How fast will the bounce back be?

[4plexowner]

what we have to watch for is any mention of “land banks” which is one of the many logically flawed Keynesian economic policies – the idea is to establish a bank that will provide cut-rate loans on real estate regardless of LTV and also buy real estate and hold it in their portfolio – in essence, the land bank becomes the lender and buyer of last resort in an attempt to circumvent the price discovery process in an open and free market

this idea is already being floated as part of the bailouts – the idea is that local governments (ie, city, county, state) would establish and grant municipal bonds to subsidize the FB’s in their region – the only problem is that very few local govts have the finances to do this and many of them have credit rating problems that would make the issuance of bonds problematic

interesting times …

~

has anyone noticed that all the money being raised by the failing financial institutions is being done in the form of preferred stock?

homework assignment: in a bankruptcy, what is the priority order for paying off liabilities and where does the common shareholder fall?

[Bugs]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the “bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

I’ve had conversations this week with a couple brokers and “third party” loan originators. Thankfully none of them are clients of mine. These guys know there is no profitable play for their clients right now but they don’t care. It’s all about the commissions and the churn. They are chomping at the bit looking for a dream to sell, and according to them they have a lot of buyers who want to dream that dream again.

I don’t think we should ignore the sentiments of these bulls. The only thing that would slow them down is the availability of financing. If the financing is at all reasonable, I think there might be another price spike. The only question in my mind is whether it will lead to the gross distortions we had this time, and that will depend on the greed of the lenders and the laziness of the government.

I doubt you could lose money betting against either.

[Bugs]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the “bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

I’ve had conversations this week with a couple brokers and “third party” loan originators. Thankfully none of them are clients of mine. These guys know there is no profitable play for their clients right now but they don’t care. It’s all about the commissions and the churn. They are chomping at the bit looking for a dream to sell, and according to them they have a lot of buyers who want to dream that dream again.

I don’t think we should ignore the sentiments of these bulls. The only thing that would slow them down is the availability of financing. If the financing is at all reasonable, I think there might be another price spike. The only question in my mind is whether it will lead to the gross distortions we had this time, and that will depend on the greed of the lenders and the laziness of the government.

I doubt you could lose money betting against either.

[Bugs]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the “bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

I’ve had conversations this week with a couple brokers and “third party” loan originators. Thankfully none of them are clients of mine. These guys know there is no profitable play for their clients right now but they don’t care. It’s all about the commissions and the churn. They are chomping at the bit looking for a dream to sell, and according to them they have a lot of buyers who want to dream that dream again.

I don’t think we should ignore the sentiments of these bulls. The only thing that would slow them down is the availability of financing. If the financing is at all reasonable, I think there might be another price spike. The only question in my mind is whether it will lead to the gross distortions we had this time, and that will depend on the greed of the lenders and the laziness of the government.

I doubt you could lose money betting against either.

[Bugs]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the “bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

I’ve had conversations this week with a couple brokers and “third party” loan originators. Thankfully none of them are clients of mine. These guys know there is no profitable play for their clients right now but they don’t care. It’s all about the commissions and the churn. They are chomping at the bit looking for a dream to sell, and according to them they have a lot of buyers who want to dream that dream again.

I don’t think we should ignore the sentiments of these bulls. The only thing that would slow them down is the availability of financing. If the financing is at all reasonable, I think there might be another price spike. The only question in my mind is whether it will lead to the gross distortions we had this time, and that will depend on the greed of the lenders and the laziness of the government.

I doubt you could lose money betting against either.

[Bugs]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the “bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

I’ve had conversations this week with a couple brokers and “third party” loan originators. Thankfully none of them are clients of mine. These guys know there is no profitable play for their clients right now but they don’t care. It’s all about the commissions and the churn. They are chomping at the bit looking for a dream to sell, and according to them they have a lot of buyers who want to dream that dream again.

I don’t think we should ignore the sentiments of these bulls. The only thing that would slow them down is the availability of financing. If the financing is at all reasonable, I think there might be another price spike. The only question in my mind is whether it will lead to the gross distortions we had this time, and that will depend on the greed of the lenders and the laziness of the government.

I doubt you could lose money betting against either.

[anxvariety]

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

[anxvariety]

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

[anxvariety]

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

[anxvariety]

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

[anxvariety]

How fast can it be when most will be broke or have bad credit or both.. screwed up credit will take 7 years right? So my guess is 7 years.

[patientlywaiting]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the "bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

Bugs, i know exactly what you mean.  My take on this is how long it takes for us to reach the bottom. 

Those flippers you're talking about may not have any wherewithal left when all is said and done.  I know a couple professional flippers.  They have to keep their crew paid, fed and nourished. 

[patientlywaiting]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the "bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

Bugs, i know exactly what you mean.  My take on this is how long it takes for us to reach the bottom. 

Those flippers you're talking about may not have any wherewithal left when all is said and done.  I know a couple professional flippers.  They have to keep their crew paid, fed and nourished. 

[patientlywaiting]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the "bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

Bugs, i know exactly what you mean.  My take on this is how long it takes for us to reach the bottom. 

Those flippers you're talking about may not have any wherewithal left when all is said and done.  I know a couple professional flippers.  They have to keep their crew paid, fed and nourished. 

[patientlywaiting]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the "bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

Bugs, i know exactly what you mean.  My take on this is how long it takes for us to reach the bottom. 

Those flippers you're talking about may not have any wherewithal left when all is said and done.  I know a couple professional flippers.  They have to keep their crew paid, fed and nourished. 

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