Going on the radio this afternoon… quick questions for the piggs

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks for the input SDT. Would that have changed over 10 years though? The purpose of this is to encapsulate all neighborhood- and house-specific factors so that we can compare apples to apples. Has demand for different areas significantly changed over 10 years?

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks j — yeah, Thornberg had it nailed from the start. I am already pretty sold on prices-to-incomes… that’s my main metric to determine housing valuation over time. Was just curious about the specific rule of thumb I applied above, to see if there were any gotchas I was missing…

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks j — yeah, Thornberg had it nailed from the start. I am already pretty sold on prices-to-incomes… that’s my main metric to determine housing valuation over time. Was just curious about the specific rule of thumb I applied above, to see if there were any gotchas I was missing…

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks j — yeah, Thornberg had it nailed from the start. I am already pretty sold on prices-to-incomes… that’s my main metric to determine housing valuation over time. Was just curious about the specific rule of thumb I applied above, to see if there were any gotchas I was missing…

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks j — yeah, Thornberg had it nailed from the start. I am already pretty sold on prices-to-incomes… that’s my main metric to determine housing valuation over time. Was just curious about the specific rule of thumb I applied above, to see if there were any gotchas I was missing…

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks j — yeah, Thornberg had it nailed from the start. I am already pretty sold on prices-to-incomes… that’s my main metric to determine housing valuation over time. Was just curious about the specific rule of thumb I applied above, to see if there were any gotchas I was missing…

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Transplant] . . . I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).[/quote]

This is a valid point for SOME buyers. But what is the actual percentage of buyers where school district is the be-all and end-all in their purchase decision? And just because active Piggs might be overwhelmingly of a certain demographic and general locale, what about the many adults that settle with their familes within five minutes of the home they grew up in, in which their parent(s) often still reside? Their kids attend the same schools they did – there is no “overthinking” about “scores” and such. This parent demographic is also very alive and well in SD County. Then you have to factor in all the buyers where school district or “API scores” are meaningless, and there are many.

Don’t know the percentages of these groups but would surmise they vary, depending on area of the county and age of community.

Not overthinking it too much, I would say that if the properties the buyer is interested in have 2002 asking prices (with little to no improvements made since 2002), then it is probably priced right. If a property has had substantial improvements made to it between 2002 and the present, then possibly a 2002 price, plus the labor/material value of the improvements would be a fair price, assuming the buyer wanted and would use all of the improvements made.

As you know, Rich, it is impossible to put a set appreciation rate on the entire county as each micro-market has its own rate of appreciation or depreciation, depending on the level of distressed current (and sometimes shadow) inventory that lie within it.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Transplant] . . . I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).[/quote]

This is a valid point for SOME buyers. But what is the actual percentage of buyers where school district is the be-all and end-all in their purchase decision? And just because active Piggs might be overwhelmingly of a certain demographic and general locale, what about the many adults that settle with their familes within five minutes of the home they grew up in, in which their parent(s) often still reside? Their kids attend the same schools they did – there is no “overthinking” about “scores” and such. This parent demographic is also very alive and well in SD County. Then you have to factor in all the buyers where school district or “API scores” are meaningless, and there are many.

Don’t know the percentages of these groups but would surmise they vary, depending on area of the county and age of community.

Not overthinking it too much, I would say that if the properties the buyer is interested in have 2002 asking prices (with little to no improvements made since 2002), then it is probably priced right. If a property has had substantial improvements made to it between 2002 and the present, then possibly a 2002 price, plus the labor/material value of the improvements would be a fair price, assuming the buyer wanted and would use all of the improvements made.

As you know, Rich, it is impossible to put a set appreciation rate on the entire county as each micro-market has its own rate of appreciation or depreciation, depending on the level of distressed current (and sometimes shadow) inventory that lie within it.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Transplant] . . . I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).[/quote]

This is a valid point for SOME buyers. But what is the actual percentage of buyers where school district is the be-all and end-all in their purchase decision? And just because active Piggs might be overwhelmingly of a certain demographic and general locale, what about the many adults that settle with their familes within five minutes of the home they grew up in, in which their parent(s) often still reside? Their kids attend the same schools they did – there is no “overthinking” about “scores” and such. This parent demographic is also very alive and well in SD County. Then you have to factor in all the buyers where school district or “API scores” are meaningless, and there are many.

Don’t know the percentages of these groups but would surmise they vary, depending on area of the county and age of community.

Not overthinking it too much, I would say that if the properties the buyer is interested in have 2002 asking prices (with little to no improvements made since 2002), then it is probably priced right. If a property has had substantial improvements made to it between 2002 and the present, then possibly a 2002 price, plus the labor/material value of the improvements would be a fair price, assuming the buyer wanted and would use all of the improvements made.

As you know, Rich, it is impossible to put a set appreciation rate on the entire county as each micro-market has its own rate of appreciation or depreciation, depending on the level of distressed current (and sometimes shadow) inventory that lie within it.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Transplant] . . . I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).[/quote]

This is a valid point for SOME buyers. But what is the actual percentage of buyers where school district is the be-all and end-all in their purchase decision? And just because active Piggs might be overwhelmingly of a certain demographic and general locale, what about the many adults that settle with their familes within five minutes of the home they grew up in, in which their parent(s) often still reside? Their kids attend the same schools they did – there is no “overthinking” about “scores” and such. This parent demographic is also very alive and well in SD County. Then you have to factor in all the buyers where school district or “API scores” are meaningless, and there are many.

Don’t know the percentages of these groups but would surmise they vary, depending on area of the county and age of community.

Not overthinking it too much, I would say that if the properties the buyer is interested in have 2002 asking prices (with little to no improvements made since 2002), then it is probably priced right. If a property has had substantial improvements made to it between 2002 and the present, then possibly a 2002 price, plus the labor/material value of the improvements would be a fair price, assuming the buyer wanted and would use all of the improvements made.

As you know, Rich, it is impossible to put a set appreciation rate on the entire county as each micro-market has its own rate of appreciation or depreciation, depending on the level of distressed current (and sometimes shadow) inventory that lie within it.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Transplant] . . . I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).[/quote]

This is a valid point for SOME buyers. But what is the actual percentage of buyers where school district is the be-all and end-all in their purchase decision? And just because active Piggs might be overwhelmingly of a certain demographic and general locale, what about the many adults that settle with their familes within five minutes of the home they grew up in, in which their parent(s) often still reside? Their kids attend the same schools they did – there is no “overthinking” about “scores” and such. This parent demographic is also very alive and well in SD County. Then you have to factor in all the buyers where school district or “API scores” are meaningless, and there are many.

Don’t know the percentages of these groups but would surmise they vary, depending on area of the county and age of community.

Not overthinking it too much, I would say that if the properties the buyer is interested in have 2002 asking prices (with little to no improvements made since 2002), then it is probably priced right. If a property has had substantial improvements made to it between 2002 and the present, then possibly a 2002 price, plus the labor/material value of the improvements would be a fair price, assuming the buyer wanted and would use all of the improvements made.

As you know, Rich, it is impossible to put a set appreciation rate on the entire county as each micro-market has its own rate of appreciation or depreciation, depending on the level of distressed current (and sometimes shadow) inventory that lie within it.

[Anonymous]

If the information is available, I believe any areas that suffer from higher unemployment (or underemployment)should see a greater depreciation in home values. Would this information show up in the SANDAG numbers? Also, interest rates were much lower from 2003 to present than they were in 1999 which would translate to being able to afford a more expensive house during the later years. Otherwise, I think you are using a good general formula.

[Anonymous]

If the information is available, I believe any areas that suffer from higher unemployment (or underemployment)should see a greater depreciation in home values. Would this information show up in the SANDAG numbers? Also, interest rates were much lower from 2003 to present than they were in 1999 which would translate to being able to afford a more expensive house during the later years. Otherwise, I think you are using a good general formula.

[Anonymous]

If the information is available, I believe any areas that suffer from higher unemployment (or underemployment)should see a greater depreciation in home values. Would this information show up in the SANDAG numbers? Also, interest rates were much lower from 2003 to present than they were in 1999 which would translate to being able to afford a more expensive house during the later years. Otherwise, I think you are using a good general formula.

[Anonymous]

If the information is available, I believe any areas that suffer from higher unemployment (or underemployment)should see a greater depreciation in home values. Would this information show up in the SANDAG numbers? Also, interest rates were much lower from 2003 to present than they were in 1999 which would translate to being able to afford a more expensive house during the later years. Otherwise, I think you are using a good general formula.

[Author]

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