Interest Rates Gone Wild

[temeculaguy]

How could a group of highly intelligent people who all see that housing cannot remain beyond normal highs and not see that interest rates cannot remain beyond normal lows. Look around, you people are are the ones who did homework and still do it. Regardless of your age, education or wealth, you find it entertaining to do more in your free time than is required to get a degree in economics. Almost everyone here will be successful, whatever the future brings because you are not the ones who wait to do what experts tell you, in many cases I’ve seen more insight in some of your writings than mainstream media writers. I won’t cite all the reason rates are required to return to at least a normal rate, regardless of what the fed or the federal government wants. It just is, accept that cycles exist and they do what they are supposed to, cycle. Low rates are good for some, bad for others, high rates, the same. Rising housing prices are good for some, bad for others, low prices, the same. The most obvious part of this patern is that it is a patern, do I have to quote some Lao Tzu to get you to realize that cycles have always existed.

Stop worrying, do what Perry says and figure out how to make whatever comes work to your advantage, life may give you lemons, oranges or apples, who cares, just figure out how to make juice.

[jeeman]

HereWeGo,

Thanks for the encouragement. There is money to be made in bull market AND bear markets, bubbles and busts! The trick is the timing, which I am no good at! 🙂

I have been reading piggington.com for about 3-4 years now. I’ve only jumped in and started posting. I’ve pointed so many people to this website and they would not believe that RE can go down in SD. They are starting to believe it, but only to the tune of 10% max. Even with reasoned explanations, I get retorts like “the sun tax” or “everybody wants to live here”, which are emotionally based reasons. I don’t see 300 million people living in San Diego, and until I do, fundamentals matter.

I hope you do well in your real estate hunting in the next few years. I have a feeling I’ll from zero properties to a house and a few strategic condos in 2010.

Jeeman

[jeeman]

HereWeGo,

Thanks for the encouragement. There is money to be made in bull market AND bear markets, bubbles and busts! The trick is the timing, which I am no good at! 🙂

I have been reading piggington.com for about 3-4 years now. I’ve only jumped in and started posting. I’ve pointed so many people to this website and they would not believe that RE can go down in SD. They are starting to believe it, but only to the tune of 10% max. Even with reasoned explanations, I get retorts like “the sun tax” or “everybody wants to live here”, which are emotionally based reasons. I don’t see 300 million people living in San Diego, and until I do, fundamentals matter.

I hope you do well in your real estate hunting in the next few years. I have a feeling I’ll from zero properties to a house and a few strategic condos in 2010.

Jeeman

[SD Realtor]

Capeman I like your response. It is well thought out and makes sense. What you wrote is the point I am trying to make. That in a very high interest rate environment there are likely to be many challenging aspects to life in addition to cheaper home prices. Like everyone else I want housing to become affordable. Yet when I see people saying things like yay I can’t wait until rates are sky high so I can afford a home, it just kind of seems to me that those statements are being made without much thought.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Capeman I like your response. It is well thought out and makes sense. What you wrote is the point I am trying to make. That in a very high interest rate environment there are likely to be many challenging aspects to life in addition to cheaper home prices. Like everyone else I want housing to become affordable. Yet when I see people saying things like yay I can’t wait until rates are sky high so I can afford a home, it just kind of seems to me that those statements are being made without much thought.

SD Realtor

[capeman]

Your right. There are always people throwing their arms up in the air waiting for the apocalypse to throw things their way. You also have the defensives claiming bottom to protect their investments. I am not one to want to see hardship for anyone but I am very interested in the economic teachings that will be made from all of this. It is all very interesting to watch and although I’ve stayed out of the cycle I have also tried my best to steer others into observing rather than jumping into the endlessly deep pool. Rational thought and arguments have been the most useful in convincing the few folks I have. It is also the only argument winner when most people always throw books of emotional based retorts back at you. One thing is for sure they will teach entire classes on the economics of the last 10-12 years. It will make a great story with some winners and unfortunately too many losers.

cheers,

chris

[capeman]

Your right. There are always people throwing their arms up in the air waiting for the apocalypse to throw things their way. You also have the defensives claiming bottom to protect their investments. I am not one to want to see hardship for anyone but I am very interested in the economic teachings that will be made from all of this. It is all very interesting to watch and although I’ve stayed out of the cycle I have also tried my best to steer others into observing rather than jumping into the endlessly deep pool. Rational thought and arguments have been the most useful in convincing the few folks I have. It is also the only argument winner when most people always throw books of emotional based retorts back at you. One thing is for sure they will teach entire classes on the economics of the last 10-12 years. It will make a great story with some winners and unfortunately too many losers.

cheers,

chris

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

temecula guy

How would you define a normal rate? The Bond Market has been in a substantial uptrend for close to 25 years, which is inversely related to rates. So we have been in a declining rate environment for 25 years ( the lows in price/highs in yield, were made in 82 ). Where would you identify a normal rate, 1/4 of the way, 1/2, 3/4, etc.. It is not as if we have see sawed up and down for 20 years and are at the lows, we have gone straight down for a long period, so finding a normal rate is no easy chore.

I do not have this answer, but I suspect rates will stay low for a very long time, just based on it being such a long term trend. We are close to making a high in rates right now I believe, there are some big picture patterns that are going to enter in to the picture shortly calling for a major low in price ( high in rates ).

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

temecula guy

How would you define a normal rate? The Bond Market has been in a substantial uptrend for close to 25 years, which is inversely related to rates. So we have been in a declining rate environment for 25 years ( the lows in price/highs in yield, were made in 82 ). Where would you identify a normal rate, 1/4 of the way, 1/2, 3/4, etc.. It is not as if we have see sawed up and down for 20 years and are at the lows, we have gone straight down for a long period, so finding a normal rate is no easy chore.

I do not have this answer, but I suspect rates will stay low for a very long time, just based on it being such a long term trend. We are close to making a high in rates right now I believe, there are some big picture patterns that are going to enter in to the picture shortly calling for a major low in price ( high in rates ).

[jeeman]

Stan,

I owe you an apology. I hastily read your post and realized you cut+pasted a snippet from a Realtor’s newsletter. So my comments are really directed to that ignoramus, lol.

Jeeman

[jeeman]

Stan,

I owe you an apology. I hastily read your post and realized you cut+pasted a snippet from a Realtor’s newsletter. So my comments are really directed to that ignoramus, lol.

Jeeman

[cr]

“Right, the universal healthcare and higher quality of life comes about when the rich are paying for your desire to work 3 hours and then take a 3 hour nap and then hopefully go back to work if you’re not too busy drinking your mid-afternoon wine.”

Actually France is higher in per hour productivity than the US.

That’s something against our obession with 27 hour works days.

I personally think people would be MORE productive if they didn’t waste their entire days in a cubicle. It’s sad, we spend more time with co-workers than family. Then we wonder why our society is going to the toilet.

[cr]

“Right, the universal healthcare and higher quality of life comes about when the rich are paying for your desire to work 3 hours and then take a 3 hour nap and then hopefully go back to work if you’re not too busy drinking your mid-afternoon wine.”

Actually France is higher in per hour productivity than the US.

That’s something against our obession with 27 hour works days.

I personally think people would be MORE productive if they didn’t waste their entire days in a cubicle. It’s sad, we spend more time with co-workers than family. Then we wonder why our society is going to the toilet.

[kewp]

i dunno. i’d like to think of human knowledge as being the sum of pie in the sky projects. otherwise, we’d all still be digging for grubs and picking wild berries.

Exactly. Every technical innovation starts as a ‘pie in the sky’ project. Doesn’t mean every pie is going to turn out as a billion-dollar idea, though!

[kewp]

i dunno. i’d like to think of human knowledge as being the sum of pie in the sky projects. otherwise, we’d all still be digging for grubs and picking wild berries.

Exactly. Every technical innovation starts as a ‘pie in the sky’ project. Doesn’t mean every pie is going to turn out as a billion-dollar idea, though!

[Author]

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