data for convincing the spouse to wait

[mrquoi]

My significant other and I have very different views on the house bubble. His take is that prices might stay flat or go down 10%-15% or so, but that people who made risky loans will find a way to come up with the money to cover them and then prices will go up again. Plus the market has only been crazy for the past 5 years or so, so the majority of homeowners are pretty much unaffected by the bubble. He thinks the housing bubble is sounds like some wacky gloom and doom conspiracy theory. My view is more apocalyptic, I suppose from spending time cruising too many housing blogs.

So, he would like to buy a house in San Diego by the end of summer and considers any rent a total waste of money.

Anyhow, we’re going to talk about it tonight and I figure I should bring data since “I read it on the web” is pretty lame. So I was wondering what are the most compelling data points you’ve run across. Where are the most visually compelling graphics if such a thing exists? I’ve been showing him price drops on ziprealty, but I think he sees that as anecdotal rather than any sort of countrywide trend.

ps I’m just looking for data, not marriage counseling.

[Bugs]

Rich’s graphs and the data he derives them from tell a pretty convincing story. Make sure you point out that it’s not when the owners bought, but to what degree they are currently mortgaged that counts. There are lots of homes purchased prior to 2000 that are maxed out with 2004-2005 refinances at ARM terms. Take him down the ARM-reset discussion and see if he really thinks the potential for loss is only limited to 10% – 15%. We’re already at 10% losses in a couple neighborhoods in this region and this trend is only picking up speed. Foreclosures are increasing rapidly.

You should fully agree with and support his opinion that rents are a “waste of money” in a stable or increasing market, but that’s not where we are right now. We are in decline.

[LA_Renter]

Show him the invnentory build on bubbletracking.blogspot.com. Also look at the equation on patrick.net housing crash page;

“There are great tax advantages to owning.”
FALSE. It is now far cheaper to rent a house in the San Francisco Bay Area than it is to own that same house, even with the deductibility of mortgage interest figured in. It is possible to rent a good house for $1800/month. That same house would cost about $700,000. Assume 6% interest we can see that a buyer loses at least $4,936 per month by buying. Renting is a loss of course, but buying is a much bigger loss.
Renting:
Rent: $1,800
———————-
Monthly Loss: $1,800

Buying:
Property Tax: $486 ($729 per month at 1.25% before deduction, $486 lost after deduction.)
Interest: $2,333 ($3500 per month at 6% before deduction, $2333 lost after deduction.)
Other Costs: $450 (Insurance, maintenance, long commute, etc.)
Principal loss: $1,667 (Modest 3% yearly loss on $700,000. Reality will be much worse.)
———————-
Monthly Loss: $4,936

This is obviously for the Bay Area and interest rates are actually higher now. But do this equation before purchasing. Right now with inventory building home prices flattening and beginning to fall the finacial cost of owning is throwing away money. I am in your shoes and this data helps greatly.

[mrquoi]

He’s also concerned about the tax deduction, but since we have significant student loans (just finished grad school) I think we have plenty to write off already.

[ocrenter]

check out the foreclosure stats, Notice of Defaults are up 64% this year, but much worse than that is that the total Trustee’s sales this year is up 232% compared to last year. This fits with the $2 trillion mortgage reset everyone has been talking about for 2006-2007.

and yes, the inventory #’s on my blog.

a lot of high income folks are also waiting the bubble out despite the hit on the tax deduction. I know one physician couple with income over $300,000 combined that’s waiting it out in a leased home.

[lamoneyguy]

Do an apples to apples comparison. How much will it cost to buy a house in the area/size that you would consider? 600k? 700k? More? Next, how much is your current rent? Or, how much would rent be for the area/size you that you would consider? Then consider time frame. Is this where you want to be for the next 10-15 years? Both location and specific property? Because if prices are flat or down 10-15%, you may not have a choice in the matter.

I recently did this for my brother. He was considering buying in San Marcos. He told me he could find a nice rental for $1200, and comparable condo for $350k.

For the condo: after raiding his savings for 70k (20% down), his PI on a 30 yr fixed at 6.3% on $280k loan would be $1733. Add in insurance and taxes. Yes, there is a tax deduction. He does not currently itemize. The interest payments in the first year would total appx $17,500. He is in the 28% marginal Fed tax rate. After taking off the standard deduction, his tax savings are $3500. So, his tax savings are probably equal to the amount he would pay in property taxes, and declining each year. After paying for insurance, and the taxes cancelling each other out, he is looking at paying roughly $600-700 more per month. Also, by renting, the 70k could be left in an Emigrant Direct or HSBC online savings at 5%, earning $3500 per year. Buy the condo without raiding the savings, and all monthlies go up, plus you get either PMI or a piggyback loan.

Is renting a waste of money? Well, whom do you want to rent from, a landlord who is responsible for repairs, etc., or a bank? Renting from the bank will cost a lot more as detailed above. If he thinks prices will remain flat or go down 10-15%, you’re nuts to buy now. If you both think prices will still go up, then by all means dive right in.

[CAwireman]

This data might be convincing:

http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2006/06/06/columnists/rich_toscano/98toscano.txt

(Sorry for the format of the URL. I haven’t figured out how to creat a hot spot in this blog.)

This is Rich’s Part 2 of the Soft Landing articles in Voice of San Diego.

The compeling data to me is the history of the 2 prior real estate cycles and the inferences to be made as to what will happen with the current one.

Like you, my spouse (wife) wants to buy sooner rather than later, and I’m ready to wait 2 to 5 years. So, you can see that we have a bit of a delta in our home ownership desires.

Also, your point about not needing a marriage counselor gave me a chuckle – maybe we’ll see the emergence of the Personal-Finance/Marriage Advisor specialist profession…

Good luck with the discussion.

[masayako]

Buy this book or go to a local bookstore and read about it.

Sell Now! : The End of the Housing Bubble

I’m searching my next home on a daily basis. It’s either dropping in price or more inventories are coming into MLS daily. I’ve cash at hand to pay at least 20% down for a median price home but, by no mean, am I going to catch a dropping knife. All the housing fundamentals are insanely out of whack at this point; basically whoever buy will most like lose money in this few years.

So, I rent.

[masayako]

By the way, I convinced by wife not to buy because of the insanity housing price. At first, she had a hard time believing it but once she is convinced —> SHE LISTEN TO ME LIKE THE I’M A PROPHET IN THE OLD TESTAMENT.

[kiki]

my husband and i also have significant student loans from grad schools but i think you cannot deduct them if you hit a certain income level. Am i wrong? I am in the same boat as you are mrquoi , my husband also thinks houses will only drop 10% (although he does believe that now renting is more cost effective). His believe is that prices will never be affordable even for 2 MBAs so we better get out of here. We are actually trying to move out. Of course we need to find a job elsewhere first.

[speedingpullet]

I couldn’t agree with LaMoneyGuy more. I’m in the situation – for the first time in my adult life – where I’m in a position to buy rather than rent. I came into an inheritance a few weeks ago, and the money is already ‘burning a hole in my pocket’ as my old grannie used to say.

Hole-burning or not, I’m still not going to take the housebuying plunge until early 2007 at the earliest.

I’m in LA – where house prices over the last 5 years have meant that my husband and I – while making wages in the top 25 percentile – cannot afford to buy. We’ve been lucky in our rentals, and are now renting a lovely 2b/2b for 2000pcm.

Which, for that kind of money, we would be lucky to buy someone’s converted garage in Culver City…and we don’t have the hassle of maintenance, property taxes, closing costs etc, etc. Until the cost of buying comes down further, we are happy to pay a fraction of someone elses mortgage, with none of the problems.
Sure, the rent will go up, but only by about 4% per year. Which is far from the kinds of increases some homeowners are going to see in their ARMs over the next year or two.

And, no matter how they spin it, prices will come down, or at least stop going up.
Sorry to all those who get caught out by this, but with inventory rising (even for SFHs in LA) and DOM increasing , something has to give.

LA is more expensive to buy in than London(my home town), which always seems ridiculous to me, as there really is no land left at all in London, whereas in LA…

Why not save some money?

Americans save less money than anyone else in the Western World.
Put the money you would put down on a house into a tax-free interest account (like the HSBC one mentioned in LaMoneyGuy’s post…where, incedintally, my money is going until I can figure out what to do with it) and pay off both your Student Loans? Keep on putting the balance between renting and buying away in an account for a year or two, and wonder at the miracle of Compound Interest..
Build up some readies for the considerable expenses you will incurr when buying.

If you’re seriously thinking about a mortgage, then you will do yourselves a huge favour by not having prior debt of any kind. If you have a mortgage and credit card, car payments, student loans etc.. then its going to be really tough to pull off.

Anyway, I’m one to talk! Up until my Mom died and left me all her money I never had more than 10K in the bank at any one time. No matter how tempting it is to go out and buy!buy!buy! I’m going to save!save!save instead.

I hope your spouse can sit on his hands for a few more months until things get better 🙂

[anxvariety]

If he wants to throw money away.. try and at least convince him into a lease option.. that way you can limit your downside. By the time the least term is up, the strike price and market price will probably have seperated enough for the decision to be an easy one, that is.. keep renting.

People will probably freak that I’ve mentioned this.. but sometimes you can’t make the decisions you want, you have to compromise – I’m only suggesting this is compromise I’d consider if I were in your position.

Lease option from Wiki:

A lease purchase contract (also known as Lease Option) is a legal document that combines a basic lease contract with an option-to-purchase contract. The tenant/buyer pays to the landlord/seller a non-refundable option deposit that is applied to the purchase price of the home. The tenant/buyer then pays to the landlord/seller a sum that is typical to the rental amount usually on a monthly basis. A portion of that monthly payment is then applied to the purchase price of the home. During, or at the end of the lease period, the tenant/buyer has exclusive right to buy the home under the terms to which both parties have previously agreed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lease_option

Key part is “the tenant/buyer has the exclusive right” but is not required to purchase the home under the terms previously agreed. If you do not purchase the home, you lose your deposit.. so negotiating a reasonable deposit is important to whether this will be a good deal for you.

Regarding the tax part of your question, here’s another Wiki link:

“This type of lease can be structured so that the lessee can take the tax benefits as if he were the home owner.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_Real_Estate_Investing

[speedingpullet]

Sorry, my last post sounds just like marriage counselling!

Rather than using links and data from elsewhere, why don’t you just do what my husband and I have been doing for the last 6 years – compare the cost of owning against the cost of renting? its become something of a family pasttime every time the housing market shifts…paper and caluculators fly…and using our own data just makes it all more real.

Pick a house you like the look of online and figure out how much you’ll need to buy it. Once you have a monthly sum, then compare it to the monthly rental on a similar place.
Unless you’re planning on renting a mansion, then I’ll put money on the rental being less costly in the short-term than buying, even figuring in annual rent increases for a year or two.

We certanly don’t want to rent forever, but until the buy/rent ratio comes down to more sensible levels, I’m happy to rent.

[sdduuuude]

I think what your spouse does not realize is how bad a 10 to 15% reduction is, or how long it takes.

The last housing crash was about 10 to 15% down and it was awful. Many people think housing prices in the 90s really crashed, like the stock market, which wasn’t the case. Median price was only down 10 or 15% and people just got killed.

10% of a $500,000 home is $50,000.
Does he make $50,000 in a year?
He is trying to tell you that you stand to lose $50,000 and that is OK? A year’s salary down the drain, but renting is a waste of money?

Amazing to me that anyone could think “it will go down 15% so I’m gonna buy.” Amazing. Tell him to listen to himself.

Also, consider the amount of time it takes for the market to cycle down 15%, then back up. It could take several years for the market to go down and several more for it to come up – call it 7 to 12 years. That is a long time to not make any appreciation.

Plus, you have to be certain that life will not deal you cards which force you to sell when the market is at its worst.

Also, keep in mind if it goes down 15%, it has to come up 17.6% to be even.

Finally – very compelling is the annual pattern of sales from year to year. Always, there are significant sales in the spring and summer, then buyers dry up until next spring. Better to buy later in the year or in January, when the market is really hurting.

[PD]

I was living in OC during the early 1990s. My townhouse in Aliso Viejo went from 175,000 to 130,000. That same 25% reduction (or more) could easily happen here.

[Author]

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