How fast will the bounce back be?

[hipmatt]

A. It won’t be fast.. and (BTW there never has been a quick bounce back)
B. It won’t be for a while.

[Ex-SD]

When the absolute bottom is found (I think 2012), it will most likely remain stagnant for at least five years.

[Ex-SD]

When the absolute bottom is found (I think 2012), it will most likely remain stagnant for at least five years.

[Ex-SD]

When the absolute bottom is found (I think 2012), it will most likely remain stagnant for at least five years.

[Ex-SD]

When the absolute bottom is found (I think 2012), it will most likely remain stagnant for at least five years.

[Ex-SD]

When the absolute bottom is found (I think 2012), it will most likely remain stagnant for at least five years.

[LA_Renter]

The demand building on the sidelines is nothing compared to the demand that we experienced at the height of the exotic loans and the most lax point in underwriting. Currently home prices are falling, we are getting into some nasty resets in Prime Option Arms, so the default / foreclosure story is still intact. The return to easy loans is way way way down the line and I doubt we see that type of phenomena again at least in Mortgage Backed Securities. Are there qualified and…..Confident…..buyers that will jump in this Spring, yes. There is just not that many of them. Also a recent poll just came out that most Americans now believe we are in a recession. People don’t buy into shaky RE markets when they have the thought of recession in the back of their head (we did not have that in the Spring of 07). In order to move the glut of inventory that now permeates most of the California market there will have to be a bid that is perceived to be under market value. That is how you return to equilibrium.

[LA_Renter]

The demand building on the sidelines is nothing compared to the demand that we experienced at the height of the exotic loans and the most lax point in underwriting. Currently home prices are falling, we are getting into some nasty resets in Prime Option Arms, so the default / foreclosure story is still intact. The return to easy loans is way way way down the line and I doubt we see that type of phenomena again at least in Mortgage Backed Securities. Are there qualified and…..Confident…..buyers that will jump in this Spring, yes. There is just not that many of them. Also a recent poll just came out that most Americans now believe we are in a recession. People don’t buy into shaky RE markets when they have the thought of recession in the back of their head (we did not have that in the Spring of 07). In order to move the glut of inventory that now permeates most of the California market there will have to be a bid that is perceived to be under market value. That is how you return to equilibrium.

[LA_Renter]

The demand building on the sidelines is nothing compared to the demand that we experienced at the height of the exotic loans and the most lax point in underwriting. Currently home prices are falling, we are getting into some nasty resets in Prime Option Arms, so the default / foreclosure story is still intact. The return to easy loans is way way way down the line and I doubt we see that type of phenomena again at least in Mortgage Backed Securities. Are there qualified and…..Confident…..buyers that will jump in this Spring, yes. There is just not that many of them. Also a recent poll just came out that most Americans now believe we are in a recession. People don’t buy into shaky RE markets when they have the thought of recession in the back of their head (we did not have that in the Spring of 07). In order to move the glut of inventory that now permeates most of the California market there will have to be a bid that is perceived to be under market value. That is how you return to equilibrium.

[LA_Renter]

The demand building on the sidelines is nothing compared to the demand that we experienced at the height of the exotic loans and the most lax point in underwriting. Currently home prices are falling, we are getting into some nasty resets in Prime Option Arms, so the default / foreclosure story is still intact. The return to easy loans is way way way down the line and I doubt we see that type of phenomena again at least in Mortgage Backed Securities. Are there qualified and…..Confident…..buyers that will jump in this Spring, yes. There is just not that many of them. Also a recent poll just came out that most Americans now believe we are in a recession. People don’t buy into shaky RE markets when they have the thought of recession in the back of their head (we did not have that in the Spring of 07). In order to move the glut of inventory that now permeates most of the California market there will have to be a bid that is perceived to be under market value. That is how you return to equilibrium.

[LA_Renter]

The demand building on the sidelines is nothing compared to the demand that we experienced at the height of the exotic loans and the most lax point in underwriting. Currently home prices are falling, we are getting into some nasty resets in Prime Option Arms, so the default / foreclosure story is still intact. The return to easy loans is way way way down the line and I doubt we see that type of phenomena again at least in Mortgage Backed Securities. Are there qualified and…..Confident…..buyers that will jump in this Spring, yes. There is just not that many of them. Also a recent poll just came out that most Americans now believe we are in a recession. People don’t buy into shaky RE markets when they have the thought of recession in the back of their head (we did not have that in the Spring of 07). In order to move the glut of inventory that now permeates most of the California market there will have to be a bid that is perceived to be under market value. That is how you return to equilibrium.

[EconProf]

BobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.

[EconProf]

BobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.

[EconProf]

BobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.

[EconProf]

BobS
There will not be a “bounce back”. History shows that housing and building cycles are a lot longer than economic cycles. The latter have averaged 3 – 6 years peak-to-peak (or trough-to-trough) since WWII. Housing cycles more like 10 – 12 years. Public sentiment propels the housing cycle, and it takes longer to turn around, and is not always correlated with the state of the economy.
Consider: CA housing prices had their big run-ups toward the end of the 1970’s, then the 1980’s, and then the 1990’s, with the last one lasting longer and being more powerful than normal.
If you believe that the strength of this downswing is rooted in and dependent upon the excesses of the previous upswing, then this decline will be all the more powerful. Accordingly, crowd behavior should lean heavily against real estate investing once we bottom out a long time from now.

[Author]

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