.

[Author]

Posts