Do you feel the economy getting better?

[Arraya]

The economy is not getting better per se though peoples delusion about future economic prospects is increasing aka confidence – which actually does bolster economic activity(for a short time). The wave of confidence will all turn at once. I take this thread as a contrarian indicator. We must be nearing a top again.

[markmax33]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=markmax33]Any increase in the economy is directly tied to the cheap money lending by the federal reserve and has next to nothing to do with the what the federal government has done to stimulate the economy.[/quote]

I agree this overall. I think the stimulus that the economy got is mostly from increased lending that the household has got in the last few months. People who use to work for 35 hours, now work for 40 hours. And people who used to have a bad job now got a better job. So the banks are now more willing to lend to them given their alternative option is almost-no-yield treasury.

However, this may be sustainable because animal spirit has its own way of growth. The corporate margin is finally declining though and EU/China still pose risks. So it might be a mini-bubble as well. I can’t predict the future.[/quote]

The bubble created is probably not a mini-bubble. It is a huge inflation bubble as the money supply is expanding infinitely. We just haven’t paid the Piper yet. We may have to wait for the European contagion to clear before we have our day of reckonoging. At some point our dollar will look like the worst asset on the block.

[Arraya]

Money supply HAS TO expand infinitely or the whole thing collapses. Contradictorally, it will collapse on top of itself, if it keeps expanding.

[quote]We may have to wait for the European contagion to clear before we have our day of reckonoging[/quote]

Yes – though, I don’t think it will clear but spread to the US(the “market” is focused on Europe now and it is not very forward thinking or rational and is easilty tricked). Then deflation comes via panic, the dollar will skyrocket and gold bugs will beg for printing. Until that plays out THEN the dollar dies – it will be, maybe, a decade or so.

[paramount]

[quote=carlsbadworker]

paramount, you must be living in a different town than I am. The home price is still higher than 2008-2009 although it starts to have some competitive pricing. But there are lots of traffic for any home that is competitively priced. Inventory for investment-grade home is almost non-existent. Multiple offers above the list price is common for other homes.

New homes are also selling but I don’t know how it compared to before because I am never interested in that category. But construction is happening. At Home Depot and Lowes, however, I have yet to see any significant traffic increase.

The steakhouses in Temecula now has very long lines over the weekend. The line used to be non-existent in the last few years (the long lines were common in bubble years as well). I don’t know what caused it, but it seems that people just become very bullish about the economy in the last few months. My neighbor (who I suspect is not paying their mortgage) just bought a new car. And dealership would not negotiate or price-match on price anymore (2 years ago, when I bought my last car, they are very cooperative in pricing). 3 years ago, they were making insane price cuts to get off their inventory.[/quote]

Check Zillow for 92592…

[The-Shoveler]

Few thoughts,
I think FLU is correct
The iphone/Smartphone bubble has been and continues to be so anyone living about 30-40 minutes from QCOM, sorry I think you live in bubble land again (add ipad to that list as well).

Cars are somewhat High ticket items.
Just judging by the fact there were four or five car spots for the super bowl, I got to think things are getting at least somewhat better.

Anything to do with social media looks to be heating up.

And really the Gov’s involvement with the financing of mortgages I think is just getting warmed up as well.

One more thought

If we attack Iran, everything goes out the window.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=paramount]Check Zillow for 92592…[/quote]

I don’t need to check sites like Zillow or Redfin. I am actually out bidding for houses right now. Let me tell you it is tough for buyers right now…much tougher than end of 2008 (it wasn’t easy at that time either). The price is higher and you still won’t get it at listing for reasonably priced homes.

[markmax33]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]
And really the Gov’s involvement with the financing of mortgages I think is just getting warmed up as well.
[/quote]

The GOV already purchases 90% of the loans through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I’d say the
GOV has the mortgage business cornered already…

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya]Money supply HAS TO expand infinitely or the whole thing collapses. Contradictorally, it will collapse on top of itself, if it keeps expanding.

[quote]We may have to wait for the European contagion to clear before we have our day of reckonoging[/quote]

Yes – though, I don’t think it will clear but spread to the US(the “market” is focused on Europe now and it is not very forward thinking or rational and is easilty tricked). Then deflation comes via panic, the dollar will skyrocket and gold bugs will beg for printing. Until that plays out THEN the dollar dies – it will be, maybe, a decade or so.[/quote]

Agreed.

[The-Shoveler]

Well Rich T. bought, that must mean it’s over,

Just kidding,

[temeculaguy]

I’m with carlsbadworker, I think zillow or redfin can paint a somewhat distorted view. There were times where just looking at those sites made things look better than they were and times where they can make it look worse. I think this is one of those times it makes it look worse. I have a buddy who want to buy in my neighborhood and he is totally frustrated. He’s willing to pay 15-20% more than I paid at the end of 2008, but he can’t. He has to go to 30% over and it seems to be getting worse. I have the refin app on my phone and we’ve driven around a few times, even though a place is listed and it says it’s active, when you call, it’s a different story. I’m afraid he’s not going to able to pull this off by himself, he’s going to need a buyers agent, the good ones and the well priced ones are going quick.

Brown lawns are rare now, but perhaps the best analysis of our local market, I refi’d just a few months ago to a conventional, dropping my PMI. Their independent appraisal had my house appraised something like 25 or 30% up in just 30 months.

[scaredyclassic]

Well ok tg but you got a really good deal. So it’s not really up that much for a normal buyer over that span, right?

[Coronita]

I see a lot more people driving around a leased/financed BMW lately at the stealership… So they must be able to afford things again… Oh wait, that’s just because it’s SoCal… My bad.. 🙁

[paramount]

A snapshot of 92592 per Zillow:

[img_assist|nid=15811|title=Feb 2012 92592|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=961|height=600]

[paramount]

Sorry it’s not a perfect graphic, but what I see is a downward trend overall, and for this house in my hood a dogleg down.

I bought nearly 10 years ago, I owe 220k, the house is worth *maybe* 190k at best and that doesn’t include commission fees. So realistically I’m down a good 45k.

I had a tough time getting it rented even though the house was in pristine condition; and then only after 2 months the tenants (IMO) burnt up my furnace to the tune of 2k.

Yah, it’s starting to sound like a Greek Tragedy I know.

If I can’t get a loan mod, I’m done.

It ain’t coming back.

So yah, from my perspective things ain’t all that great.

[creechrr]

[quote=paramount][quote=carlsbadworker]

paramount, you must be living in a different town than I am. The home price is still higher than 2008-2009 although it starts to have some competitive pricing. But there are lots of traffic for any home that is competitively priced. Inventory for investment-grade home is almost non-existent. Multiple offers above the list price is common for other homes.

New homes are also selling but I don’t know how it compared to before because I am never interested in that category. But construction is happening. At Home Depot and Lowes, however, I have yet to see any significant traffic increase.

The steakhouses in Temecula now has very long lines over the weekend. The line used to be non-existent in the last few years (the long lines were common in bubble years as well). I don’t know what caused it, but it seems that people just become very bullish about the economy in the last few months. My neighbor (who I suspect is not paying their mortgage) just bought a new car. And dealership would not negotiate or price-match on price anymore (2 years ago, when I bought my last car, they are very cooperative in pricing). 3 years ago, they were making insane price cuts to get off their inventory.[/quote]

Check Zillow for 92592…[/quote]

I recently joined the home debtor club, purchasing in 92592 in the second half of last year. The house is new construction and the builder is nearly complete with the project. There are only about eight lots left to build on. People move in right away.

The neighboring builder seems to be moving along at a pretty good clip also.

At the time of our purchase incentives were minimal and the same is being offered today.

[Author]

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