Inflation as a risk factor; it may be time to buy soon

[Sandi Egan]

I agree with AN.
Hyperinflation is not going to prop up the RE values until after the recession, when economy (and salaries) start to grow again. Until then it’s rather downward pressure, since people have to pay for commodities and don’t have to buy housing.

[bonfire]

Dow looks like V-Fib today if it were an EKG-(not good!). That’s what I thought when looking at the ol’ ticker this morning. Felt like I was back working in the ICU. I don’t know if I will buy yet, this patient is too unstable!

[bonfire]

Dow looks like V-Fib today if it were an EKG-(not good!). That’s what I thought when looking at the ol’ ticker this morning. Felt like I was back working in the ICU. I don’t know if I will buy yet, this patient is too unstable!

[bonfire]

Dow looks like V-Fib today if it were an EKG-(not good!). That’s what I thought when looking at the ol’ ticker this morning. Felt like I was back working in the ICU. I don’t know if I will buy yet, this patient is too unstable!

[bonfire]

Dow looks like V-Fib today if it were an EKG-(not good!). That’s what I thought when looking at the ol’ ticker this morning. Felt like I was back working in the ICU. I don’t know if I will buy yet, this patient is too unstable!

[bonfire]

Dow looks like V-Fib today if it were an EKG-(not good!). That’s what I thought when looking at the ol’ ticker this morning. Felt like I was back working in the ICU. I don’t know if I will buy yet, this patient is too unstable!

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[stockstradr]

Well, I won’t post today about how much money I’m making in the stock market recently. These days I’m getting my butt kicked in the stock market.

I re-established my 2X leveraged short positions in a BIG way when the S&P 500 was about 5% LOWER than it is today. I cannot believe this stock market is heading over 1400 on the S&P 500. ON paper I’ve lost 10% in last 30 days across my portfolio. (It also hasn’t helped I didn’t sell my gold at $1,000/ounce, and I kept those short oil positions.)

However, I’m keeping the faith on a deepening recession taking the markets down at least 10% from here. I’m taking on more short positions, and looking at again buying put options on the indexes.

I look for markets or specific stocks which are at irrational extremes relative to underlying economic and financial conditions. I think the stock market rising (10% in 45 days on the S&P500) in this economy is irrational and it will correct downwards over 10%, probably over 20%.

[EconProf]

BobS
Stockstrader: Everything you say sounds on target, at least in theory. You may have been around in the 1970s and 1980s when those homeowners who had old fixed rate 30 year loans way below prevailing rates of inflation were “the smartest guys in the room”. If it was a VA rate at say, 5%, when everyone was getting a new loan at 12%, and said loan could be passed on to any buyer of the property, this actually boosted the value of the property considerably.
The inflationary scenario you portray looks entirely plausable; the only question I have is why aren’t long term rates higher now. Investors aren’t irrational (usually). Who would be crazy enough to buy a 30 year government bond today @ 5%, or lend on a 30 year mortgage @ 6%. Yet those are today’s rates.
I agree with your thesis, I just don’t yet see the market supporting it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Stockstrader: Everything you say sounds on target, at least in theory. You may have been around in the 1970s and 1980s when those homeowners who had old fixed rate 30 year loans way below prevailing rates of inflation were “the smartest guys in the room”. If it was a VA rate at say, 5%, when everyone was getting a new loan at 12%, and said loan could be passed on to any buyer of the property, this actually boosted the value of the property considerably.
The inflationary scenario you portray looks entirely plausable; the only question I have is why aren’t long term rates higher now. Investors aren’t irrational (usually). Who would be crazy enough to buy a 30 year government bond today @ 5%, or lend on a 30 year mortgage @ 6%. Yet those are today’s rates.
I agree with your thesis, I just don’t yet see the market supporting it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Stockstrader: Everything you say sounds on target, at least in theory. You may have been around in the 1970s and 1980s when those homeowners who had old fixed rate 30 year loans way below prevailing rates of inflation were “the smartest guys in the room”. If it was a VA rate at say, 5%, when everyone was getting a new loan at 12%, and said loan could be passed on to any buyer of the property, this actually boosted the value of the property considerably.
The inflationary scenario you portray looks entirely plausable; the only question I have is why aren’t long term rates higher now. Investors aren’t irrational (usually). Who would be crazy enough to buy a 30 year government bond today @ 5%, or lend on a 30 year mortgage @ 6%. Yet those are today’s rates.
I agree with your thesis, I just don’t yet see the market supporting it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Stockstrader: Everything you say sounds on target, at least in theory. You may have been around in the 1970s and 1980s when those homeowners who had old fixed rate 30 year loans way below prevailing rates of inflation were “the smartest guys in the room”. If it was a VA rate at say, 5%, when everyone was getting a new loan at 12%, and said loan could be passed on to any buyer of the property, this actually boosted the value of the property considerably.
The inflationary scenario you portray looks entirely plausable; the only question I have is why aren’t long term rates higher now. Investors aren’t irrational (usually). Who would be crazy enough to buy a 30 year government bond today @ 5%, or lend on a 30 year mortgage @ 6%. Yet those are today’s rates.
I agree with your thesis, I just don’t yet see the market supporting it.

[Author]

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