Deflation, inflation – Housing. Thinkng out loud

[svelte]

All the government has to do is print a boatload of money – and by that I mean several times more than anything they’ve done to date – and get it into the system…if they do that, inflation will take off.

This would solve some problems but create others…for one thing, the buying power of senior’s 401Ks would be greatly reduced…and you don’t want to piss seniors off.

The way I look at it is this: if you buy now, prices in most areas probably aren’t going to drop much more. They may not rise for 10 years, but they aren’t going to go down another 30-50% either.

Buying now allows you to lock into the current mortgage rate in case rates take off and also helps work you towards paying off your mortgage. What I think many forget to realize is that every year you rent pushes out the payoff date of your mortgage another year. True most don’t keep a house that long anyway, but some people do – especially with prop 13 in place.

It wasn’t but a year ago that pigs were saying better to put your money in the bank and draw 5% interest, that was the way to go. Well, with current interest rates on CDs etc that doesn’t look so hot anymore, does it?

You only get so much cash…put it where it makes you happiest. And for me, renting sucks.

[temeculaguy]

DWCAP, I think you misinterpreted HLS’ post. He was not claiming that Irvine, Santa Clarita and Temecula boomed and then were cut off by high gas prices. He was pointing out that over time in So Cal, we’ve had ups and downs but this latest up was an exception, that we aren’t in a housing crisis but rather a needed reset to reality and traditional financing. Having lived in two of the three aforementioned regions during their booms, in the case of Irvine in the 1970’s and Santa Clarita of the 1980’s, both attracted people and ended up quite autonomous today, especially Irvine. Irvine isn’t being cut off because people can’t afford to get to their jobs from there, the jobs are there now.

People didn’t stop buying because of commodity prices, people stopped because the prices were fundamentally unsound, caused by destructive financing.

[temeculaguy]

DWCAP, I think you misinterpreted HLS’ post. He was not claiming that Irvine, Santa Clarita and Temecula boomed and then were cut off by high gas prices. He was pointing out that over time in So Cal, we’ve had ups and downs but this latest up was an exception, that we aren’t in a housing crisis but rather a needed reset to reality and traditional financing. Having lived in two of the three aforementioned regions during their booms, in the case of Irvine in the 1970’s and Santa Clarita of the 1980’s, both attracted people and ended up quite autonomous today, especially Irvine. Irvine isn’t being cut off because people can’t afford to get to their jobs from there, the jobs are there now.

People didn’t stop buying because of commodity prices, people stopped because the prices were fundamentally unsound, caused by destructive financing.

[temeculaguy]

DWCAP, I think you misinterpreted HLS’ post. He was not claiming that Irvine, Santa Clarita and Temecula boomed and then were cut off by high gas prices. He was pointing out that over time in So Cal, we’ve had ups and downs but this latest up was an exception, that we aren’t in a housing crisis but rather a needed reset to reality and traditional financing. Having lived in two of the three aforementioned regions during their booms, in the case of Irvine in the 1970’s and Santa Clarita of the 1980’s, both attracted people and ended up quite autonomous today, especially Irvine. Irvine isn’t being cut off because people can’t afford to get to their jobs from there, the jobs are there now.

People didn’t stop buying because of commodity prices, people stopped because the prices were fundamentally unsound, caused by destructive financing.

[temeculaguy]

DWCAP, I think you misinterpreted HLS’ post. He was not claiming that Irvine, Santa Clarita and Temecula boomed and then were cut off by high gas prices. He was pointing out that over time in So Cal, we’ve had ups and downs but this latest up was an exception, that we aren’t in a housing crisis but rather a needed reset to reality and traditional financing. Having lived in two of the three aforementioned regions during their booms, in the case of Irvine in the 1970’s and Santa Clarita of the 1980’s, both attracted people and ended up quite autonomous today, especially Irvine. Irvine isn’t being cut off because people can’t afford to get to their jobs from there, the jobs are there now.

People didn’t stop buying because of commodity prices, people stopped because the prices were fundamentally unsound, caused by destructive financing.

[temeculaguy]

DWCAP, I think you misinterpreted HLS’ post. He was not claiming that Irvine, Santa Clarita and Temecula boomed and then were cut off by high gas prices. He was pointing out that over time in So Cal, we’ve had ups and downs but this latest up was an exception, that we aren’t in a housing crisis but rather a needed reset to reality and traditional financing. Having lived in two of the three aforementioned regions during their booms, in the case of Irvine in the 1970’s and Santa Clarita of the 1980’s, both attracted people and ended up quite autonomous today, especially Irvine. Irvine isn’t being cut off because people can’t afford to get to their jobs from there, the jobs are there now.

People didn’t stop buying because of commodity prices, people stopped because the prices were fundamentally unsound, caused by destructive financing.

[patientlywaiting]

[quote=4plexowner]no inflation in wages and no inflation in housing

the coming inflation will be in the things that we need on an everyday basis: you know, things like bread, milk, gasoline – simple things like that

I think it’s called stag-flation although this time around, hyper-stag-flation might be a better description

it is amusing to read all these people thinking that inflation is like magic and will somehow save them from their previous delusional thinking or somehow enable their current delusional thinking

here’s a very simple phrase to keep in mind:

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH[/quote]

I’m with 4plexowner on this.

I don’t see inflation in the consumer products that Walmart sells (plastic tubs, electronics, etc..) because of the glut of productive capacity brought about by manufacturing automation and low labor costs in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India and soon, Cuba (and eventually Africa). If there is peace in the Middle East, I have no doubt we’ll see lots of garments “made in Palestine”.

I would begin to worry about inflation if and when China and India become consumer societies.

What will be interesting to watch, in the next few years, is that as interest rates move up, house prices will commensurately drop while we have to pay more for food and education, health care and insurance.

[patientlywaiting]

[quote=4plexowner]no inflation in wages and no inflation in housing

the coming inflation will be in the things that we need on an everyday basis: you know, things like bread, milk, gasoline – simple things like that

I think it’s called stag-flation although this time around, hyper-stag-flation might be a better description

it is amusing to read all these people thinking that inflation is like magic and will somehow save them from their previous delusional thinking or somehow enable their current delusional thinking

here’s a very simple phrase to keep in mind:

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH[/quote]

I’m with 4plexowner on this.

I don’t see inflation in the consumer products that Walmart sells (plastic tubs, electronics, etc..) because of the glut of productive capacity brought about by manufacturing automation and low labor costs in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India and soon, Cuba (and eventually Africa). If there is peace in the Middle East, I have no doubt we’ll see lots of garments “made in Palestine”.

I would begin to worry about inflation if and when China and India become consumer societies.

What will be interesting to watch, in the next few years, is that as interest rates move up, house prices will commensurately drop while we have to pay more for food and education, health care and insurance.

[patientlywaiting]

[quote=4plexowner]no inflation in wages and no inflation in housing

the coming inflation will be in the things that we need on an everyday basis: you know, things like bread, milk, gasoline – simple things like that

I think it’s called stag-flation although this time around, hyper-stag-flation might be a better description

it is amusing to read all these people thinking that inflation is like magic and will somehow save them from their previous delusional thinking or somehow enable their current delusional thinking

here’s a very simple phrase to keep in mind:

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH[/quote]

I’m with 4plexowner on this.

I don’t see inflation in the consumer products that Walmart sells (plastic tubs, electronics, etc..) because of the glut of productive capacity brought about by manufacturing automation and low labor costs in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India and soon, Cuba (and eventually Africa). If there is peace in the Middle East, I have no doubt we’ll see lots of garments “made in Palestine”.

I would begin to worry about inflation if and when China and India become consumer societies.

What will be interesting to watch, in the next few years, is that as interest rates move up, house prices will commensurately drop while we have to pay more for food and education, health care and insurance.

[patientlywaiting]

[quote=4plexowner]no inflation in wages and no inflation in housing

the coming inflation will be in the things that we need on an everyday basis: you know, things like bread, milk, gasoline – simple things like that

I think it’s called stag-flation although this time around, hyper-stag-flation might be a better description

it is amusing to read all these people thinking that inflation is like magic and will somehow save them from their previous delusional thinking or somehow enable their current delusional thinking

here’s a very simple phrase to keep in mind:

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH[/quote]

I’m with 4plexowner on this.

I don’t see inflation in the consumer products that Walmart sells (plastic tubs, electronics, etc..) because of the glut of productive capacity brought about by manufacturing automation and low labor costs in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India and soon, Cuba (and eventually Africa). If there is peace in the Middle East, I have no doubt we’ll see lots of garments “made in Palestine”.

I would begin to worry about inflation if and when China and India become consumer societies.

What will be interesting to watch, in the next few years, is that as interest rates move up, house prices will commensurately drop while we have to pay more for food and education, health care and insurance.

[patientlywaiting]

[quote=4plexowner]no inflation in wages and no inflation in housing

the coming inflation will be in the things that we need on an everyday basis: you know, things like bread, milk, gasoline – simple things like that

I think it’s called stag-flation although this time around, hyper-stag-flation might be a better description

it is amusing to read all these people thinking that inflation is like magic and will somehow save them from their previous delusional thinking or somehow enable their current delusional thinking

here’s a very simple phrase to keep in mind:

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH[/quote]

I’m with 4plexowner on this.

I don’t see inflation in the consumer products that Walmart sells (plastic tubs, electronics, etc..) because of the glut of productive capacity brought about by manufacturing automation and low labor costs in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India and soon, Cuba (and eventually Africa). If there is peace in the Middle East, I have no doubt we’ll see lots of garments “made in Palestine”.

I would begin to worry about inflation if and when China and India become consumer societies.

What will be interesting to watch, in the next few years, is that as interest rates move up, house prices will commensurately drop while we have to pay more for food and education, health care and insurance.

[jpinpb]

I remember Temecula when it was Rancho California.

It was a commuter town when it started. Cheap and people commuted either to L.A., San Diego, Riverside or San Bernardino. Slowly at first, but accelerated in recent years, it became a self-sustaining city w/hospitals and courthouse and all the businesses associated w/most cities. Jobs were created along w/housing.

The artificially created prices is the most damaging thing to happen to these towns. People relied on equity to support a new lifestyle. Clearly not sustainable. I agree that prices will have to return to normal for things to be balanced. That doesn’t mean it will happen. Ideally, it should and if it did, it would solve a lot of problems.

They said the bubble wouldn’t pop and they are doing their darnest to drag this out, letting the air out slowly and gently and painfully long.

[jpinpb]

I remember Temecula when it was Rancho California.

It was a commuter town when it started. Cheap and people commuted either to L.A., San Diego, Riverside or San Bernardino. Slowly at first, but accelerated in recent years, it became a self-sustaining city w/hospitals and courthouse and all the businesses associated w/most cities. Jobs were created along w/housing.

The artificially created prices is the most damaging thing to happen to these towns. People relied on equity to support a new lifestyle. Clearly not sustainable. I agree that prices will have to return to normal for things to be balanced. That doesn’t mean it will happen. Ideally, it should and if it did, it would solve a lot of problems.

They said the bubble wouldn’t pop and they are doing their darnest to drag this out, letting the air out slowly and gently and painfully long.

[jpinpb]

I remember Temecula when it was Rancho California.

It was a commuter town when it started. Cheap and people commuted either to L.A., San Diego, Riverside or San Bernardino. Slowly at first, but accelerated in recent years, it became a self-sustaining city w/hospitals and courthouse and all the businesses associated w/most cities. Jobs were created along w/housing.

The artificially created prices is the most damaging thing to happen to these towns. People relied on equity to support a new lifestyle. Clearly not sustainable. I agree that prices will have to return to normal for things to be balanced. That doesn’t mean it will happen. Ideally, it should and if it did, it would solve a lot of problems.

They said the bubble wouldn’t pop and they are doing their darnest to drag this out, letting the air out slowly and gently and painfully long.

[jpinpb]

I remember Temecula when it was Rancho California.

It was a commuter town when it started. Cheap and people commuted either to L.A., San Diego, Riverside or San Bernardino. Slowly at first, but accelerated in recent years, it became a self-sustaining city w/hospitals and courthouse and all the businesses associated w/most cities. Jobs were created along w/housing.

The artificially created prices is the most damaging thing to happen to these towns. People relied on equity to support a new lifestyle. Clearly not sustainable. I agree that prices will have to return to normal for things to be balanced. That doesn’t mean it will happen. Ideally, it should and if it did, it would solve a lot of problems.

They said the bubble wouldn’t pop and they are doing their darnest to drag this out, letting the air out slowly and gently and painfully long.

[Author]

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