Coronavirus/Economy/Stock Market

[FlyerInHi]

Yeah…. but will you be taking your family on a cruise, Sea World, or Disneyland anytime soon?
Corporate travel won’t resume anytime soon and maybe the future is teleconference.
Lots of events canceled for the rest of the year.
I have family who, at a loss, canceled a cruise to the Mediterranean for thanksgiving. Imagine a whole bunch of old people getting covid19 together.

I have a friend in software who said working from home is a lot better. No needed to deal with useless work interaction.

[outtamojo]

[quote=svelte]I figure the bottom will be sometime between Monday (reacting to Trumps extension of distancing until end of April) and the middle of April (when I think deaths in the US should peak).

As early as late April, I’m hoping we start to see a recovery though it will probably not be robust and will take a long time to get anywhere close to where we were before this hit…certainly not this year. Too much of a mess to mop up first.[/quote]

This may last longer than we think because of idiots from Liberty University and spring breakers.

[The-Shoveler]

Plunge protection team may actually become a real thing.

“Should market conditions deteriorate, the Federal Reserve could venture into the stock market, several market analysts and economists said.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/what-it-would-take-for-the-fed-to-start-buying-stocks-during-coronavirus-crisis.html

[sdduuuude]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=svelte]I figure the bottom will be sometime between Monday (reacting to Trumps extension of distancing until end of April) and the middle of April (when I think deaths in the US should peak).

As early as late April, I’m hoping we start to see a recovery though it will probably not be robust and will take a long time to get anywhere close to where we were before this hit…certainly not this year. Too much of a mess to mop up first.[/quote]

This may last longer than we think because of idiots from Liberty University and spring breakers.[/quote]

Doesn’t
“Flattening the curve” = “last longer”

The spring breakers may shorten it, actually.

[svelte]

[quote=sdduuuude]

Doesn’t
“Flattening the curve” = “last longer”

The spring breakers may shorten it, actually.[/quote]

I agree. We flattened and lengthened it in order to keep the hospitals from overflowing.

Some on here counter that the warm weather is going to bring it to an end – I’m sure that will help a bit by shortening the time the virus can live on surfaces, but I don’t think it will end it. But it’s not my field of expertise.

[FlyerInHi]

Wow, 40% of tenants not paying. Is that the future for California?

40% of N.Y. Tenants May Not Pay Rent This Month. What Happens Then?
Many unemployed tenants won’t be able to pay April rent. There will be a domino effect on landlords, real estate industry officials said.

[Gunslinger]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Wow, 40% of tenants not paying. Is that the future for California?

40% of N.Y. Tenants May Not Pay Rent This Month. What Happens Then?
Many unemployed tenants won’t be able to pay April rent. There will be a domino effect on landlords, real estate industry officials said.

Thanks to that bear girl its not in our future. Following the lead of our great president we purchased units that receive rent subsidies. Wire transfer just hit!

This too shall pass! He will lead us through these dark times.

Be angry and do not sin; do not let the sun go down on your anger, and give no opportunity to the devil. Let the thief no longer steal, but rather let him labor, doing honest work with his own hands, so that he may have something to share with anyone in need.

Ephesians 4:26

[FlyerInHi]

If your the tenants don’t pay you their shares of the rents, all you have are the Section 8 payments. Hope you purchased low enough, without too much leverage so you don’t fall into negative cash flow.

[Gunslinger]

[quote=FlyerInHi]If your the tenants don’t pay you their shares of the rents, all you have are the Section 8 payments. Hope you purchased low enough, without too much leverage so you don’t fall into negative cash flow.[/quote]

Thank you for your kind words sir. The brood and I prospered in fracking ventures whilst the gettin was good. Thank goodness that silly green energy nonsense will go away now that oil has imploded. We also obtained some forgivable SBA redevelopment loans with tax credits by providing much needed affordable housing.

I wish you well also and hope you found yourself a nice young man to settle down with.

For anyone who does not love his brother, whom he has seen, cannot love God, whom he has not seen.

John 4:21

[FlyerInHi]

The oil implosion is really bad for US energy producers.

[Gunslinger]

Never been cheaper to fill up the Escalade! With our President finally rolling back those assanine Obama era fuel standards we can get to back to driving fun.

[FlyerInHi]

I don’t understand what’s so fun about driving that monstrosity. A Tesla is more fun to drive for sure. Plus you can charge it at home and not worry about getting coronavirus at the gas station.

[Rich Toscano]

Gunslinger blocked for flagrant trolling. Don’t be a troll, it’s not really clever or funny.

[svelte]

Using the 1918 Spanish Flu as a data point, let’s see what history has to show us. As I’ve stated before, it is a little hard to tell because WW1 was happening at the same time. See attached stock market graph.

The US entering WW1 definitely had a negative impact on the stock market. However, the stock market continued downward after the war ended in November 1918.

Did it continue downward because of the Spanish Flu? It is unclear. Notice how when WW2 ended, there was also a short blip downward, perhaps due to knowing absorbing the troops back into the economy would be challenging. It could be the same thought process used in Nov 1918 after WW1. Or it could be that it continued downward because of the Spanish Flu.

Not often mentioned is the depression of 1920-1921. The current line of thinking is that was caused by the adjustments from a wartime to peacetime economy, labor union strife, and changes to monetary policy.

It is difficult to extract from this what will happen to the stock market due to COVID-19.

[img_assist|nid=27020|title=Stock Market 1910-1950|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

[svelte]

Looking at China, even after restrictions are lifted things don’t return to “normal”.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/opinions/china-coronavirus-end-quarantine-devika-koppikar-opinion/index.html

I bet similar things happen here. People will be very leery of each other…there will still be a large number of people who haven’t had CV and are afraid of getting it…that will change the behavior of public places such as restaurants, gyms, bars, movies.

I bet things don’t totally return to “normal” for at least a couple of years.

[Author]

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