Fed empties the Armory, expends all ammo, housing has bottomed. SD RE will cost more in August of 09 than it does now.

[sdduuuude]

Naw. Not really. I have a house and hope to buy a different one in about 5 years. The median has gotten killed. Another 25% would really be bad news. I’m more concerned w/ staying employed than housing prices at this point.

Plus, I’m relying on a statistical anomaly to win. I think price reductions at the low end are just about done, and suspect the future damage will be done in properties above the median which will have little affect on the median at all.

Note how in the early days of the crash, the low end was getting killed. In fact, it bumped up as low-end sales reduced. We all saw it, but the median barely moved. Then, as it hit middle ground, the median collapsed. As it moves past the median, I suspect the movement of the median will slow dramatically even as some neighborhoods get creamed. Sales reductions on the high end, though, will push it down a bit.

Not sure I’d take the “under 25%” position if it were Case-Schiller. Maybe I would. Yeah. I think I would.

So the magic number is 228,750.

Can anyone clarify what median measure was $305K in Nov ? Was it all sales or resales ?

[Eugene]

It was all sales, but it does not matter much, because new sales are almost at standstill. New sales tend to be more expensive, resale-only median would have been lower.

There were 2667 sales, including 1629 detached resales, 779 condo resales, and 259 new sales. New sales were most active in Santee (32), Escondido East (30), Rancho Bernardo West (29).

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SDUT-Charts/ZIPSDUT.aspx

November median sales price is lower than value of a median house. Top tier November sales volume went off the cliff because of the stock market crash. Fewer high-end sales – lower apparent median.

[Eugene]

It was all sales, but it does not matter much, because new sales are almost at standstill. New sales tend to be more expensive, resale-only median would have been lower.

There were 2667 sales, including 1629 detached resales, 779 condo resales, and 259 new sales. New sales were most active in Santee (32), Escondido East (30), Rancho Bernardo West (29).

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SDUT-Charts/ZIPSDUT.aspx

November median sales price is lower than value of a median house. Top tier November sales volume went off the cliff because of the stock market crash. Fewer high-end sales – lower apparent median.

[Eugene]

It was all sales, but it does not matter much, because new sales are almost at standstill. New sales tend to be more expensive, resale-only median would have been lower.

There were 2667 sales, including 1629 detached resales, 779 condo resales, and 259 new sales. New sales were most active in Santee (32), Escondido East (30), Rancho Bernardo West (29).

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SDUT-Charts/ZIPSDUT.aspx

November median sales price is lower than value of a median house. Top tier November sales volume went off the cliff because of the stock market crash. Fewer high-end sales – lower apparent median.

[Eugene]

It was all sales, but it does not matter much, because new sales are almost at standstill. New sales tend to be more expensive, resale-only median would have been lower.

There were 2667 sales, including 1629 detached resales, 779 condo resales, and 259 new sales. New sales were most active in Santee (32), Escondido East (30), Rancho Bernardo West (29).

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SDUT-Charts/ZIPSDUT.aspx

November median sales price is lower than value of a median house. Top tier November sales volume went off the cliff because of the stock market crash. Fewer high-end sales – lower apparent median.

[Eugene]

It was all sales, but it does not matter much, because new sales are almost at standstill. New sales tend to be more expensive, resale-only median would have been lower.

There were 2667 sales, including 1629 detached resales, 779 condo resales, and 259 new sales. New sales were most active in Santee (32), Escondido East (30), Rancho Bernardo West (29).

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SDUT-Charts/ZIPSDUT.aspx

November median sales price is lower than value of a median house. Top tier November sales volume went off the cliff because of the stock market crash. Fewer high-end sales – lower apparent median.

[Author]

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