Going on the radio this afternoon… quick questions for the piggs

[Rich Toscano]

Hi all – So my thin, raspy non-radio voice will be on the radio today (KOGO AM 600 at 2:50PM if you’re interested) to talk about the valuation/when to buy articles for about 10 minutes. I think the host wants to get more into detail about what areas it makes sense to buy in.

I don’t really have good data on this, other than the generalizations (subprime bloodbath areas are cheaper than coastal, etc). So I thought maybe I would use this super simplistic formula:

– housing prices were reasonable (broadly, with less post bubble dispersion) in 1999
– according to SANDAG, median household income has risen about 50% since 1999
– therefore, one way to gauge reasonableness is to see if a home is priced approx. 50% over its 1999-era price

This btw is the ocrenter method… he always targeted a move back to prices in a certain year. So since I think highly of him it’s probably a solid approach… I wanted to throw it out there if anyone had additional thoughts. (And maybe easy tricks for adjusting to prices in different years, eg 01).

Thanks!

[SD Transplant]

Looking forward to listen to your interview Rich..a quick monkey wrench into your formula since it was covered by piggs multiple times are the impact of school districts and API scores vis-a-vis house prices. I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).

[SD Transplant]

Looking forward to listen to your interview Rich..a quick monkey wrench into your formula since it was covered by piggs multiple times are the impact of school districts and API scores vis-a-vis house prices. I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).

[SD Transplant]

Looking forward to listen to your interview Rich..a quick monkey wrench into your formula since it was covered by piggs multiple times are the impact of school districts and API scores vis-a-vis house prices. I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).

[SD Transplant]

Looking forward to listen to your interview Rich..a quick monkey wrench into your formula since it was covered by piggs multiple times are the impact of school districts and API scores vis-a-vis house prices. I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).

[SD Transplant]

Looking forward to listen to your interview Rich..a quick monkey wrench into your formula since it was covered by piggs multiple times are the impact of school districts and API scores vis-a-vis house prices. I don’t have the value/multiplier that will make one potential buyer pay an additional mark up just based on schools API scoring, but I know it is valid/reasonable since we ended up purchasing because of the school district strenght (perception at least).

[j]

You are right about house price appreciation being directly related to income appreciation. Chris Thornberg (formerly UCLA Anderson Forecast) always pointed out that two studies showed a .01% and .02% increase in house prices adjusted to income. The .01% study used 400 years worth of house prices.

Thornberg was one of the few economists that predicted a recession. He predicted a change of one at UCLA (because of politics), and he flat out predicted a severe recession in his first forecast at Beacon.

[j]

You are right about house price appreciation being directly related to income appreciation. Chris Thornberg (formerly UCLA Anderson Forecast) always pointed out that two studies showed a .01% and .02% increase in house prices adjusted to income. The .01% study used 400 years worth of house prices.

Thornberg was one of the few economists that predicted a recession. He predicted a change of one at UCLA (because of politics), and he flat out predicted a severe recession in his first forecast at Beacon.

[j]

You are right about house price appreciation being directly related to income appreciation. Chris Thornberg (formerly UCLA Anderson Forecast) always pointed out that two studies showed a .01% and .02% increase in house prices adjusted to income. The .01% study used 400 years worth of house prices.

Thornberg was one of the few economists that predicted a recession. He predicted a change of one at UCLA (because of politics), and he flat out predicted a severe recession in his first forecast at Beacon.

[j]

You are right about house price appreciation being directly related to income appreciation. Chris Thornberg (formerly UCLA Anderson Forecast) always pointed out that two studies showed a .01% and .02% increase in house prices adjusted to income. The .01% study used 400 years worth of house prices.

Thornberg was one of the few economists that predicted a recession. He predicted a change of one at UCLA (because of politics), and he flat out predicted a severe recession in his first forecast at Beacon.

[j]

You are right about house price appreciation being directly related to income appreciation. Chris Thornberg (formerly UCLA Anderson Forecast) always pointed out that two studies showed a .01% and .02% increase in house prices adjusted to income. The .01% study used 400 years worth of house prices.

Thornberg was one of the few economists that predicted a recession. He predicted a change of one at UCLA (because of politics), and he flat out predicted a severe recession in his first forecast at Beacon.

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks for the input SDT. Would that have changed over 10 years though? The purpose of this is to encapsulate all neighborhood- and house-specific factors so that we can compare apples to apples. Has demand for different areas significantly changed over 10 years?

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks for the input SDT. Would that have changed over 10 years though? The purpose of this is to encapsulate all neighborhood- and house-specific factors so that we can compare apples to apples. Has demand for different areas significantly changed over 10 years?

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks for the input SDT. Would that have changed over 10 years though? The purpose of this is to encapsulate all neighborhood- and house-specific factors so that we can compare apples to apples. Has demand for different areas significantly changed over 10 years?

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks for the input SDT. Would that have changed over 10 years though? The purpose of this is to encapsulate all neighborhood- and house-specific factors so that we can compare apples to apples. Has demand for different areas significantly changed over 10 years?

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