Inflation as a risk factor; it may be time to buy soon

[SHILOH]

“”The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience.”

Kinda like: “the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.”

So if this house market collapse is anything like past ones – it’s not time to buy.

[JWM in SD]

“Thus requiring more dollars to buy goods and services).”

Yes, but whose hands are those dollars largely in? The consuming public or Banks/ Wall Street? It is the banks and they are hoarding it because they don’t know who amongst their colleagues are actually insolvent (Assets less their Liabilities). Bernanke is just throwing liquidity at a solvency issue that will ultimately result in a violent mark down of somekind in some way or another. This is ultimately why I know that housing market is toast over the next several years. When I harp on the knowing the Big Picture, this is one of the components of it.

“However, it is difficult for me to turn off the empirical evidence I see every day in my life when I buy milk, gas, and food as well as when I see broad measures of money supply numbers increase. BUt I do have an open mind, and I do see that the strictness of credit is clearly deflationary.”

Switch to an Austrian definition of Inflation / Deflation and then it becomes much easier to see how we end up in a NET Deflationary scenario. Price Increases are an effect and often a temporary one.

“I guess we will know how it turns out as things unfold over the next few years. We can argue all we want, but as Milton Friedman said, “The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience.”

Point taken…we shall see.

[JWM in SD]

“Thus requiring more dollars to buy goods and services).”

Yes, but whose hands are those dollars largely in? The consuming public or Banks/ Wall Street? It is the banks and they are hoarding it because they don’t know who amongst their colleagues are actually insolvent (Assets less their Liabilities). Bernanke is just throwing liquidity at a solvency issue that will ultimately result in a violent mark down of somekind in some way or another. This is ultimately why I know that housing market is toast over the next several years. When I harp on the knowing the Big Picture, this is one of the components of it.

“However, it is difficult for me to turn off the empirical evidence I see every day in my life when I buy milk, gas, and food as well as when I see broad measures of money supply numbers increase. BUt I do have an open mind, and I do see that the strictness of credit is clearly deflationary.”

Switch to an Austrian definition of Inflation / Deflation and then it becomes much easier to see how we end up in a NET Deflationary scenario. Price Increases are an effect and often a temporary one.

“I guess we will know how it turns out as things unfold over the next few years. We can argue all we want, but as Milton Friedman said, “The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience.”

Point taken…we shall see.

[JWM in SD]

“Thus requiring more dollars to buy goods and services).”

Yes, but whose hands are those dollars largely in? The consuming public or Banks/ Wall Street? It is the banks and they are hoarding it because they don’t know who amongst their colleagues are actually insolvent (Assets less their Liabilities). Bernanke is just throwing liquidity at a solvency issue that will ultimately result in a violent mark down of somekind in some way or another. This is ultimately why I know that housing market is toast over the next several years. When I harp on the knowing the Big Picture, this is one of the components of it.

“However, it is difficult for me to turn off the empirical evidence I see every day in my life when I buy milk, gas, and food as well as when I see broad measures of money supply numbers increase. BUt I do have an open mind, and I do see that the strictness of credit is clearly deflationary.”

Switch to an Austrian definition of Inflation / Deflation and then it becomes much easier to see how we end up in a NET Deflationary scenario. Price Increases are an effect and often a temporary one.

“I guess we will know how it turns out as things unfold over the next few years. We can argue all we want, but as Milton Friedman said, “The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience.”

Point taken…we shall see.

[JWM in SD]

“Thus requiring more dollars to buy goods and services).”

Yes, but whose hands are those dollars largely in? The consuming public or Banks/ Wall Street? It is the banks and they are hoarding it because they don’t know who amongst their colleagues are actually insolvent (Assets less their Liabilities). Bernanke is just throwing liquidity at a solvency issue that will ultimately result in a violent mark down of somekind in some way or another. This is ultimately why I know that housing market is toast over the next several years. When I harp on the knowing the Big Picture, this is one of the components of it.

“However, it is difficult for me to turn off the empirical evidence I see every day in my life when I buy milk, gas, and food as well as when I see broad measures of money supply numbers increase. BUt I do have an open mind, and I do see that the strictness of credit is clearly deflationary.”

Switch to an Austrian definition of Inflation / Deflation and then it becomes much easier to see how we end up in a NET Deflationary scenario. Price Increases are an effect and often a temporary one.

“I guess we will know how it turns out as things unfold over the next few years. We can argue all we want, but as Milton Friedman said, “The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience.”

Point taken…we shall see.

[JWM in SD]

“Thus requiring more dollars to buy goods and services).”

Yes, but whose hands are those dollars largely in? The consuming public or Banks/ Wall Street? It is the banks and they are hoarding it because they don’t know who amongst their colleagues are actually insolvent (Assets less their Liabilities). Bernanke is just throwing liquidity at a solvency issue that will ultimately result in a violent mark down of somekind in some way or another. This is ultimately why I know that housing market is toast over the next several years. When I harp on the knowing the Big Picture, this is one of the components of it.

“However, it is difficult for me to turn off the empirical evidence I see every day in my life when I buy milk, gas, and food as well as when I see broad measures of money supply numbers increase. BUt I do have an open mind, and I do see that the strictness of credit is clearly deflationary.”

Switch to an Austrian definition of Inflation / Deflation and then it becomes much easier to see how we end up in a NET Deflationary scenario. Price Increases are an effect and often a temporary one.

“I guess we will know how it turns out as things unfold over the next few years. We can argue all we want, but as Milton Friedman said, “The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience.”

Point taken…we shall see.

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