Housing Prices Will Fall at Least 50%

[sdduuuude]

I did mix my words.

I didn’t mean the falling against the yen. I meant the value of a dollar is decreasing because they are printing more of it. This is inflation.

I did, however, mean that if the dollar falls against the yen, it will help bring jobs back into the US.

If the dollar falls with respect to the yen, and the value of your house is constant, is your house worth more dollars or fewer yen? Huh. I don’t know that one, but it is one of the two or a littel of both. This is why these fiat currencies are a challenge.

Again – I meant, the dollar itself is becoming less and less valuable, which is inflation.

All I’m saying is – if inflation is raging, your 50% nominal reduction gets wilder and wilder, more and more unlikely.

[sdduuuude]

Does he continue to assume the price will drop in 0 time and ignore the 5 to 7 years of additional appreciation?

[sdduuuude]

“in some areas”

I always assume the discussion is about median price for the county, which has yet to go negative.

I think downtown could see -50%, though!

[sdrealtor]

Docteur,
I beleive there may be cultural differences that would make these difference in opinion impossible to resolve. Different cultures value different things, which makes how you or I feel about our homes vs how powayseller views hers neither wrong nor right…just different.

[Anonymous]

I agree 100%. Home “ownership” is one of the most overrated themes in our culture. Particularly in California, you can never separate the fact that it is an investment. Maybe in the midwest the idea of buying a home strictly as a place to live is still somewhat reasonable because prices don’t fluctuate very much. But here in California forget it, prices fluctuate far too much to not view it as an investment.

Hardly anyone in San Diego really owns their house anyway, the bank does. It continues to amaze me how many Californians still have the “old school” mentality about real estate. As if they all grew up in the Midwest and still mainain those ideals. Wake up people! Nobody stays in the same house for 30 years anymore, so the majority of “homeowners” will never truly own their own house, they’ll always be simply “mortgage owners”

All the “mortgage owners” who have built up equity from real esate appreciation and think they are rich haven’t really made one dime of profit and won’t until they sell.

[docteur]

Powayseller what I said was this:

“I think we have to look at exactly where we want to live, how we want to live and then determine if the price someone is asking is worth what we are willing to pay.”

I am not saying everyone should own a home. It’s a choice we all make based on personal preferences and financial considerations. For you, at this point in time, the savings are more important than the ownership, for me it’s just the opposite.

I admit I am completely emotionally attached to my home and everything in it. I love where I live and I have never treated my home as an “asset.” I never list it on a net worth statement because it is not something I would ever risk losing. It is where I live and it is “my dream.”

I grew up in rented homes and there was always the fear that we could have the rent raised or be booted out at will. So that motivated me to be in control of my destiny. For some, that fear is minimal and renting is fine.

Lastly, I would mind losing $ 1 Million in equity but the probability of that happening in my experience is very, very small. And equity is not lost or gained until you sell and convert it to cash.

I would also mind losing my “home” back to a landlord who decided he wanted to move back in or raise the rent to a level I couldn’t afford, forcing me to move.

I guess I have to ask the question, if finances were not an issue, would you buy or continue to rent?

[docteur]

PD – If you did not buy, then I guess it wasn’t your dream home after all. If you really want to get clear on what your intentions are, look at the results you produce. Pretty simple.

If you are perfectly clear on what you want, when it shows up, I promise you, you will buy it. Obviously that home didn’t match your picture of your dream home (“there were a few negatives”).

I think “taking the emotion out of it” and not making an offer because you “think the price is going to drop” are simply justifications for not purchasing and they are not good or bad, they are just part of the process of finding exactly what we want.

I believe you didn’t buy the house, regardless of your reasons, because it simply wasn’t the right one, it “was not perfect.”

When my dream home showed up, I bought it and price, or the state of the market, or whatever considerations I may have had prior to my purchase disappeared because I got exactly what I wanted. It matched my vision perfectly.

And I believe in time, you will also get exactly what you want and the state of the market, or the investment potential of the home, yada, yada, yada will not matter because that house (wherever it is) will be the one house you have to own.

[docteur]

sdrealtor – it is very possible that there are cultural differences. However, I am not trying to resolve differences in opinion, I am enjoying exploring those differences. How we feel about our homes is part of the process of communication and I agree with you, there is no right or wrong, only different perspectives.

[docteur]

Deadzone – Home ownership is a very important concept, especially to “old school” folks like me, who want to raise a family in a stable, unchanging environment.

And I must disagree with you, I have several friends who live in homes that their parents and even their grandparents have lived in. I plan on passing my home on to my 16 year-old son, who is excited at the prospect of raising his family in our home, which is full of wonderful memories of his childhood.

He understands that this house is just as much his as it is mine, because he is a participant in making this house a home. There is a continuim in life that is very important to us and passing this home onto our son will perpetuate that ideal.

Also, I might add, that in several of San Diego’s older neighborhoods like La Jolla, Point Loma and Mission Hills, several people own their own homes outright, not to mention areas like Rancho Santa Fe or the North County Coastal areas, where lots of folks have paid cash for their homes over the years.

*Powayseller, are there any statistics on the percentage of homes in San Diego owned free and clear? If anyone could find that one, it would be you.

And lastly, your final paragraph is absolutely accurate. There is no gain, nor any loss, until and when you sell. If you never sell, you never lose or profit. Again, it’s all in what your motivation is when owning a home. Mine is permanence, stability and an enduring sense of family.

[Anonymous]

I agree with your sentiment, no doubt we would all prefer to live the idealistic life where home ownership is not an investment to worry about. The #1 advantage in home ownership (any maybe only avantage today) is stability in my opinion, and that is worth something.

But unfortunatley times have changed, especially here. I guaranteed you that people who own their homes fee and clear are the excpetion in San Diego (would like to see the statistic too). And again, people living in the same house for 30 years? There may be a lot of old timers who have been in the same place for 30+ but their number are dwindling.

[PD]

I would much prefer to own. But I also want to make the right financial moves. I have zero debt, never buy a new car (always pay cash) and am very frugal. I also try to buy stocks low and sell high. It made sense to sell my house, despite the fact that I had invested a significant amount of myself in fixing it up and designing the landscaping.
History shows that the chances of a significant downturn are much, much better than that they will stay stable.
Docteur, you are very fortunate as well as very much in the minority in that you have found a home that will make you happy for the long term. Most Americans live the Bigger, Better, Newer mantra and will never actually find their dream home.
I made a mistake in the stock market in 2000. I’m not going to ingnore the warning signs again.

[powayseller]

In my culture, people live in their homes their entire lives, and pass them on to their children. This paradigm is poor financial planning today, unless you have money to burn. Only people who have their home paid off are in that boat now. Anyone with a mortgage, sorry, doesn’t qualify as capable of owning a house these days.

[powayseller]

At this point, with so much of a turn-off and fear of housing, I do not want to own. The thought of owning a house is repulsive to me, today. My landlord and I are signing a 2-year lease at current rent. I am comfortable and happy with my deal. If I had $800K cash, I would not use it to buy a house. I would wait 5 years and get a $1.6 mil house at the coast for $800K. I would still seek that sweet deal, and am willing to wait for it. Maybe because I love where I live, and I don’t care whether I own or rent.

I think it’s sweet that your kids want to own your homes, and I never wanted to say anything against it for sdrealtor, because I didn’t want to upset him. But really, how likely is it that your kids and their wife will decide to stay in SD? Your sons may get job offers of their dreams in Florida, or the new wife may get a surgery position of her dreams in Connecticut, or your son may get a promotion which takes him to San Francisco, and then he will leave the childhood house….I wouldn’t count on them staying in the family house. This is rare even in Germany these days, which is my heritage and my uncle and greataunts stayed in their parents’ homes and died there. However, the next generation is mobile, and goes where the job takes them. The job-for-life dream has disappeared, and everyone is mobile now. So I wouldn’t make my decision on where my kids might live, or make them feel guilty for not wanting to stay…Just a thought. Please don’t be upset by this suggestion. It’s just a possibility to consider.

[powayseller]

I don’t know what he assumes. Did you read his update? I’ve e-mailed him about his China articles before. You can e-mail him too, make proper modifications to his story, and post back. Just a thought.

[sdrealtor]

You could change the byline and put my name, my neighbors names or most of my friends names in there. There are more people like us out here…lots more. I suspect that many people here have come to SoCal to live the lifestyle a few years. But there are many of us committed to making this our home and improving the communities we live in. Without people like this, a place lacks community and permanency. I applaud you as I too am living my dream also. I have no desires for bigger/better homes and one of my children will be blessed by the legacy of raising their family in this home.

[Author]

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