Goodbye to San Diego

[Hobie]

So glad to hear from AN and Coronita again!!    Not necessarily people moving not being able to buy.  Just like EP did, people are simply cashing out and moving to cheaper area.  They have extra money to help their kids buy a home.  Plus the public education system is also driving people away.

[an]

You’re right, some did cash out and move/retire.  I didn’t mean to say all who moved can’t buy here. But as I said in my thesis, on average the people moving in makes more money than the people moving out.  Which is why the inflation adjusted median household income went up over the last decade.  Also, if things are as dire as EP paint it, then rent wouldn’t have gone up dramatically.

[sdrealtor]

He can correct me if Im wrong but Id surmise nearly all of his net worth and retirement income was from real estate, Many of the folks I see leaving fit that profile. They have not properly planned for a retirement income to allow them to live here comfortably. They cash out, buy a nice big house (nicer than what they had here), bank the rest and try to convince themselves they are better off and its CA fault for being so darn expensive.

Many if not most of the CA refugees I see that left complain they got priced out here. But they lived here when it was exceedingly inexpensive. Had they stayed put and not given in to the temptation of refis and living beyond their means they would have been fine. Most are self styled conservatives that blame liberal CA without taking personal responsibility for their own failings. How ironic! The secret to living in CA long term is live the life you can afford and stay put.

I consistently saved and invested for many years, paid down my primary and kept expenses low. I am enjoying a very modest cost structure as I head toward retirement. I’m living where I have always dreamed of being and at no risk of having to leave.

 

[barnaby33]

I consistently saved and invested for many years, paid down my primary and kept expenses low. I am enjoying a very modest cost structure as I head toward retirement. I’m living where I have always dreamed of being and at no risk of having to leave.

Such modesty. In a lesser man it would come off as a brag!

Josh

[sdrealtor]

Says a guy who did exactly the same thing

[EconProf]

CA faces a $68 BILLION budget deficit, so is now considering a wealth tax.  With an already sky-high state income tax, Gavin Newsom is now advocating a tax on your  worth.  So sdr, since you’ve bragged here about your wealth, prepare yourself to pay a tax on it.

Also under consideration is an “exit tax”.  So those who escape to another state will pay to do so.

Part-time CA residents would pay based on what fraction of the year they reside in CA.  Jeeze, if I vacation in CA will I have to pay?

But at least your taxes are going to a good cause….like complete medical care for illegals.  The world’s sick need only walk across the Texas border and head straight for CA to get their medical care,  including (I believe–not sure), sexual transition surgery.

Piggs of a certain age will remember the song Hotel California:

“You can check out any time, but you can’t leave.”

Cheers,

EconProf

[sdrealtor]

Ah yes professor nonsense who always shows up with random propaganda and never a lick of data. Keep reading your right wing nonsense about things that haven’t happened, and almost certainly won’t.

What will happen is you’re a little island of nowhere will come crashing down much sooner than you think

[Hatfield]

Dude can’t even quote the lyric correctly.

[sdrealtor]

Yup you called that one. Piggs of a certain age remember one of the most iconic song lines and its embarrassing he got not one part but both parts wrong. He didnt leave, he got kicked out of CA

[sdrealtor]

What the heck, how about an update. For December 2023 the number of home sales dropped over 20% in old Saint George despite having much more inventory. Redfin scored the market as 15 out of 100 for their heat index. Things are cooling down there very quickly. As a matter a fact its 39 degrees there right this moment!

As a point of comparison, in San Diego which is even more inventory constrained this year than last home sales are down only 11%. If we enjoyed the excessive inventory that Saint George offers we would have been well into the positive. San Diego scored 81 out of 100 in that same market heat index.

So despite the ongoing ramblings of Right Wing Prof, San Diego continues to excel while the cracks in Saint George have not only formed but the foundation is now crumbling! Before you know it the distress sales will be rolling in for investors with shark like appetites’ for SW Utah.

[EconProf]

sdr:  nice dodge.  You can’t face the fact that Californians (and San Diegans) are leaving for a long list of reasons, despite your great weather.   BTW, the great SD weather also makes San Diego a great draw to your homeless population.

And yes, it is documented those leaving are on average higher income people.  The very factors you mention, like land costs, combined with utility costs, expensive and poor schools, etc. are prompting the exodus.  Regarding the latter, a study just compared educational results by state in the return to post-covid school test scores.  Because CA locked down for so long, they fared worse in national test scores than Mississippi.  So the poor whites and poor blacks of the deep south outperformed CA students (UT scored 3rd in the nation).

And the trend seems to be accelerating as more people move based on the lower cost of living.  Want to escape the nearly highest state income taxes in the nation?  Move to income-tax free Nevada, Florida, or Texas, or low-taxed AZ or UT.  You’ll get twice the house for half as much money.  You are correct to point out they are building like crazy here and people are flooding in.  When we meet new people here, we always ask “Where are you from?”  Usually it is coastal California.

Have fun paying for full medical care for all illegals, and for huge reparations for Blacks (who will start moving to CA in droves if reparations become law).  As your favorite politician (I’m guessing) might say “C’mon man”.

Cheers,

EconProf

 

[sdrealtor]

Once again, you refer to these imaginary studies and research without ever providing a link to any of it. If it exists, please send it so I can actually read it and see if it has any validity. Things you mention about the pandemic are mostly short term and will quickly resolve themselves. A lot of that has already. I am in downtown San Diego quite often. In fact, I was there this morning. The homeless population that I see out there has dropped very noticeably. You post continuously the right wing rhetoric without ever providing any source data. I am there multiple times a week and I see the changes. The tide is quickly shifting.

What is not shifting is the economic development of Southwestern Utah. There are no new industries there. And you claim people are coming there yet. The data I provided shows sales are dropping there quickly. The market is no longer hot there and perhaps you were behind the curve chasing after your grand children. I hope you are enjoying being around them. You’re probably stuck there now and can’t afford to come back.

all the markets you like to talk about that people are going to are the first ones that are starting to crash. I will be following and updating as this progresses. We still live in the greatest place in this country. You were here and had your chance and gave up on it. In the years ahead, the benefit of hindsight will show what a mistake that was.

and I have no favorite politicians. I am not part of the grievance committee that looks to blame everyone else for what I don’t like or my problems. I believe in personal responsibility that ironically was the corner stone of your beloved politicians, who have abandoned it. It’s hysterical watching your party abandon the economy as an issue because it’s coming right along. Now it’s all about immigration because that’s all you think you have left. It’s all just so sad.

 

 

[harryO]

It seems like we continue to use housing prices and climate as the variables to assess quality of life in San Diego. It seems like there are many other variables to consider including:

Homelessness

Crime and Safety

Schools

Taxes paid per Household (or per capita)

Gas prices

Electricity rates

Infrastructure quality

I struggle to reconcile what I read on this thread with what I read on Nextdoor, for example, where 80% of residents seem quite frustrated with San Diego currently.

I own a rental property in Encinitas. Last year my long term tenants (since 2006) packed up and moved to South Carolina. Their reason for leaving was frustration with the local community, so Encinitas is not immune either.

Homelessness is a significant issue, without a doubt. If downtown has improved, it is most likely due to migration to South Bay, or other parts of the area outside of downtown. It is just squeezing the balloon.

I am neither democrat, nor republican, and find both parties ineffective.

It would be interesting to see where San Diego ranked in some of these other variables.

 

 

[sdrealtor]

Next door? Are you kidding? That place is a joke and a cesspool.

The people leaving encinitas are leaving because they can no longer afford it or it’s no longer the small blue-collar hippie beach town at once was. The biggest complaint they have around here is they are actually trying to build some density and more of the entry level category of homes. I’ve lived in this area 30 years and it’s grown in change dramatically. It is quickly becoming the Newport Beach San Diego county for better or worse.

Utility rates this year are well below what they were last year. Gas prices have come down also over the last several months. People are always complaining about schools and politicizing them. The reality is class sizes are down and the people complaining should be happy about that. They are down because we are at the point in the cycle were young families, move out and old families move in or age in place. We went through this before and it will pass until we go through it again. It’s all part of the cycle that I’ve seen here over the last three decades. Crime statistics show that crime is down, but people want to politicize it so they question the data. What is up is the reporting of crimes on places like next door along with coyote, sightings and people putting their dogs, poop bags in others trash cans.

politicians all do the same thing which is whatever they have to do to stay in power or get in power. Then they give their friends jobs. Both parties do it.

Life around here has definitely changed over the decades. I’ve been here. Some people lament it is for the worst and others think it’s for the better and others think it’s just different. So goes life.

[sdrealtor]

And just to be clear, this place is not perfect. We have our challenges and issues. Every place does. But all things considered we have it as good as anywhere and the premature demise of CA is the right wings favorite story to tell

[Author]

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