Days on market vs. price expectation

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]No one knows exactly when, but traders jumping from windows is a pretty good indication :)[/quote]

Somehow I think that would actually make you happy. Though I would say I didn’t hear many during the past two crashes.

[Coronita]

[quote=rockingtime]Or the people saying: Buy now or be priced out for ever :-)[/quote]

True. Too. But I think for folks that didn’t buy or didn’t buy what they really wanted. They are for practical purposes priced out right now. And the decline this time it seems will take a lot longer since most of the ones that were sketchly financed last time aren’t even active right now.

[spdrun]

They’re still active in the form of HELOCs and protections from the 2013 foreclosure law running out. Also, even a 10-20% decline will put a lot more people under water again. This will of course more likely happen at the lower to middle end of the market.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]They’re still active in the form of HELOCs and protections from the 2013 foreclosure law running out. Also, even a 10-20% decline will put a lot more people under water again. This will of course more likely happen at the lower to middle end of the market.[/quote]

Sure. If you say so.

[spdrun]

Fact is, you sarcastic little snit, starting to see more short sales list at the lower end. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

We’re talking about properties that are still 30% below what they borrowed. Read about what’s going on in NJ. Distress can be delayed, but eventually the sales will move forward.

[an]

We all know real estate are all local. I don’t see very may short sale around here. So your statement is false.

[an]

[quote=spdrun]They’re still active in the form of HELOCs and protections from the 2013 foreclosure law running out. Also, even a 10-20% decline will put a lot more people under water again. This will of course more likely happen at the lower to middle end of the market.[/quote]
Prove it. I’m sick and tire of hearing about this shadow inventory. Been hearing about it for almost 10 years. When are they coming and how many? Would it actually affect market price?

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=spdrun]They’re still active in the form of HELOCs and protections from the 2013 foreclosure law running out. Also, even a 10-20% decline will put a lot more people under water again. This will of course more likely happen at the lower to middle end of the market.[/quote]
Prove it. I’m sick and tire of hearing about this shadow inventory. Been hearing about it for almost 10 years. When are they coming and how many? Would it actually affect market price?[/quote]

At least in SoCal and Bay Area….
(crickets chirping…)

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Fact is, you sarcastic little snit, starting to see more short sales list at the lower end. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

We’re talking about properties that are still 30% below what they borrowed. Read about what’s going on in NJ. Distress can be delayed, but eventually the sales will move forward.[/quote]

I’ll have to take your word for it in what happens in NJ. I don’t care about what happens in NJ. I only care about what happens in CA and maybe Washington or Oregon. I have no desire to be in NJ or invest there.

So, if you say so, it must be true in NJ.

I like my tiny little island of non-diversity. Like I said, diversity is overrated.

[flyer]

I agree that there are probably quite a few of us who are not extremely effected by what the RE market does, especially if our kids are already established.

For people just entering the market, trying to move up, or trying to pick up more properties, etc., it’s a different story, so I can also see where sp is coming from, but it’s still difficult to compare the CA to the NJ market.

[njtosd]

[quote=spdrun]Fact is, you sarcastic little snit, starting to see more short sales list at the lower end. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

We’re talking about properties that are still 30% below what they borrowed. Read about what’s going on in NJ. Distress can be delayed, but eventually the sales will move forward.[/quote]

A quote from Asbury Park Press (1/12/15):

“New Jersey’s job growth rate in the last year ranks dead last in the continental United States. The U.S. has more than regained the nearly 9 million jobs that it lost during the recession that lasted from 2007 to 2009. New Jersey has recovered fewer than half of the lost 257,900 jobs, and its job growth is losing what little steam it had.”

http://www.app.com/story/news/investigations/watchdog/government/2014/10/17/nj-comeback-still-not-here/17371567/

NJ is in trouble – it has ignored its big money makers (actually, it seemed more like it decided to detest pharma) and this is the result. Can’t compare this to CA.

[gzz]

It is wrong to assume that a recession would cause San Diego house prices to fall.

Nominal home prices have only fallen twice in modern history in San Diego: 1990-1997 and 2007-2011. They went down in the mid 90’s despite the extremely strong national economy, and they went up quite rapidly during the 2001-03 recession. Finally, they were flat in the short but very intense 1982 recession (unemployment peaked at 10.8%, higher than our recent very long recession).

San Diego has a large number of well-paying jobs, is a favored place for the wealthy to vacation, have second homes, and retire, and has basically run out of nice locations to develop.

Historical valuation matrices don’t account for the fact that interest rates are extremely low. Rich put up a chart that does, and it shows that prices right now are extremely low taking this into account:

http://piggington.com/images/san_diego_housing_valuations_12_2013-4.png

I also think it is only a matter of time before mainland Chinese buyers start branching out from their favored UTC-centered buying habits into other areas of San Diego.

[spdrun]

Looking at lower-end condo prices, I’ve seen quite a few that sold for $50k in the mid 80s and went for half that in the early 90s. So at least in some segments, there was a drop from the 80s through the 90s as well.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Looking at lower-end condo prices, I’ve seen quite a few that sold for $50k in the mid 80s and went for half that in the early 90s. So at least in some segments, there was a drop from the 80s through the 90s as well.[/quote]

Sure…If you say so.

You aren’t going to get you 60+% off beach front property in SoCal sub $500k. Ain’t gonna happen. Keep dreaming.

[spdrun]

I do say so. Here’s one example of what I’m talking about as far as lower-end condos still (not) selling below their 2000s peak…

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-140052722-6927_Amherst_3_San_Diego_CA_92115

Last sale, $308k in 2005. On market over 6 months for $237k.

I’m not looking for 60% off. I’m looking for 20-30% off property in blue-collar areas that I can rent without too much difficulty.

[Author]

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