How fast will the bounce back be?

[Fearful]

Bah, another where’s-the-bottom post. Who cares anymore. Bottom ain’t coming for a long long time; you’ll have plenty of warning when things start to pick up again.

I started out thinking this was just a real estate thing, and as time has gone on, realized there are big, deep systemic issues in the U.S. economy. This is way beyond real estate. There is a rather nasty credit crisis going on, banks are writing off billions in mortgage derivatives; this thing is the size of the S&L crisis, if not a good deal bigger. The last run up had none of the systemic changes (e.g. mortgage securitization) fueling it. SIV’s are dead, haven’t you heard?

You have friends hungry for a home? That hunger has a way of dissipating when price appreciation does not appear. Appetite for second homes tends to evaporate when potential buyers reckon on price depreciation.

It will take years for people to forget about wild price appreciation. Declines beget declines just as rises begat rises. Long after will come the bottom.

[VanMorrisonFan]

In Japan at the height of their real estate bubble they were actually doing 100-year mortgages. I don’t think there was a life insurance component…the assumption was your kids would just take over payment on the mortgage.

[VanMorrisonFan]

In Japan at the height of their real estate bubble they were actually doing 100-year mortgages. I don’t think there was a life insurance component…the assumption was your kids would just take over payment on the mortgage.

[VanMorrisonFan]

In Japan at the height of their real estate bubble they were actually doing 100-year mortgages. I don’t think there was a life insurance component…the assumption was your kids would just take over payment on the mortgage.

[VanMorrisonFan]

In Japan at the height of their real estate bubble they were actually doing 100-year mortgages. I don’t think there was a life insurance component…the assumption was your kids would just take over payment on the mortgage.

[VanMorrisonFan]

In Japan at the height of their real estate bubble they were actually doing 100-year mortgages. I don’t think there was a life insurance component…the assumption was your kids would just take over payment on the mortgage.

[92024]

“However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.”
___
I just don’t think everyone is a savvy as the people on this site. Once they feel that the market is on the way up again, they will jump back in with both feet.This is not like the stock market rush of the late 90’s. I never really heard people excited after that decline to jump back into stocks once the market turned. Real estate on the other hand seems to be different. Most people I talk to are ready to move, and they won’t want to miss it again, even if it does not mean huge equity returns, but only an affordable place that they can call home. I also don’t think we are that far from affordability.

[92024]

“However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.”
___
I just don’t think everyone is a savvy as the people on this site. Once they feel that the market is on the way up again, they will jump back in with both feet.This is not like the stock market rush of the late 90’s. I never really heard people excited after that decline to jump back into stocks once the market turned. Real estate on the other hand seems to be different. Most people I talk to are ready to move, and they won’t want to miss it again, even if it does not mean huge equity returns, but only an affordable place that they can call home. I also don’t think we are that far from affordability.

[92024]

“However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.”
___
I just don’t think everyone is a savvy as the people on this site. Once they feel that the market is on the way up again, they will jump back in with both feet.This is not like the stock market rush of the late 90’s. I never really heard people excited after that decline to jump back into stocks once the market turned. Real estate on the other hand seems to be different. Most people I talk to are ready to move, and they won’t want to miss it again, even if it does not mean huge equity returns, but only an affordable place that they can call home. I also don’t think we are that far from affordability.

[92024]

“However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.”
___
I just don’t think everyone is a savvy as the people on this site. Once they feel that the market is on the way up again, they will jump back in with both feet.This is not like the stock market rush of the late 90’s. I never really heard people excited after that decline to jump back into stocks once the market turned. Real estate on the other hand seems to be different. Most people I talk to are ready to move, and they won’t want to miss it again, even if it does not mean huge equity returns, but only an affordable place that they can call home. I also don’t think we are that far from affordability.

[92024]

“However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.”
___
I just don’t think everyone is a savvy as the people on this site. Once they feel that the market is on the way up again, they will jump back in with both feet.This is not like the stock market rush of the late 90’s. I never really heard people excited after that decline to jump back into stocks once the market turned. Real estate on the other hand seems to be different. Most people I talk to are ready to move, and they won’t want to miss it again, even if it does not mean huge equity returns, but only an affordable place that they can call home. I also don’t think we are that far from affordability.

[92024]

How fast can it be when most
Submitted by anxvariety on December 12, 2007 – 9:26am.

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

My thought is that there is going to be a one time “Forgiven” policy announced for people who had credit issues between 2005 and 2007. Thus, they will have one or two marks eliminated from their credit scores. Look, the govt. is going to do everything possible to make sure we start buying homes again, so any logic of what happened in the past is no longer relevant.

[92024]

How fast can it be when most
Submitted by anxvariety on December 12, 2007 – 9:26am.

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

My thought is that there is going to be a one time “Forgiven” policy announced for people who had credit issues between 2005 and 2007. Thus, they will have one or two marks eliminated from their credit scores. Look, the govt. is going to do everything possible to make sure we start buying homes again, so any logic of what happened in the past is no longer relevant.

[92024]

How fast can it be when most
Submitted by anxvariety on December 12, 2007 – 9:26am.

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

My thought is that there is going to be a one time “Forgiven” policy announced for people who had credit issues between 2005 and 2007. Thus, they will have one or two marks eliminated from their credit scores. Look, the govt. is going to do everything possible to make sure we start buying homes again, so any logic of what happened in the past is no longer relevant.

[92024]

How fast can it be when most
Submitted by anxvariety on December 12, 2007 – 9:26am.

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

My thought is that there is going to be a one time “Forgiven” policy announced for people who had credit issues between 2005 and 2007. Thus, they will have one or two marks eliminated from their credit scores. Look, the govt. is going to do everything possible to make sure we start buying homes again, so any logic of what happened in the past is no longer relevant.

[Author]

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