Case of Case Shiller calls the bottom

[LA_Renter]

“Case is speaking of the national aggregate market.
That is very different scenario than SD, OC, LA, and Miami.”

Bingo, many markets did not see near the appreciation that these areas did. Also keep in mind previous housing downturns were caused by recessions that were the result of some external force outside of housing. This time housing is the CAUSE of the current gloom and really we have just now entered into a recession, we have seen what happens when prices become completely disconnected from fundamentals but we haven’t felt the FULL impact of the economic downturn on housing yet.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

While it is true that Case is speaking about the market in general, that still does not translate into the avg. buyers mind in this area. Many people are antsy and not as savvy as the avg. pigg. They see low rates and some media attention that the market has bottomed out (i.e. Tonight’s Nightly Biz report on PBS) and they start asking parents to borrow the 50k deposit needed to get a place. Is it not true that you are hearing a lot more people talk about getting into the market. I know I am. For me thats a good thing, I don’t deny that I am all for a prolonged flat period or even an increase, but I understand that being a bummer for those who have been waiting for a larger drop.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

While it is true that Case is speaking about the market in general, that still does not translate into the avg. buyers mind in this area. Many people are antsy and not as savvy as the avg. pigg. They see low rates and some media attention that the market has bottomed out (i.e. Tonight’s Nightly Biz report on PBS) and they start asking parents to borrow the 50k deposit needed to get a place. Is it not true that you are hearing a lot more people talk about getting into the market. I know I am. For me thats a good thing, I don’t deny that I am all for a prolonged flat period or even an increase, but I understand that being a bummer for those who have been waiting for a larger drop.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

While it is true that Case is speaking about the market in general, that still does not translate into the avg. buyers mind in this area. Many people are antsy and not as savvy as the avg. pigg. They see low rates and some media attention that the market has bottomed out (i.e. Tonight’s Nightly Biz report on PBS) and they start asking parents to borrow the 50k deposit needed to get a place. Is it not true that you are hearing a lot more people talk about getting into the market. I know I am. For me thats a good thing, I don’t deny that I am all for a prolonged flat period or even an increase, but I understand that being a bummer for those who have been waiting for a larger drop.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

While it is true that Case is speaking about the market in general, that still does not translate into the avg. buyers mind in this area. Many people are antsy and not as savvy as the avg. pigg. They see low rates and some media attention that the market has bottomed out (i.e. Tonight’s Nightly Biz report on PBS) and they start asking parents to borrow the 50k deposit needed to get a place. Is it not true that you are hearing a lot more people talk about getting into the market. I know I am. For me thats a good thing, I don’t deny that I am all for a prolonged flat period or even an increase, but I understand that being a bummer for those who have been waiting for a larger drop.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

While it is true that Case is speaking about the market in general, that still does not translate into the avg. buyers mind in this area. Many people are antsy and not as savvy as the avg. pigg. They see low rates and some media attention that the market has bottomed out (i.e. Tonight’s Nightly Biz report on PBS) and they start asking parents to borrow the 50k deposit needed to get a place. Is it not true that you are hearing a lot more people talk about getting into the market. I know I am. For me thats a good thing, I don’t deny that I am all for a prolonged flat period or even an increase, but I understand that being a bummer for those who have been waiting for a larger drop.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[LA_Renter]

One of these days the bottom callers will be right. This does not happen to be that day. Did anybody read a post showing headlines in the early to mid 90’s describing the downturn. I think the media pointed out every Spring that there was an increase in activity and signs a bottom was being put in only to be followed by more malaise. We will see many false starts. There is cash on the sidelines but it does not remotely begin to compare to the cash provided by lax lending available to anybody with a pulse and in many cases actual dead people earlier this decade.

[LA_Renter]

One of these days the bottom callers will be right. This does not happen to be that day. Did anybody read a post showing headlines in the early to mid 90’s describing the downturn. I think the media pointed out every Spring that there was an increase in activity and signs a bottom was being put in only to be followed by more malaise. We will see many false starts. There is cash on the sidelines but it does not remotely begin to compare to the cash provided by lax lending available to anybody with a pulse and in many cases actual dead people earlier this decade.

[LA_Renter]

One of these days the bottom callers will be right. This does not happen to be that day. Did anybody read a post showing headlines in the early to mid 90’s describing the downturn. I think the media pointed out every Spring that there was an increase in activity and signs a bottom was being put in only to be followed by more malaise. We will see many false starts. There is cash on the sidelines but it does not remotely begin to compare to the cash provided by lax lending available to anybody with a pulse and in many cases actual dead people earlier this decade.

[LA_Renter]

One of these days the bottom callers will be right. This does not happen to be that day. Did anybody read a post showing headlines in the early to mid 90’s describing the downturn. I think the media pointed out every Spring that there was an increase in activity and signs a bottom was being put in only to be followed by more malaise. We will see many false starts. There is cash on the sidelines but it does not remotely begin to compare to the cash provided by lax lending available to anybody with a pulse and in many cases actual dead people earlier this decade.

[Author]

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