Ideas for short-term trades? Where are markets headed?

[Coronita]

Can’t put a price on personal enjoyment that is/can be afforded.

Especially the ‘Valley is getting hit pretty hard in some areas. (excluding the exclusives like Presido or Pacific Height,etc).

I wouldn’t mind buying a home on the Foster City waterfronts in case I ever move back to the Valley. (Even though I know Foster City was a marshal land way back, when no one wanted to live there, there are ample power lines, and that the lagoon is really man made)….Sounds almost like….Torrey Hills!!!

Had an opportunity to buy a town home for $300k there once upon a time. Oops…

Thread Hijack: you followed what happened to the guy that went postal in Santa Clara? There’s speculation that he was knee deep in trouble. Articles suggest he had 10 homes he had purchased, and his spouse was laid off from Sun and he got canned I guess tipped him over the iceberg. Sad… Side note: don’t be an ass in front of people about a market correction for your own safety.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Buy a house, take out a second mortgage and back up the truck and load it up on financials, REITS, home builders and retails stocks (long). Also, short oil once it drops below 50 again and put any extra cash into long-term treasuries.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Buy a house, take out a second mortgage and back up the truck and load it up on financials, REITS, home builders and retails stocks (long). Also, short oil once it drops below 50 again and put any extra cash into long-term treasuries.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Buy a house, take out a second mortgage and back up the truck and load it up on financials, REITS, home builders and retails stocks (long). Also, short oil once it drops below 50 again and put any extra cash into long-term treasuries.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Buy a house, take out a second mortgage and back up the truck and load it up on financials, REITS, home builders and retails stocks (long). Also, short oil once it drops below 50 again and put any extra cash into long-term treasuries.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Buy a house, take out a second mortgage and back up the truck and load it up on financials, REITS, home builders and retails stocks (long). Also, short oil once it drops below 50 again and put any extra cash into long-term treasuries.

[peterb]

If the Dow hold above 8600 today, it should be a rally confirmation. Next big overhead is 10000. If it get anywhere in the high 9000’s, I’m loading up on the new triple short ETF’s out there. If you want to go long on something for a year or two, try the gold producing mining companies. Like GFI, HMY, ABX, etc…they usually do very well after a credit bubble burst. See how gold has maintained very good relative strength in the last 6 months. This will cause the producing gold miners to have very good earnings in an absolutely crappy market. Hence, they will shoot up.

[peterb]

If the Dow hold above 8600 today, it should be a rally confirmation. Next big overhead is 10000. If it get anywhere in the high 9000’s, I’m loading up on the new triple short ETF’s out there. If you want to go long on something for a year or two, try the gold producing mining companies. Like GFI, HMY, ABX, etc…they usually do very well after a credit bubble burst. See how gold has maintained very good relative strength in the last 6 months. This will cause the producing gold miners to have very good earnings in an absolutely crappy market. Hence, they will shoot up.

[peterb]

If the Dow hold above 8600 today, it should be a rally confirmation. Next big overhead is 10000. If it get anywhere in the high 9000’s, I’m loading up on the new triple short ETF’s out there. If you want to go long on something for a year or two, try the gold producing mining companies. Like GFI, HMY, ABX, etc…they usually do very well after a credit bubble burst. See how gold has maintained very good relative strength in the last 6 months. This will cause the producing gold miners to have very good earnings in an absolutely crappy market. Hence, they will shoot up.

[peterb]

If the Dow hold above 8600 today, it should be a rally confirmation. Next big overhead is 10000. If it get anywhere in the high 9000’s, I’m loading up on the new triple short ETF’s out there. If you want to go long on something for a year or two, try the gold producing mining companies. Like GFI, HMY, ABX, etc…they usually do very well after a credit bubble burst. See how gold has maintained very good relative strength in the last 6 months. This will cause the producing gold miners to have very good earnings in an absolutely crappy market. Hence, they will shoot up.

[peterb]

If the Dow hold above 8600 today, it should be a rally confirmation. Next big overhead is 10000. If it get anywhere in the high 9000’s, I’m loading up on the new triple short ETF’s out there. If you want to go long on something for a year or two, try the gold producing mining companies. Like GFI, HMY, ABX, etc…they usually do very well after a credit bubble burst. See how gold has maintained very good relative strength in the last 6 months. This will cause the producing gold miners to have very good earnings in an absolutely crappy market. Hence, they will shoot up.

[cooperthedog]

I have been selling front month OTM put options on SPY (S&P 500 index ETF) since late October, due to the record volatility and corresponding fat premiums, which IMHO appeared to be the safest way to play such an oversold, yet unprecedented bear market. You may want to consider this as a lower risk alternative to a pure directional trade or sitting in cash.

This assumes you are willing to own the SP (or whatever index you choose) at the strike listed and that the strike provides enough premium to make it worthwhile. The last 5 days have reduced the VIX quite a bit, as well as driving puts deeper OTM, so one will have to accept less premium or incur more risk (higher strike).

As an example, the Dec31 SPY 80 put was ~2.55 at Friday’s close. This provides ~3.2% (38% annualized) premium for one month of risk and provides protection/break even at ~SP770 (you can opt for more “protection” and lower premiums or vice versa). The risks are that the market falls significantly below this level by year end. Also, closing the position before expiration could cause a loss even if the price of SPY is above the strike. You should familiarize yourself with the basics of options before considering such a strategy, and I would strongly recommend cash secured puts (i.e. no leverage). I would also avoid options on the 2x index ETF’s, as the dynamics of matching the daily movements at 2x can cause poor correlation over weeks or months and the b/a spreads can be wide.

[cooperthedog]

I have been selling front month OTM put options on SPY (S&P 500 index ETF) since late October, due to the record volatility and corresponding fat premiums, which IMHO appeared to be the safest way to play such an oversold, yet unprecedented bear market. You may want to consider this as a lower risk alternative to a pure directional trade or sitting in cash.

This assumes you are willing to own the SP (or whatever index you choose) at the strike listed and that the strike provides enough premium to make it worthwhile. The last 5 days have reduced the VIX quite a bit, as well as driving puts deeper OTM, so one will have to accept less premium or incur more risk (higher strike).

As an example, the Dec31 SPY 80 put was ~2.55 at Friday’s close. This provides ~3.2% (38% annualized) premium for one month of risk and provides protection/break even at ~SP770 (you can opt for more “protection” and lower premiums or vice versa). The risks are that the market falls significantly below this level by year end. Also, closing the position before expiration could cause a loss even if the price of SPY is above the strike. You should familiarize yourself with the basics of options before considering such a strategy, and I would strongly recommend cash secured puts (i.e. no leverage). I would also avoid options on the 2x index ETF’s, as the dynamics of matching the daily movements at 2x can cause poor correlation over weeks or months and the b/a spreads can be wide.

[cooperthedog]

I have been selling front month OTM put options on SPY (S&P 500 index ETF) since late October, due to the record volatility and corresponding fat premiums, which IMHO appeared to be the safest way to play such an oversold, yet unprecedented bear market. You may want to consider this as a lower risk alternative to a pure directional trade or sitting in cash.

This assumes you are willing to own the SP (or whatever index you choose) at the strike listed and that the strike provides enough premium to make it worthwhile. The last 5 days have reduced the VIX quite a bit, as well as driving puts deeper OTM, so one will have to accept less premium or incur more risk (higher strike).

As an example, the Dec31 SPY 80 put was ~2.55 at Friday’s close. This provides ~3.2% (38% annualized) premium for one month of risk and provides protection/break even at ~SP770 (you can opt for more “protection” and lower premiums or vice versa). The risks are that the market falls significantly below this level by year end. Also, closing the position before expiration could cause a loss even if the price of SPY is above the strike. You should familiarize yourself with the basics of options before considering such a strategy, and I would strongly recommend cash secured puts (i.e. no leverage). I would also avoid options on the 2x index ETF’s, as the dynamics of matching the daily movements at 2x can cause poor correlation over weeks or months and the b/a spreads can be wide.

[cooperthedog]

I have been selling front month OTM put options on SPY (S&P 500 index ETF) since late October, due to the record volatility and corresponding fat premiums, which IMHO appeared to be the safest way to play such an oversold, yet unprecedented bear market. You may want to consider this as a lower risk alternative to a pure directional trade or sitting in cash.

This assumes you are willing to own the SP (or whatever index you choose) at the strike listed and that the strike provides enough premium to make it worthwhile. The last 5 days have reduced the VIX quite a bit, as well as driving puts deeper OTM, so one will have to accept less premium or incur more risk (higher strike).

As an example, the Dec31 SPY 80 put was ~2.55 at Friday’s close. This provides ~3.2% (38% annualized) premium for one month of risk and provides protection/break even at ~SP770 (you can opt for more “protection” and lower premiums or vice versa). The risks are that the market falls significantly below this level by year end. Also, closing the position before expiration could cause a loss even if the price of SPY is above the strike. You should familiarize yourself with the basics of options before considering such a strategy, and I would strongly recommend cash secured puts (i.e. no leverage). I would also avoid options on the 2x index ETF’s, as the dynamics of matching the daily movements at 2x can cause poor correlation over weeks or months and the b/a spreads can be wide.

[Author]

Posts