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peterb.
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May 9, 2009 at 4:34 PM #396366May 9, 2009 at 4:49 PM #395712
SD Realtor
ParticipantI dont argue with any of the graphs he has, or the projections. Everything makes perfect sense. Except it is not how it is playing out. He does not mention government interventions, he doesn’t talk about moratoriums, he doesn’t dare mention our esteemed president Obama.
His analysis is exactly the way I USED to analyze things until I became much more cycnical. He glossed over the stress tests. What happened Friday? The financials rallied. The FED CUT DEALS WITH THE BANKS PRIOR TO THE FREAKING OUTCOME!
Guys it is a joke. A very bad joke.
************
I am hoping for one of a few things. That indeed the foreclosures will ramp up. That gives me some hope. Also the more failing treasury auctions the better, although that event will roll out much more slowly then we need. The 2011 resets and all that other stuff is something that our esteemed government can take care of.
For those of you thinking about the investors who can block short sales or loan mods, do you think the bond holders who had secured debt for chrysler felt the same way before the government told them to f. off?
Perhaps I have become overly cycnical…. I certainly hope so.
The biggest and I mean HUGEST flaw in the analysis of many is that it is based on a level playing field that is more or less free market based. The reality at least that I am seeing is that the market is becoming less free everyday. Jeez the banks are not even the banks anymore right? Are they totally unfettered, operating with no obligations to the government now?
The next few months will be quite telling and if we have a nice ramp up in foreclosures hitting the market I will be less pissy.
May 9, 2009 at 4:49 PM #395962ParticipantI dont argue with any of the graphs he has, or the projections. Everything makes perfect sense. Except it is not how it is playing out. He does not mention government interventions, he doesn’t talk about moratoriums, he doesn’t dare mention our esteemed president Obama.
His analysis is exactly the way I USED to analyze things until I became much more cycnical. He glossed over the stress tests. What happened Friday? The financials rallied. The FED CUT DEALS WITH THE BANKS PRIOR TO THE FREAKING OUTCOME!
Guys it is a joke. A very bad joke.
************
I am hoping for one of a few things. That indeed the foreclosures will ramp up. That gives me some hope. Also the more failing treasury auctions the better, although that event will roll out much more slowly then we need. The 2011 resets and all that other stuff is something that our esteemed government can take care of.
For those of you thinking about the investors who can block short sales or loan mods, do you think the bond holders who had secured debt for chrysler felt the same way before the government told them to f. off?
Perhaps I have become overly cycnical…. I certainly hope so.
The biggest and I mean HUGEST flaw in the analysis of many is that it is based on a level playing field that is more or less free market based. The reality at least that I am seeing is that the market is becoming less free everyday. Jeez the banks are not even the banks anymore right? Are they totally unfettered, operating with no obligations to the government now?
The next few months will be quite telling and if we have a nice ramp up in foreclosures hitting the market I will be less pissy.
May 9, 2009 at 4:49 PM #396184ParticipantI dont argue with any of the graphs he has, or the projections. Everything makes perfect sense. Except it is not how it is playing out. He does not mention government interventions, he doesn’t talk about moratoriums, he doesn’t dare mention our esteemed president Obama.
His analysis is exactly the way I USED to analyze things until I became much more cycnical. He glossed over the stress tests. What happened Friday? The financials rallied. The FED CUT DEALS WITH THE BANKS PRIOR TO THE FREAKING OUTCOME!
Guys it is a joke. A very bad joke.
************
I am hoping for one of a few things. That indeed the foreclosures will ramp up. That gives me some hope. Also the more failing treasury auctions the better, although that event will roll out much more slowly then we need. The 2011 resets and all that other stuff is something that our esteemed government can take care of.
For those of you thinking about the investors who can block short sales or loan mods, do you think the bond holders who had secured debt for chrysler felt the same way before the government told them to f. off?
Perhaps I have become overly cycnical…. I certainly hope so.
The biggest and I mean HUGEST flaw in the analysis of many is that it is based on a level playing field that is more or less free market based. The reality at least that I am seeing is that the market is becoming less free everyday. Jeez the banks are not even the banks anymore right? Are they totally unfettered, operating with no obligations to the government now?
The next few months will be quite telling and if we have a nice ramp up in foreclosures hitting the market I will be less pissy.
May 9, 2009 at 4:49 PM #396237ParticipantI dont argue with any of the graphs he has, or the projections. Everything makes perfect sense. Except it is not how it is playing out. He does not mention government interventions, he doesn’t talk about moratoriums, he doesn’t dare mention our esteemed president Obama.
His analysis is exactly the way I USED to analyze things until I became much more cycnical. He glossed over the stress tests. What happened Friday? The financials rallied. The FED CUT DEALS WITH THE BANKS PRIOR TO THE FREAKING OUTCOME!
Guys it is a joke. A very bad joke.
************
I am hoping for one of a few things. That indeed the foreclosures will ramp up. That gives me some hope. Also the more failing treasury auctions the better, although that event will roll out much more slowly then we need. The 2011 resets and all that other stuff is something that our esteemed government can take care of.
For those of you thinking about the investors who can block short sales or loan mods, do you think the bond holders who had secured debt for chrysler felt the same way before the government told them to f. off?
Perhaps I have become overly cycnical…. I certainly hope so.
The biggest and I mean HUGEST flaw in the analysis of many is that it is based on a level playing field that is more or less free market based. The reality at least that I am seeing is that the market is becoming less free everyday. Jeez the banks are not even the banks anymore right? Are they totally unfettered, operating with no obligations to the government now?
The next few months will be quite telling and if we have a nice ramp up in foreclosures hitting the market I will be less pissy.
May 9, 2009 at 4:49 PM #396381ParticipantI dont argue with any of the graphs he has, or the projections. Everything makes perfect sense. Except it is not how it is playing out. He does not mention government interventions, he doesn’t talk about moratoriums, he doesn’t dare mention our esteemed president Obama.
His analysis is exactly the way I USED to analyze things until I became much more cycnical. He glossed over the stress tests. What happened Friday? The financials rallied. The FED CUT DEALS WITH THE BANKS PRIOR TO THE FREAKING OUTCOME!
Guys it is a joke. A very bad joke.
************
I am hoping for one of a few things. That indeed the foreclosures will ramp up. That gives me some hope. Also the more failing treasury auctions the better, although that event will roll out much more slowly then we need. The 2011 resets and all that other stuff is something that our esteemed government can take care of.
For those of you thinking about the investors who can block short sales or loan mods, do you think the bond holders who had secured debt for chrysler felt the same way before the government told them to f. off?
Perhaps I have become overly cycnical…. I certainly hope so.
The biggest and I mean HUGEST flaw in the analysis of many is that it is based on a level playing field that is more or less free market based. The reality at least that I am seeing is that the market is becoming less free everyday. Jeez the banks are not even the banks anymore right? Are they totally unfettered, operating with no obligations to the government now?
The next few months will be quite telling and if we have a nice ramp up in foreclosures hitting the market I will be less pissy.
May 10, 2009 at 12:17 PM #395950CAwireman
ParticipantDan The Dart,
Awesome post and reference to the Dr. Housing Bubble article.
That one says is all!
Thanks!
===========================
[quote=danthedart]Have you guys read Dr. Housing Bubble’s latest?
A few interesting things from the article:
– The stock market is a bad indicator because its completely disconnected with what is happening in the real world. Remember the stock market has predicted 6 out of the last 0 economic recoveries and 12 out of the last 9 recessions.
– The peak of the alt-a option arm recasts will be in 2011.
– Unemployment was the driving factor in the last 2 housing collapses in California. Unemployment affects housing a lot more than it does the overall economy. [/quote]
May 10, 2009 at 12:17 PM #396201ParticipantDan The Dart,
Awesome post and reference to the Dr. Housing Bubble article.
That one says is all!
Thanks!
===========================
[quote=danthedart]Have you guys read Dr. Housing Bubble’s latest?
A few interesting things from the article:
– The stock market is a bad indicator because its completely disconnected with what is happening in the real world. Remember the stock market has predicted 6 out of the last 0 economic recoveries and 12 out of the last 9 recessions.
– The peak of the alt-a option arm recasts will be in 2011.
– Unemployment was the driving factor in the last 2 housing collapses in California. Unemployment affects housing a lot more than it does the overall economy. [/quote]
May 10, 2009 at 12:17 PM #396424ParticipantDan The Dart,
Awesome post and reference to the Dr. Housing Bubble article.
That one says is all!
Thanks!
===========================
[quote=danthedart]Have you guys read Dr. Housing Bubble’s latest?
A few interesting things from the article:
– The stock market is a bad indicator because its completely disconnected with what is happening in the real world. Remember the stock market has predicted 6 out of the last 0 economic recoveries and 12 out of the last 9 recessions.
– The peak of the alt-a option arm recasts will be in 2011.
– Unemployment was the driving factor in the last 2 housing collapses in California. Unemployment affects housing a lot more than it does the overall economy. [/quote]
May 10, 2009 at 12:17 PM #396478ParticipantDan The Dart,
Awesome post and reference to the Dr. Housing Bubble article.
That one says is all!
Thanks!
===========================
[quote=danthedart]Have you guys read Dr. Housing Bubble’s latest?
A few interesting things from the article:
– The stock market is a bad indicator because its completely disconnected with what is happening in the real world. Remember the stock market has predicted 6 out of the last 0 economic recoveries and 12 out of the last 9 recessions.
– The peak of the alt-a option arm recasts will be in 2011.
– Unemployment was the driving factor in the last 2 housing collapses in California. Unemployment affects housing a lot more than it does the overall economy. [/quote]
May 10, 2009 at 12:17 PM #396622ParticipantDan The Dart,
Awesome post and reference to the Dr. Housing Bubble article.
That one says is all!
Thanks!
===========================
[quote=danthedart]Have you guys read Dr. Housing Bubble’s latest?
A few interesting things from the article:
– The stock market is a bad indicator because its completely disconnected with what is happening in the real world. Remember the stock market has predicted 6 out of the last 0 economic recoveries and 12 out of the last 9 recessions.
– The peak of the alt-a option arm recasts will be in 2011.
– Unemployment was the driving factor in the last 2 housing collapses in California. Unemployment affects housing a lot more than it does the overall economy. [/quote]
May 10, 2009 at 12:36 PM #395955peterb
ParticipantIf you can find a graph of CA RE prices from 1960 until now and overlay the unemployment figures on top of it, you’ll see how unemployment is by far the biggest factor is determining where the prices are headed. Anything over 7% causes downward pricing pressure. We’re at 11.3% and growing. This is far, far from over.
May 10, 2009 at 12:36 PM #396206ParticipantIf you can find a graph of CA RE prices from 1960 until now and overlay the unemployment figures on top of it, you’ll see how unemployment is by far the biggest factor is determining where the prices are headed. Anything over 7% causes downward pricing pressure. We’re at 11.3% and growing. This is far, far from over.
May 10, 2009 at 12:36 PM #396429ParticipantIf you can find a graph of CA RE prices from 1960 until now and overlay the unemployment figures on top of it, you’ll see how unemployment is by far the biggest factor is determining where the prices are headed. Anything over 7% causes downward pricing pressure. We’re at 11.3% and growing. This is far, far from over.
May 10, 2009 at 12:36 PM #396483ParticipantIf you can find a graph of CA RE prices from 1960 until now and overlay the unemployment figures on top of it, you’ll see how unemployment is by far the biggest factor is determining where the prices are headed. Anything over 7% causes downward pricing pressure. We’re at 11.3% and growing. This is far, far from over.
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