I think we’re past the point of treating Permabulls with Kid Gloves

[VCJIM]

Disney is the root of all evil. I am convinced of that, and for once I’m not being sarcastic.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Where are the permabulls ?

OK, davidpeace aside, where are the permabulls ?
Seems to me that even the David Lereahs of the world are hoping for only moderate declines (5%) in values, hoping that it doesn’t become a rout. Is he still a “perma-bull” ?
How about different categories of bears:

PapaBear : The market was way too hot. anticipates 35-50% nominal price decline

Mama Bear : The market is already too cold, anticipates some leveling and only a 5-10% decline, followed by slight warming.

Baby Bears : The market will be just right (in 2-5 years), 10-20% correction.

[powayseller]

A guy like Lee Sterling will never admit real estate is a bad deal. The lower prices get, the more he’ll be convinced bargains abound. By the time we hit the bottom, he will finally be right. He is like those gold bulls, who were wrong for years, and are now vindicated.

Just curious, how can a realtor’s wife insist on holding 3 rental properties? Does she like owning property more than making money? She feels more financial security holding real estate than holding cash?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

PS –

Hey, to be fair sometimes Bears are too early too. I would have thought we hit a top in 2003, based on Rich’s plots of historic ratios.

In the stock market arena … remember Alan Greenspan’s infamous “irrational exuberance” speech, and all the bears who pounced on it. They were eventually right, but …the speech was December 5, 1996, and the S&P 500 never retreated to that level. Today it’s about 70% above that level (not including dividends). That’s about 6+% growth, plus 1-2% dividends.

Bulls make money, bears make money, … and Piggingtons get it right.

[powayseller]

When to get out of the way depends on how fast prices move. In stocks, I got out of the way in March, thinking a recession later this year would lower stocks. I don’t care that I was early.

In housing, I didn’t understand the bubble aspect until recently. In hindsight, anyone that got out at as soon as price softening was evident, like summer of 06, is going to be okay. Housing prices move so slowly, it’s almost impossible to lose money if you are really watching the market. The bears just didn’t know what to look for. They saw prices were unrealistic, but failed to understand that they should buy anyway, because there is plenty of time to get out of the way. People with proper knowledge would have bought until spring 04, when the low end softenend, and sold between summer 04 and summer 05.

[Author]

Posts