Deflation, inflation – Housing. Thinkng out loud

[Bubblesitter]

Great article by Rich on Deflation in the Active forum area.

Up until last year I was convinced that we were gonna enter a period of stagflation, perhaps a bad “that 70s show” rerun. It was starting to look that way with last summer’s huge gas spike. I thought that when the US sneezes the world would not catch a cold. I was wrong, this has become a worldwide recession.

In last 6 months, Deflation concerns have reared, the recession intensified and consumer demand has dropped.

However, I’m still firm believer that inflation will rear its head in a big way sometime next year or soon after. Especially with all the money being printed by the govt. As we exit from very long recession perhaps in 2010, interest rates across the board will likely rise across the board. As investors move away from Tresuries, interest rates will have to rise to attract investors. There has been a pretty good historical correlation between long term tresury rates and 30yr fixed rates.

I’m increasingly of the opinion that locking in a historic low ~5% 30yr fixed mortgage is important, and those with existing ARMs will be in a world of hurt. IMHO, rates have potential of going much higher. Downside of course for homeowners is that interest rates and housing prices move in reverse directions. This further compounds the refi problem of existing ARM holders.

What ever the situation, I just don’t see housing prices rising much in next 5-8 years, especially with continued downward pressure thru 2011 with current inventory overhang and ARM resets.

Just some thoughts. I’m trying to work thru some of my thinking, I’m seriously considering pulling the trigger on a house purchase soon, plan to put 25-30% down with 30yr fixed conforming, hopefully locking in around 5%. Plan to stay thru thru my kid’s high school, which would be 2025.

Bubblesitter

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

My grand father had a 10 acre farm in the San Fernando Valley in the 1930’s right where Warner Center is now (50 story office buildings incase you are not familiar with that local),

The San Fernando valley looked a lot like Palmdale Lancaster area in the 1930’s

In 1980 irvine was mostly farm land

In 1970 Valencia CA Population was about 15 thousand.

The theme here is very fast growth over a very long time period in SoCal .

So If you get your chance to buy a home during this downturn (how ever long it lasts)

Maybe you should (If you can afford it).

Just my two cents

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

My grand father had a 10 acre farm in the San Fernando Valley in the 1930’s right where Warner Center is now (50 story office buildings incase you are not familiar with that local),

The San Fernando valley looked a lot like Palmdale Lancaster area in the 1930’s

In 1980 irvine was mostly farm land

In 1970 Valencia CA Population was about 15 thousand.

The theme here is very fast growth over a very long time period in SoCal .

So If you get your chance to buy a home during this downturn (how ever long it lasts)

Maybe you should (If you can afford it).

Just my two cents

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

My grand father had a 10 acre farm in the San Fernando Valley in the 1930’s right where Warner Center is now (50 story office buildings incase you are not familiar with that local),

The San Fernando valley looked a lot like Palmdale Lancaster area in the 1930’s

In 1980 irvine was mostly farm land

In 1970 Valencia CA Population was about 15 thousand.

The theme here is very fast growth over a very long time period in SoCal .

So If you get your chance to buy a home during this downturn (how ever long it lasts)

Maybe you should (If you can afford it).

Just my two cents

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

My grand father had a 10 acre farm in the San Fernando Valley in the 1930’s right where Warner Center is now (50 story office buildings incase you are not familiar with that local),

The San Fernando valley looked a lot like Palmdale Lancaster area in the 1930’s

In 1980 irvine was mostly farm land

In 1970 Valencia CA Population was about 15 thousand.

The theme here is very fast growth over a very long time period in SoCal .

So If you get your chance to buy a home during this downturn (how ever long it lasts)

Maybe you should (If you can afford it).

Just my two cents

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

My grand father had a 10 acre farm in the San Fernando Valley in the 1930’s right where Warner Center is now (50 story office buildings incase you are not familiar with that local),

The San Fernando valley looked a lot like Palmdale Lancaster area in the 1930’s

In 1980 irvine was mostly farm land

In 1970 Valencia CA Population was about 15 thousand.

The theme here is very fast growth over a very long time period in SoCal .

So If you get your chance to buy a home during this downturn (how ever long it lasts)

Maybe you should (If you can afford it).

Just my two cents

[HLS]

I grew up in So Cal.. I remember when Irvine was orange groves, when Temecula was Rancho California in the 1960’s with very few houses, before Magic Mountain was in Valencia, etc.

The area exploded in the 70’s-80’s because housing was AFFORDABLE.
It made sense to buy and real estate wasn’t looked at as a road to riches, buying overpriced McMansions with ARM’s and other toxic loans created by Wall Street that were going to explode.

You actually had to qualify for a loan, which you could get with as little as 5% dow, and prove your income.

This isn’t a “downturn”, it’s a return to sanity.

The denial about what happened and thinking that you need/have a “chance” to buy a house is laughable.

The REAL crisis was the market bubble that the govt allowed to inflate.
The collapse of housing prices isn’t a crisis.

Foreclosures are not the problem, they are the solution.

The stock market is in the same boat. Believing that it’s a safe place for retirement may be foolish.

Until several generations accept/understand what was allowed to occur and that housing and the stock market are ponzi schemes, the charade will go on; artificially manipulating the market is the problem, not the solution.

Never buy a house EXPECTING it to go up. Appreciation should be a bonus….HLS

[HLS]

I grew up in So Cal.. I remember when Irvine was orange groves, when Temecula was Rancho California in the 1960’s with very few houses, before Magic Mountain was in Valencia, etc.

The area exploded in the 70’s-80’s because housing was AFFORDABLE.
It made sense to buy and real estate wasn’t looked at as a road to riches, buying overpriced McMansions with ARM’s and other toxic loans created by Wall Street that were going to explode.

You actually had to qualify for a loan, which you could get with as little as 5% dow, and prove your income.

This isn’t a “downturn”, it’s a return to sanity.

The denial about what happened and thinking that you need/have a “chance” to buy a house is laughable.

The REAL crisis was the market bubble that the govt allowed to inflate.
The collapse of housing prices isn’t a crisis.

Foreclosures are not the problem, they are the solution.

The stock market is in the same boat. Believing that it’s a safe place for retirement may be foolish.

Until several generations accept/understand what was allowed to occur and that housing and the stock market are ponzi schemes, the charade will go on; artificially manipulating the market is the problem, not the solution.

Never buy a house EXPECTING it to go up. Appreciation should be a bonus….HLS

[HLS]

I grew up in So Cal.. I remember when Irvine was orange groves, when Temecula was Rancho California in the 1960’s with very few houses, before Magic Mountain was in Valencia, etc.

The area exploded in the 70’s-80’s because housing was AFFORDABLE.
It made sense to buy and real estate wasn’t looked at as a road to riches, buying overpriced McMansions with ARM’s and other toxic loans created by Wall Street that were going to explode.

You actually had to qualify for a loan, which you could get with as little as 5% dow, and prove your income.

This isn’t a “downturn”, it’s a return to sanity.

The denial about what happened and thinking that you need/have a “chance” to buy a house is laughable.

The REAL crisis was the market bubble that the govt allowed to inflate.
The collapse of housing prices isn’t a crisis.

Foreclosures are not the problem, they are the solution.

The stock market is in the same boat. Believing that it’s a safe place for retirement may be foolish.

Until several generations accept/understand what was allowed to occur and that housing and the stock market are ponzi schemes, the charade will go on; artificially manipulating the market is the problem, not the solution.

Never buy a house EXPECTING it to go up. Appreciation should be a bonus….HLS

[HLS]

I grew up in So Cal.. I remember when Irvine was orange groves, when Temecula was Rancho California in the 1960’s with very few houses, before Magic Mountain was in Valencia, etc.

The area exploded in the 70’s-80’s because housing was AFFORDABLE.
It made sense to buy and real estate wasn’t looked at as a road to riches, buying overpriced McMansions with ARM’s and other toxic loans created by Wall Street that were going to explode.

You actually had to qualify for a loan, which you could get with as little as 5% dow, and prove your income.

This isn’t a “downturn”, it’s a return to sanity.

The denial about what happened and thinking that you need/have a “chance” to buy a house is laughable.

The REAL crisis was the market bubble that the govt allowed to inflate.
The collapse of housing prices isn’t a crisis.

Foreclosures are not the problem, they are the solution.

The stock market is in the same boat. Believing that it’s a safe place for retirement may be foolish.

Until several generations accept/understand what was allowed to occur and that housing and the stock market are ponzi schemes, the charade will go on; artificially manipulating the market is the problem, not the solution.

Never buy a house EXPECTING it to go up. Appreciation should be a bonus….HLS

[HLS]

I grew up in So Cal.. I remember when Irvine was orange groves, when Temecula was Rancho California in the 1960’s with very few houses, before Magic Mountain was in Valencia, etc.

The area exploded in the 70’s-80’s because housing was AFFORDABLE.
It made sense to buy and real estate wasn’t looked at as a road to riches, buying overpriced McMansions with ARM’s and other toxic loans created by Wall Street that were going to explode.

You actually had to qualify for a loan, which you could get with as little as 5% dow, and prove your income.

This isn’t a “downturn”, it’s a return to sanity.

The denial about what happened and thinking that you need/have a “chance” to buy a house is laughable.

The REAL crisis was the market bubble that the govt allowed to inflate.
The collapse of housing prices isn’t a crisis.

Foreclosures are not the problem, they are the solution.

The stock market is in the same boat. Believing that it’s a safe place for retirement may be foolish.

Until several generations accept/understand what was allowed to occur and that housing and the stock market are ponzi schemes, the charade will go on; artificially manipulating the market is the problem, not the solution.

Never buy a house EXPECTING it to go up. Appreciation should be a bonus….HLS

[svelte]

I totally agree with you BS.

I truly believe the govt will have no option but to let inflation creep up here shortly.

Couple that with the very low interest rates and the fact that housing has dropped 30-50% in most SD areas, and it probably means it is a good time to find a home you can be happy with for 10 to 20 years and buy with a 30 yr fixed.

This could be totally off base, but that is where I would put my money.

[svelte]

I totally agree with you BS.

I truly believe the govt will have no option but to let inflation creep up here shortly.

Couple that with the very low interest rates and the fact that housing has dropped 30-50% in most SD areas, and it probably means it is a good time to find a home you can be happy with for 10 to 20 years and buy with a 30 yr fixed.

This could be totally off base, but that is where I would put my money.

[svelte]

I totally agree with you BS.

I truly believe the govt will have no option but to let inflation creep up here shortly.

Couple that with the very low interest rates and the fact that housing has dropped 30-50% in most SD areas, and it probably means it is a good time to find a home you can be happy with for 10 to 20 years and buy with a 30 yr fixed.

This could be totally off base, but that is where I would put my money.

[svelte]

I totally agree with you BS.

I truly believe the govt will have no option but to let inflation creep up here shortly.

Couple that with the very low interest rates and the fact that housing has dropped 30-50% in most SD areas, and it probably means it is a good time to find a home you can be happy with for 10 to 20 years and buy with a 30 yr fixed.

This could be totally off base, but that is where I would put my money.

[Author]

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