Interest Rates Gone Wild

[ibjames]

“I personally think people would be MORE productive if they didn’t waste their entire days in a cubicle.”

AND reading blogs 😉

[ibjames]

“I personally think people would be MORE productive if they didn’t waste their entire days in a cubicle.”

AND reading blogs 😉

[SDowner]

I personally think people would be MORE productive if they didn’t waste their entire days in a cubicle.”

AND reading blogs 😉

and getting addicted

SDowner

[SDowner]

I personally think people would be MORE productive if they didn’t waste their entire days in a cubicle.”

AND reading blogs 😉

and getting addicted

SDowner

[temeculaguy]

Chris, you make a good point in looking at rates in 25 year cycles, maybe that is it. I didn’t research rates beyond the 1970’s nor did I do any research actually, just went off my observations of the last 4 decades. I am not in the industry, just a guy who had bought a few houses and had a few loans, I had an adjustable in the early 1990’s so I started to pay attention then. But in those 40 years it has gone up and down and yes it has trended downward overall in the last 25 years. When Reagan took office, prime was 20%. This article from time magazine in 1982 goes into some specifics and speaks of 6% mortgages as the halcyon days (golden days). My comments were just that golden days rarely become forever. I just thing that hoping that rates will always be low is the same as thinking real estate will always go up. The cycle may be longer but it is still a cycle.

http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,921251,00.html

[temeculaguy]

Chris, you make a good point in looking at rates in 25 year cycles, maybe that is it. I didn’t research rates beyond the 1970’s nor did I do any research actually, just went off my observations of the last 4 decades. I am not in the industry, just a guy who had bought a few houses and had a few loans, I had an adjustable in the early 1990’s so I started to pay attention then. But in those 40 years it has gone up and down and yes it has trended downward overall in the last 25 years. When Reagan took office, prime was 20%. This article from time magazine in 1982 goes into some specifics and speaks of 6% mortgages as the halcyon days (golden days). My comments were just that golden days rarely become forever. I just thing that hoping that rates will always be low is the same as thinking real estate will always go up. The cycle may be longer but it is still a cycle.

http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,921251,00.html

[Anonymous]

Study: Housing grows even less affordable
Even on the downside of the housing price peak, housing expenses are becoming more of a burden for Americans.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/13/real_estate/housing_costs_even_less_affordable/index.htm

Rate woes: The latest hit to home values

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/13/news/economy/mortgage_rates_housing/index.htm?postversion=2007061315

[Anonymous]

Study: Housing grows even less affordable
Even on the downside of the housing price peak, housing expenses are becoming more of a burden for Americans.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/13/real_estate/housing_costs_even_less_affordable/index.htm

Rate woes: The latest hit to home values

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/13/news/economy/mortgage_rates_housing/index.htm?postversion=2007061315

[patientrenter]

Chris, I’m curious about your “big-picture patterns” causing a “major low in price” that’s coming “shortly”.

It sounds enticing and very mysterious, but it doesn’t give me much help in seeing what you’re thinking. What patterns do you have in mind? How high will the 10-T rate go? How soon is shortly?

Doubtless the 10-T rate will be higher at some time in the future than it is today, and that’s a big thing, so doubtless it will have a big reason, and the time it takes will be short on some time scale. But I know that kind of meaningless prediction is not what you’re saying.

Forgive me if you’ve already spelt all this out elsewhere on this blog, and please point me there.

PatientRenter in OC

[patientrenter]

Chris, I’m curious about your “big-picture patterns” causing a “major low in price” that’s coming “shortly”.

It sounds enticing and very mysterious, but it doesn’t give me much help in seeing what you’re thinking. What patterns do you have in mind? How high will the 10-T rate go? How soon is shortly?

Doubtless the 10-T rate will be higher at some time in the future than it is today, and that’s a big thing, so doubtless it will have a big reason, and the time it takes will be short on some time scale. But I know that kind of meaningless prediction is not what you’re saying.

Forgive me if you’ve already spelt all this out elsewhere on this blog, and please point me there.

PatientRenter in OC

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

patientrenter

By Big Picture, I mean this year, so I am saying that the low for the year in price( high in yield ) is near. It is a very reliable seasonal pattern in Bonds, for the market to make it’s yearly low in the June/July time frame. Then typically a rally occurs ( drop in rates ) through the end of the year.

There are cyclical economic reasons as to why this happens, but I focus mostly on what happens and trying to take advantage of it, as opposed to getting too tied up in the analysis of the why, etc..

I do not know what yield will correspond with the low, but I would guess not much higher than the current, no more than 1/4% more. I am not in the camp that assumes that the 10 yr rate will necessarily be higher than it is now at a later date. Based on the long term downtrend in rates if you look at weekly and monthly charts of them, we could easily be lower in 2 years than we are now.

However, my comments were mostly based on what is likely to happen between now and the end of 2007. It is not meant to be a mysterious comment, but the full explanation of this pattern is more than I am prepared to go into here. I was just trying to add some insight from a traders perspective.

As I have stated before, and always believe, I could be wrong.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

patientrenter

By Big Picture, I mean this year, so I am saying that the low for the year in price( high in yield ) is near. It is a very reliable seasonal pattern in Bonds, for the market to make it’s yearly low in the June/July time frame. Then typically a rally occurs ( drop in rates ) through the end of the year.

There are cyclical economic reasons as to why this happens, but I focus mostly on what happens and trying to take advantage of it, as opposed to getting too tied up in the analysis of the why, etc..

I do not know what yield will correspond with the low, but I would guess not much higher than the current, no more than 1/4% more. I am not in the camp that assumes that the 10 yr rate will necessarily be higher than it is now at a later date. Based on the long term downtrend in rates if you look at weekly and monthly charts of them, we could easily be lower in 2 years than we are now.

However, my comments were mostly based on what is likely to happen between now and the end of 2007. It is not meant to be a mysterious comment, but the full explanation of this pattern is more than I am prepared to go into here. I was just trying to add some insight from a traders perspective.

As I have stated before, and always believe, I could be wrong.

[Coronita]

I would say that anyone hoping for double digit interest rates is asking for alot more then just low housing prices because if rates are up in the double digits, we will be having alot more to deal with then just housing topics. Be careful what you ask for. SD Realtor

 

Um, that's exactly what I tried to say in another thread. SD Realtor, you are so much more eloquent than me.

 

If a mortgage interest is double digits, can you imagine the cost of borrowing for other things? Let's see, credit card aprs are like 19% right now… Uh wait 30%+ aprs? Say goodbye to that 0.5% cash financing on cars (oh, wait, by then GM/Ford will probably be gone). Corporations of course will of course figure out a way to pass all their higher borrowing costs to consumers someone.  

 

[Coronita]

I would say that anyone hoping for double digit interest rates is asking for alot more then just low housing prices because if rates are up in the double digits, we will be having alot more to deal with then just housing topics. Be careful what you ask for. SD Realtor

 

Um, that's exactly what I tried to say in another thread. SD Realtor, you are so much more eloquent than me.

 

If a mortgage interest is double digits, can you imagine the cost of borrowing for other things? Let's see, credit card aprs are like 19% right now… Uh wait 30%+ aprs? Say goodbye to that 0.5% cash financing on cars (oh, wait, by then GM/Ford will probably be gone). Corporations of course will of course figure out a way to pass all their higher borrowing costs to consumers someone.  

 

[Alex_angel]

rates still going up. Looks like a bunch of homes will be sitting on the market for a long time.

[Author]

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