Days on market vs. price expectation

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]I do say so. Here’s one example of what I’m talking about as far as lower-end condos still (not) selling below their 2000s peak…

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-140052722-6927_Amherst_3_San_Diego_CA_92115

Last sale, $308k in 2005. On market over 6 months for $237k.

I’m not looking for 60% off. I’m looking for 20-30% off property in blue-collar areas that I can rent without too much difficults.[/quote]

And what makes you think you’ll get an additional 40-50% off this point on?

No one is disagreeing with you that prices in some places won’t return back to peak. But you seem to be of the notion that these places are going to crater another 40-50% once interest rates go up. Ain’t gonna happen.

The bottom for these places were in the $120k-140 range BTW….Also, being the close proximity to sdsu…rents for $1300-1400/month….Well, this won’t probably won’t because it’s a piece of shit…There are much nicer places that are larger and costed less.

[spdrun]

You yourself seem to be predicting a slow decline. Are you just trolling at this point?

And the decline this time it seems will take a lot longer since most of the ones that were sketchly financed last time aren’t even active right now.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]You yourself seem to be predicting a slow decline …

And the decline this time it seems will take a lot longer since most of the ones that were sketchly financed last time aren’t even active right now.

[/quote]

In this particular hood. I think there will be a floor, simply because of the close proximity to SDSU. And rent is around $1400/month give and take $100/month. Maybe not this POS you picked, but others better that costed much less …

Also, I’m expecting the banks to relax lending standards in the future, so instead of buyers only being investors for things like this that typically buy with all cash (and hence not really affected by interest rate fluctuations imho), there will be people who right now can’t qualify to own will be able to. The fact that we are in the $200k ranges for these POS condos without the relaxed lending standards and less than stellar buyers is already surprising enough for me. I would have thought prices in this area would have stayed depressed much longer. At $200k, cash flowing them is already going to be slightly challenging.

[spdrun]

I’m not sure if we’re in the $200k range for those condos. Note that this unit is NOT selling at $237k or anything close to it.

Banks can’t relax lending standards more without Dodd-Frank going away, which isn’t happening for another 2-3 years at least. We’d probably need a GOP president for that, and the GOP is no friend of the GSEs and Mel “the skell” Watt. GOP control might lead to relaxation, but it might also lead to a more restrictive/privatized market as well.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]I’m not sure if we’re in the $200k range for those condos. Note that this unit is NOT selling at $237k or anything close to it.[/quote]

We are… Some of them that has closed in the $200k range. This one, again, is a POS and probably overpriced… Even if not, like I said. Most of these are investors held (probably). So if they were bought recently, they were purchased most likely with cash. Because owner occupancy in these areas most likely were <50% making traditional financing for investors not an option. Unless you were folks that cashed out refinanced another rental properties that were more owner occupied elsewhere to pay for ones here....

You can count on the banks to relax lending standards again. Because banks make more money off of subprime borrowers than they do off of me. And when they do that, that plays much more at the low end versus the high(er) end, imho.

[spdrun]

Not gonna work unless Dodd-Frank is changed, and that’s not going away any time soon. Debt-to-income is basically set in stone. Even the move to 3% down payments is a bit of a sham, since (a) they existed before 2013 anyway, and (b) down payment is limited by debt-to-income and appraisal for most people.

Interesting fact: 6927 Amherst #16 sold for $240,000 in late 2014. The unit I posted is sitting at $237,000 for much longer. They might be lucky to get $200,000 or $220,000. Seems that there might be a bit less demand for any junk that comes onto the market this year vs last. Funny, that.

There was a brief period in 2013-2014 where one could find a buyer for any turd that was thrown onto the market at an insane price. This period has passed and the herd has stopped stampeding.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Not gonna work unless Dodd-Frank is changed, and that’s not going away any time soon. Debt-to-income is basically set in stone. Even the move to 3% down payments is a bit of a sham, since (a) they existed before 2013 anyway, and (b) down payment is limited by debt-to-income and appraisal for most people.

Interesting fact: 6927 Amherst #16 sold for $240,000 in late 2014. The unit I posted is sitting at $237,000 for much longer. They might be lucky to get $200,000 or $220,000. Seems that there might be a bit less demand for any junk that comes onto the market this year vs last. Funny, that.

There was a brief period in 2013-2014 where one could find a buyer for any turd that was thrown onto the market at an insane price. This period has passed and the herd has stopped stampeding.[/quote]

Sure. If you say so. In that case. I dont see investors needing to sell( at a discount). I sure wasn’t counting on appreciation this quickly. As far as I am concerned. It is icing ont the cake. For practical purposes these condos have already changed hands from the weaker hands to the strong. That happened when these were in the $140k range.

[spdrun]

I’m posting numbers, you’re quacking “sure if you say so” repeatedly like an 4 year old in need of sleep. Got any more persuasive arguments?

I’m saying that there seem to be a number that DIDN’T change hands and gave one example. What makes $200k the right price vs $140k, BTW? $240,000 sure wasn’t right with the rent you quoted. That would represent about a 4% return, which is good for parts of Manhattan, not for a secondary part of San Diego.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]I’m posting numbers, you’re quacking “sure if you say so” repeatedly like an 4 year old in need of sleep. Got any more persuasive arguments?

I’m saying that there seem to be a number that DIDN’T change hands and gave one example. What makes $200k the right price vs $140k, BTW? $240,000 sure wasn’t right with the rent you quoted. That would represent about a 4% return, which is good for parts of Manhattan, not for a secondary part of San Diego.[/quote]

Sure, if you say so. Seems to me, the person isn’t in a hurry to sell, otherwise it would have been a short or REO a long time ago.

$200k price isn’t “right or wrong”. It’s what the market commands. Keeping trying to rationalize it…If it floats your boat.

[spdrun]

Regardless, the fact that it (and others like it) is sitting is reflective of pricing conditions vs last year. Is your repetition of “sure if you say so” indicative of drain bramage or just lack of creativity?

Maybe you should spend some time hanging out with people not just like you to improve your creative prospects.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Regardless, the fact that it (and others like it) is sitting is reflective of pricing conditions vs last year. Is your repetition of “sure if you say so” indicative of drain bramage or just lack of creativity?

Maybe you should spend some time hanging out with people not just like you to improve your creative prospects.[/quote]

Whatever floats your boat, chief. I’m enjoy wasting my time arguing with a brick, because I’m a brick too.

You’re right, I should spend more time with more creative and diverse people who are worldly and refined…Why do you think I’m spending so much time talking to you…on this blog?

So far, I learned a lot of what it takes to have a lot of pent up hate … I’ve also learned a lot about New Jersey 🙂

[spdrun]

Hate is the wrong word for what I feel. More obliviousness in this instance.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Hate is the wrong word for what I feel. More obliviousness in this instance.[/quote]

If you say so 🙂

[spdrun]

Hahahahaha. Can you just change your nick to ifyousayso already? 😉 kaisersayso would also work.

[fun4vnay2]

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