data for convincing the spouse to wait

[barnaby33]

Ok I’m not married, but is getting a husband more inline with your views an option? My girlfriend could talk till she is blue in the face and I wouldn’t commit money to a financial suicide pact.

Josh

[LookoutBelow]

No Marriage Counseling here, just an observation: If you two are on absolute both ends of the spectrum, maybe you shouldnt worry so much about investments per se, but spend more time and thought on compatability models and be brutally honest with yourselves.

Pounding a square peg into a round hole gets tiresome, boring and tedious.

Save your money, if making a “bad” investment is what could potentially save your relationship, one must wonder the merits of the relationship.

[powayseller]

Did you convince him to wait?

If it’s not too late to join the discussion: Ask him to read Rich’s Evidence of a California Housing Bubble and Risks of a Serious Home Price Decline. Both article on main piggington page. Those articles convince me to sell my house, that I had just built and lived in for a few months.

Why buy now? How can we be sure prices will drop only 10%? Could they drop 25%, 50%? Why not wait until prices start to turn up, so we know for sure the bottom has passed? Look for the leading indicators by working with a realtor. Media lags the market by one year. When DOM and inventory reduce, then the supply/demand imbalance is shifting and prices will go up. The answer is we do not know how far prices will drop, so what would be the reason to buy now, to catch a falling knife? Buying now is like gambling, because you are making a wild guess that prices will drop only 10%. What is his proof? I am interested in his logic. Perhaps he or you can post it.

[lamoneyguy]

Right, he has conceded that real estate prices may drop 10-15%. Where did he get that number from? What research has he done? What metrics did he use to determine FMV, or price resistance at 10-15% below current price levels?

I’m sure the answer is none. This is the sort of “out of thin air” number that people love to make up. I’m not even sure why they do it. Maybe it makes them feel smart that they have a projection. Maybe it helps justify a decision that they are making emotionally, but want to rationalize with something that sounds like logic.

Put him to the test on that one. If he can give you a GOOD answer, come back here and share with us. I’m sure we will all be interested… Then promptly give you thirty reasons why he is wrong.

[powayseller]

I hope their discussion stayed cool, and didn’t go off the emotional deep end, as did mine with my spouse when we discussed if we could have got $20K more for our house by holding out for a higher offer. That caused a huge fight. Somehow, homes buying and selling bring out the most basic emotions in people.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, financial decisions can be rough on relationships. And homes are extreme examples of those decisions. I’m going through the same thing. My SO wants to purchase a house right now, and I’m unable to sway her.

And I’ve already been slammed due to buying a condo 2 years ago that I can’t get rid of. I can only rent for a loss. 🙁

So far in my fairly short life I’ve had some trouble with making the correct decisions.

[mrquoi]

I appreciated all your advice and thought I’d provide an update. I decided to keep the spouse, who, apart from bubble beliefs, is a great guy.

Our discussion went well though he is still not convinced that prices will come down much. From his point of view, the bubble ‘pop’ has not really manifested in a visible way – he has colleagues who are looking to buy houses. The place we used to live in LA is still selling well. It’s hard to believe there is a bubble when most of the people around you don’t think there’s a bubble either.

The most convicing data for him was the cost to own vs renting. We would be able to squirrel away a significant amount of $ by renting for a while. And we can rent in a much nicer area than we could afford to buy.

Also, hugely in my favor is that we are enjoying being renters now. (Plus, looking at the houses we can afford is depressing.) We spend our weekends playing with our baby rather than hanging at Home Depot! Unfortunately we have to move mid-August. If I find a nice place it will significantly reduce the pressure to jump into a house. I’m glued to craigslit, but if anyone can recommend property manager/realtor/rental finder – we have dogs and the baby, which makes it tough – that’d be really wonderful.

So our discussion is ongoing. I did, however, go buy and show off the Wall Street Journal when it had the “for sale” article on the same day the SD Trib had a related story. Seeing it in print made a big impression, particularly coming from the WSJ.

kiki — I think you can deduct $2500/person if you earn less than $130K as a couple. But I’m not 100% sure.

unsolicited advice for other people in the same boat – it helps to set aside a time once a month or so to talk about housing/finance rather than letting it come up at emotional moment. It sounds dumb to have to make an appointment with pen, paper, calculator and spouse, but it works for us.

[sdrealtor]

post where you want to live and maybe someone out here can help you find a nice home to rent.

[FormerOwner]

Check out

http://www.rentclicks.com

Also, there are a lot of rentals listed in the MLS that a realtor can show you (realtors get a commission on the rent). Just don’t get talked into BUYING! Don’t drink the kool-aid!

[powayseller]

I ran into a couple looking for a rental yesterday, as they drove through my neighborhodd, and picked up the flyer of the House for Sale on my street. They told me that the rental market is so scarce, they can’t find anything at all, except houses which are very overpriced or very run-down or odd in some other way. Now their strategy is to call sellers, and approach them with the idea of renting their homes that are not selling.

hs told me she has been checking the rentals since last winter, and the # of rentals has falled by 2/3 in Poway and Scripps Ranch. hs, please correct my version of this if it’s not quite accurate.

[SD Realtor]

Definitely look for rentals on

http://www.craigslist.org, http://www.sdreader.com, http://www.signonsandiego.com.

Also any realtor can check the mls for rentals for you as well.

[hs]

I was searching in Scripps Ranch area for a rental house at the beginning of this year.The highest number was 32 for rental, I think, but last week I saw the number was 13.
The website is:http://sdhomessearch.signonsandiego.com/Rentals/Search
Good luck!

[powayseller]

This is indeed a reversal of past trends. The leasing agent who listed my current rental house told me the supply of rentals goes up in the summer, because that is the time when people move. She said I would have much more to choose from over the summer, and that January is a time of fewer rentals. So this summer should have 60 or 70 rentals in Scripps Ranch, not 13. Any comments from the realtors?

[sdrealtor]

I think the reason why this is happening is obvious to us all and its why I told you to lock into that lease for 2 years when you asked the question back in May. If memory serves me correct, everyone else on the board said rents would fall or stay stable and that all the unsold properties would quickly increase the rental inventory. I was seeing a real scarcity of quality SFR rentals available and strongly suggested locking yourself in. You made the right choice.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Good Rental Reference ….

American Heritage Properties has quality rentals. http://www.renthomes.com
As a property owner I’ve used them as my property manager off and on since 2000.

[Author]

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