Is 25 – 30% off a good deal?

[Eugene]

Remember you need to subtract:

A. Real-estate related job losses.

B. Local economy job losses due to the above as well as the disappearance of the “house as ATM” effect.

Given that something like 25% of our employment is in the RE sector, I can see at least a 30-40% decline in the median income until we hit bottom.

RE sector employment is less than 25%, and unemployment in that sector is still far from 100%. According to http://piggington.com/october_employment_0, construction, finance, and retail lost only 4,000 jobs since October ’06.

Back to census.gov

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&-context=dt&-ds_name=ACS_2006_EST_G00_&-CONTEXT=dt&-mt_name=ACS_2006_EST_G2000_B24050&-mt_name=ACS_2006_EST_G2000_B24070&-tree_id=306&-redoLog=false&-geo_id=31000US41740&-geo_id=NBSP&-search_results=01000US&-format=&-_lang=en&-SubjectID=14830196

Out of 1.3m jobs, 117,089 are in construction; 64,846 are in finance and insurance; 40,443 in “real estate and rental and leasing”. Much of “finance and insurance” is not related to RE. “Real estate and rental and leasing” includes employees of apartment complexes, commercial RE, etc.

[Eugene]

Remember you need to subtract:

A. Real-estate related job losses.

B. Local economy job losses due to the above as well as the disappearance of the “house as ATM” effect.

Given that something like 25% of our employment is in the RE sector, I can see at least a 30-40% decline in the median income until we hit bottom.

RE sector employment is less than 25%, and unemployment in that sector is still far from 100%. According to http://piggington.com/october_employment_0, construction, finance, and retail lost only 4,000 jobs since October ’06.

Back to census.gov

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&-context=dt&-ds_name=ACS_2006_EST_G00_&-CONTEXT=dt&-mt_name=ACS_2006_EST_G2000_B24050&-mt_name=ACS_2006_EST_G2000_B24070&-tree_id=306&-redoLog=false&-geo_id=31000US41740&-geo_id=NBSP&-search_results=01000US&-format=&-_lang=en&-SubjectID=14830196

Out of 1.3m jobs, 117,089 are in construction; 64,846 are in finance and insurance; 40,443 in “real estate and rental and leasing”. Much of “finance and insurance” is not related to RE. “Real estate and rental and leasing” includes employees of apartment complexes, commercial RE, etc.

[Eugene]

How much of that is due to the housing boom? I suspect we won’t know until at least the 2009-2010 numbers come out.

Probably half of it. Here are some places that didn’t have a housing boom.

Charlotte: 13% ($53,868 to $61,061)
Dallas-Fort Worth: 12% ($55,016 to $61,596)
Denver: 11% ($61,088 to $68,081)
Portland: 19% ($54,171 to $64,316)

[Eugene]

How much of that is due to the housing boom? I suspect we won’t know until at least the 2009-2010 numbers come out.

Probably half of it. Here are some places that didn’t have a housing boom.

Charlotte: 13% ($53,868 to $61,061)
Dallas-Fort Worth: 12% ($55,016 to $61,596)
Denver: 11% ($61,088 to $68,081)
Portland: 19% ($54,171 to $64,316)

[Eugene]

How much of that is due to the housing boom? I suspect we won’t know until at least the 2009-2010 numbers come out.

Probably half of it. Here are some places that didn’t have a housing boom.

Charlotte: 13% ($53,868 to $61,061)
Dallas-Fort Worth: 12% ($55,016 to $61,596)
Denver: 11% ($61,088 to $68,081)
Portland: 19% ($54,171 to $64,316)

[Eugene]

How much of that is due to the housing boom? I suspect we won’t know until at least the 2009-2010 numbers come out.

Probably half of it. Here are some places that didn’t have a housing boom.

Charlotte: 13% ($53,868 to $61,061)
Dallas-Fort Worth: 12% ($55,016 to $61,596)
Denver: 11% ($61,088 to $68,081)
Portland: 19% ($54,171 to $64,316)

[Eugene]

How much of that is due to the housing boom? I suspect we won’t know until at least the 2009-2010 numbers come out.

Probably half of it. Here are some places that didn’t have a housing boom.

Charlotte: 13% ($53,868 to $61,061)
Dallas-Fort Worth: 12% ($55,016 to $61,596)
Denver: 11% ($61,088 to $68,081)
Portland: 19% ($54,171 to $64,316)

[Eugene]

How much of that is due to the housing boom? I suspect we won’t know until at least the 2009-2010 numbers come out.

Probably half of it. Here are some places that didn’t have a housing boom.

Charlotte: 13% ($53,868 to $61,061)
Dallas-Fort Worth: 12% ($55,016 to $61,596)
Denver: 11% ($61,088 to $68,081)
Portland: 19% ($54,171 to $64,316)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Keynesian economics at its finest!

let’s debase the money supply (call it inflation if you must) so everyone can earn more money and live in a house that costs more

This seems to me a likely outcome.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Keynesian economics at its finest!

let’s debase the money supply (call it inflation if you must) so everyone can earn more money and live in a house that costs more

This seems to me a likely outcome.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Keynesian economics at its finest!

let’s debase the money supply (call it inflation if you must) so everyone can earn more money and live in a house that costs more

This seems to me a likely outcome.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Keynesian economics at its finest!

let’s debase the money supply (call it inflation if you must) so everyone can earn more money and live in a house that costs more

This seems to me a likely outcome.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Keynesian economics at its finest!

let’s debase the money supply (call it inflation if you must) so everyone can earn more money and live in a house that costs more

This seems to me a likely outcome.

[Author]

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