How much further will the SD market go down.

[andymajumder]

“If you look at past cycles, once prices reverted to the mean they continued downward and over-corrected. There’s no reason not to expect that this time.”

Ideally, thats what you expect. But, its moves like this

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/etf-update/10410831.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

which has me worried. Congress and Fed seems to be hell bent on throwing as much money on Housing as possible to prevent itself from correcting. Its almost an all out war against renters and tempt them buy at any cost. I won’t be surprised if a new bill comes out which will add an additional tax if you are renting.:-)

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR an CArenter. But for the life of me I can’t understand why the question matters from a prospective buyers standpoint. How much more will the property that I want to buy or in my case sometimes build, go down from here?Or up? How is that property positioned for the long haul from there. Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy? Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed? I think we might be looking at people who made money flipping houses after the bottom and well into 2003,2004 but that was all a fluke. It isn’t likely going to be that easy next time. You have to force it to work to make money or great deals.The best deals especially for lower priced houses are going to be between now and the bottom and around the bottom there will be great deals on expensive homes before the bottom too. Between now and the bottom is where the most fear, distress and capitualtion is.That is why you get a good deal. I am not saying buy yet,not everywhere especially. I am just saying this is a way to look at it. I think some people here are on automatic pilot waiting for air control to say “it’s the bottom now you can take over the controls”.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR an CArenter. But for the life of me I can’t understand why the question matters from a prospective buyers standpoint. How much more will the property that I want to buy or in my case sometimes build, go down from here?Or up? How is that property positioned for the long haul from there. Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy? Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed? I think we might be looking at people who made money flipping houses after the bottom and well into 2003,2004 but that was all a fluke. It isn’t likely going to be that easy next time. You have to force it to work to make money or great deals.The best deals especially for lower priced houses are going to be between now and the bottom and around the bottom there will be great deals on expensive homes before the bottom too. Between now and the bottom is where the most fear, distress and capitualtion is.That is why you get a good deal. I am not saying buy yet,not everywhere especially. I am just saying this is a way to look at it. I think some people here are on automatic pilot waiting for air control to say “it’s the bottom now you can take over the controls”.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR an CArenter. But for the life of me I can’t understand why the question matters from a prospective buyers standpoint. How much more will the property that I want to buy or in my case sometimes build, go down from here?Or up? How is that property positioned for the long haul from there. Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy? Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed? I think we might be looking at people who made money flipping houses after the bottom and well into 2003,2004 but that was all a fluke. It isn’t likely going to be that easy next time. You have to force it to work to make money or great deals.The best deals especially for lower priced houses are going to be between now and the bottom and around the bottom there will be great deals on expensive homes before the bottom too. Between now and the bottom is where the most fear, distress and capitualtion is.That is why you get a good deal. I am not saying buy yet,not everywhere especially. I am just saying this is a way to look at it. I think some people here are on automatic pilot waiting for air control to say “it’s the bottom now you can take over the controls”.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR an CArenter. But for the life of me I can’t understand why the question matters from a prospective buyers standpoint. How much more will the property that I want to buy or in my case sometimes build, go down from here?Or up? How is that property positioned for the long haul from there. Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy? Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed? I think we might be looking at people who made money flipping houses after the bottom and well into 2003,2004 but that was all a fluke. It isn’t likely going to be that easy next time. You have to force it to work to make money or great deals.The best deals especially for lower priced houses are going to be between now and the bottom and around the bottom there will be great deals on expensive homes before the bottom too. Between now and the bottom is where the most fear, distress and capitualtion is.That is why you get a good deal. I am not saying buy yet,not everywhere especially. I am just saying this is a way to look at it. I think some people here are on automatic pilot waiting for air control to say “it’s the bottom now you can take over the controls”.

[NotCranky]

I agree with SDR an CArenter. But for the life of me I can’t understand why the question matters from a prospective buyers standpoint. How much more will the property that I want to buy or in my case sometimes build, go down from here?Or up? How is that property positioned for the long haul from there. Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy? Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed? I think we might be looking at people who made money flipping houses after the bottom and well into 2003,2004 but that was all a fluke. It isn’t likely going to be that easy next time. You have to force it to work to make money or great deals.The best deals especially for lower priced houses are going to be between now and the bottom and around the bottom there will be great deals on expensive homes before the bottom too. Between now and the bottom is where the most fear, distress and capitualtion is.That is why you get a good deal. I am not saying buy yet,not everywhere especially. I am just saying this is a way to look at it. I think some people here are on automatic pilot waiting for air control to say “it’s the bottom now you can take over the controls”.

[JWM in SD]

“Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy?”

No, because it will be telegraphed long before that point. Have you not paid attention to Bug’s posts??? And please don’t respond that the rebound will happen so fast that we can’t take advantage of it. I will laugh in your face if I hear that.

“Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed?” Yet….;0. No really, so what if it is? Again I’m kidding. Actually, it really that anyone who truly understands the Big Picture simply doesn’t want to to be burdended with a large debt on an overpriced, illiquid asset that requires significant amount of maintenance in a Deflationary environment for the next several years. Why would I want to put my family in financial jeopordy?

Rustico, it is still about affordability in the long run. The bottom line is that decent housing stock in SoCal is grossly overpriced relative to local income levels.

It’s the affordability stupid…..

[JWM in SD]

“Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy?”

No, because it will be telegraphed long before that point. Have you not paid attention to Bug’s posts??? And please don’t respond that the rebound will happen so fast that we can’t take advantage of it. I will laugh in your face if I hear that.

“Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed?” Yet….;0. No really, so what if it is? Again I’m kidding. Actually, it really that anyone who truly understands the Big Picture simply doesn’t want to to be burdended with a large debt on an overpriced, illiquid asset that requires significant amount of maintenance in a Deflationary environment for the next several years. Why would I want to put my family in financial jeopordy?

Rustico, it is still about affordability in the long run. The bottom line is that decent housing stock in SoCal is grossly overpriced relative to local income levels.

It’s the affordability stupid…..

[JWM in SD]

“Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy?”

No, because it will be telegraphed long before that point. Have you not paid attention to Bug’s posts??? And please don’t respond that the rebound will happen so fast that we can’t take advantage of it. I will laugh in your face if I hear that.

“Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed?” Yet….;0. No really, so what if it is? Again I’m kidding. Actually, it really that anyone who truly understands the Big Picture simply doesn’t want to to be burdended with a large debt on an overpriced, illiquid asset that requires significant amount of maintenance in a Deflationary environment for the next several years. Why would I want to put my family in financial jeopordy?

Rustico, it is still about affordability in the long run. The bottom line is that decent housing stock in SoCal is grossly overpriced relative to local income levels.

It’s the affordability stupid…..

[JWM in SD]

“Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy?”

No, because it will be telegraphed long before that point. Have you not paid attention to Bug’s posts??? And please don’t respond that the rebound will happen so fast that we can’t take advantage of it. I will laugh in your face if I hear that.

“Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed?” Yet….;0. No really, so what if it is? Again I’m kidding. Actually, it really that anyone who truly understands the Big Picture simply doesn’t want to to be burdended with a large debt on an overpriced, illiquid asset that requires significant amount of maintenance in a Deflationary environment for the next several years. Why would I want to put my family in financial jeopordy?

Rustico, it is still about affordability in the long run. The bottom line is that decent housing stock in SoCal is grossly overpriced relative to local income levels.

It’s the affordability stupid…..

[JWM in SD]

“Do people want to know when the bottom is printed in the bold headlines in the newspaper or have Rich post it up on a thread so they won’t be afraid to buy?”

No, because it will be telegraphed long before that point. Have you not paid attention to Bug’s posts??? And please don’t respond that the rebound will happen so fast that we can’t take advantage of it. I will laugh in your face if I hear that.

“Maybe the problem comes from most piggs wanting to buy in fancy areas which haven’t outright crashed?” Yet….;0. No really, so what if it is? Again I’m kidding. Actually, it really that anyone who truly understands the Big Picture simply doesn’t want to to be burdended with a large debt on an overpriced, illiquid asset that requires significant amount of maintenance in a Deflationary environment for the next several years. Why would I want to put my family in financial jeopordy?

Rustico, it is still about affordability in the long run. The bottom line is that decent housing stock in SoCal is grossly overpriced relative to local income levels.

It’s the affordability stupid…..

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

[NotCranky]

I am talking about the capable and willing not the priced out, pie in the sky, and/or supersmart unwilling. This isn’t the first real estate cycle I have ever lived through. I am not fixated on the bottom nor do I think it is necessary from a sound investment point of view. That is all I am trying to get across. Market timing aside, that 20k of inventory isn’t all unaffordable and some of it is going to sell at nominal prices lower than it will ever be again,this trend starts growing from now on out. I am not saying most buyers will not go upside down. It is a matter of number and degree though.Some will make out like bandits. The full market isn’t completely messed up any more unless we have a depression.

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