Coronavirus/Economy/Stock Market

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=svelte]Looking at China, even after restrictions are lifted things don’t return to “normal”.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/opinions/china-coronavirus-end-quarantine-devika-koppikar-opinion/index.html

I bet similar things happen here. People will be very leery of each other…there will still be a large number of people who haven’t had CV and are afraid of getting it…that will change the behavior of public places such as restaurants, gyms, bars, movies.

I bet things don’t totally return to “normal” for at least a couple of years.[/quote]

Yeah, that’s why I expect a deep recession on the level of 2008 or worse

Because of our health care system, the mechanics to get people tested and vaccinated have not been worked out yet. That will require another emergency bill by Congress.

As long as the virus is floating around, killing people, we cannot return to normal. Of course, the new normal will be different.

[FlyerInHi]

This is only the beginning. The virus and shutdown will have wide ranging effects.

San Diego-area cities consider service cuts, layoffs after pandemic causes sharp drops in tax revenue

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2020-04-05/sharp-drops-in-tax-revenue-during-pandemic-forcing-local-cities-to-consider-service-cuts-layoffs

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Plunge protection team may actually become a real thing.

“Should market conditions deteriorate, the Federal Reserve could venture into the stock market, several market analysts and economists said.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/what-it-would-take-for-the-fed-to-start-buying-stocks-during-coronavirus-crisis.html%5B/quote%5D

Seems the FED made this a real thing today.

[ltsddd]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=The-Shoveler]Plunge protection team may actually become a real thing.

“Should market conditions deteriorate, the Federal Reserve could venture into the stock market, several market analysts and economists said.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/what-it-would-take-for-the-fed-to-start-buying-stocks-during-coronavirus-crisis.html%5B/quote%5D

Seems the FED made this a real thing today.[/quote]

IIRC, the gov’t did quite well with their investment with the banks and the auto industry during the 2007-08 financial melt down (TARP). I think it’ll do well this time around also.

[FlyerInHi]

“quite well” is relative. Shouldn’t the financial savior get the controlling shares? That’s how it works in the private sector.

[ltsddd]

[quote=FlyerInHi]“quite well” is relative. Shouldn’t the financial savior get the controlling shares? That’s how it works in the private sector.[/quote]

State-owned like China? Fvck that.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=ltsddd][quote=FlyerInHi]“quite well” is relative. Shouldn’t the financial savior get the controlling shares? That’s how it works in the private sector.[/quote]

State-owned like China? Fvck that.[/quote]

Why the revulsion? Don’t we complain that SOEs give the chinese an unfair advantage?

[ltsddd]

If you meant state-sponsored IP thievery to give the Chinese an unfair advantage then yes. As for how effective and efficient, or lack thereof, SOEs are; well, there are plenty books written about it.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=ltsddd]If you meant state-sponsored IP thievery to give the Chinese an unfair advantage then yes. As for how effective and efficient, or lack thereof, SOEs are; well, there are plenty books written about it.[/quote]

The literature says it’s all about management, not the ownership of the shares. Some countries have private airports, water authorities and ports, ours are local government owned. Singapore has wealth funds that invest directly in startups.

If we, the people, save a company but don’t get ownership, then we’re being ripped off.

[ltsddd]

Just take a look at Amtrak & the USPS and then you tell me how well SOEs are working out.

The gov’t did get ownership of the bailed out companies via stocks. That’s how it was with TARP.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=ltsddd]Just take a look at Amtrak & the USPS and then you tell me how well SOEs are working out.

The gov’t did get ownership of the bailed out companies via stocks. That’s how it was with TARP.[/quote]

What if we had a SOE where the S doesnt actively try to make the E fail.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-04-04/congress-not-amazon-messed-up-the-u-s-postal-service

[ltsddd]

The S should just simply own the E (wholly or partly) but try not to manage it.

Our gov’t should change the way it does business with startups that benefit from our taxes. Many publicly traded companies got their start via grants, subsidies and R&D effort from the gov’t (Google, Tesla, etc…). The gov’t should get something in return for it a la a venture capitalist does. We take a chance on your company and in return you’ll give us x% of shares/ownership of your company.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=ltsddd]The S should just simply own the E (wholly or partly) but try not to manage it.
[/quote]

So it’s management, not the ownership structure. It’s implementation, not ideology.

To be fair, China is no different than many European countries in terms of their SOEs. They just have better management and larger economies of scale.

[42nate1]

Good news is my tenants paid this month. We will see what happens in May.

I had a property scheduled to be available April 1st. Was nervous about how long it would be available. It’s located in Rancho Bernardo (San Diego). I listed it for rent on Zillow one week prior. Interest was surprisingly strong. I had more than 40 people requesting to see it & 5 rental applications, sight unseen. I did an open house on 4/7 after cleaning & minor repairs. There was foot traffic much of the day, and I had three strong candidates by the end of the day. We executed a lease with the family we liked the most.

Common comments were that there wasn’t much inventory & anything nice got rented immediately.

For the sake of the economy, we have to begin getting back to work. More than 16 million unemployed in 3 weeks. The country can sustain a month or two, but small businesses will permanently close if longer.

My experience indicates the rental market is fine now. Those getting the stimulus check buys another month. If we are still here in June, the problems will get much worse.

[outtamojo]

Is there going to be a meat shortage soon?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meatpacking-idUSKCN21U0O7

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