Case of Case Shiller calls the bottom

[Daniel]

I’ve said this before, and I’ll probably have to say it many more times this year: “bottom” means different things to different people. I’m willing to bet that the folks on this site concern themselves with the “price bottom”, and couldn’t care less about the bottom in residential investment, new home construction, new home sales, etc. On the other hand, economists take the opposing view: if construction and sales stabilize, that’s what matters most to the economy. Prices sliding a couple more years are not that big of a deal.

So, I think that we’ll hear bottom calls starting this year (2008 is likely to be the worst year for residential investment, and 2009 should be better, imho) all the way to 2010 and beyond, when prices will probably bottom out. As long as we’re talking about different things, we can all be right 🙂

[jpinpb]

Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V

[jpinpb]

Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V

[jpinpb]

Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V

[jpinpb]

Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V

[jpinpb]

Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V

[gdcox]

To pick up where that last thread left off

‘Sdduuuude nailed
Submitted by CA renter on May 7, 2008 – 10:53pm.

Sdduuuude nailed it.

Investments certainly look good in some areas right now, based on inflated rents. But lots of inventory is being kept off the market by banks and FBs trying to hold on until “the market gets better.” What happens to rents and prices when that inventory is finally released onto the market?

A recession/depression is still not being priced in, nor is a decrease in rent or further decay in the lower-end neighborhoods. Crime will rise, rents will fall; and what seems like a good deal today will probably look foolish next year and the year after that.

I still stand by my 2012 bottom, at best. Time will tell.’

————————-

Both views can be right in the sense that if you look at what Case is talking about, his focus seems to be on the building industry and he seems to be calling the bottom for new home construction. You can have stabilisation of national new home construction co-exist with nationally measured declining and then stabilizing prices. Though there is so much inventory to get though, some areas are not badly hit by the downturn. What case say does not stop San Diego , Sacremento etc going their own way.

[gdcox]

To pick up where that last thread left off

‘Sdduuuude nailed
Submitted by CA renter on May 7, 2008 – 10:53pm.

Sdduuuude nailed it.

Investments certainly look good in some areas right now, based on inflated rents. But lots of inventory is being kept off the market by banks and FBs trying to hold on until “the market gets better.” What happens to rents and prices when that inventory is finally released onto the market?

A recession/depression is still not being priced in, nor is a decrease in rent or further decay in the lower-end neighborhoods. Crime will rise, rents will fall; and what seems like a good deal today will probably look foolish next year and the year after that.

I still stand by my 2012 bottom, at best. Time will tell.’

————————-

Both views can be right in the sense that if you look at what Case is talking about, his focus seems to be on the building industry and he seems to be calling the bottom for new home construction. You can have stabilisation of national new home construction co-exist with nationally measured declining and then stabilizing prices. Though there is so much inventory to get though, some areas are not badly hit by the downturn. What case say does not stop San Diego , Sacremento etc going their own way.

[gdcox]

To pick up where that last thread left off

‘Sdduuuude nailed
Submitted by CA renter on May 7, 2008 – 10:53pm.

Sdduuuude nailed it.

Investments certainly look good in some areas right now, based on inflated rents. But lots of inventory is being kept off the market by banks and FBs trying to hold on until “the market gets better.” What happens to rents and prices when that inventory is finally released onto the market?

A recession/depression is still not being priced in, nor is a decrease in rent or further decay in the lower-end neighborhoods. Crime will rise, rents will fall; and what seems like a good deal today will probably look foolish next year and the year after that.

I still stand by my 2012 bottom, at best. Time will tell.’

————————-

Both views can be right in the sense that if you look at what Case is talking about, his focus seems to be on the building industry and he seems to be calling the bottom for new home construction. You can have stabilisation of national new home construction co-exist with nationally measured declining and then stabilizing prices. Though there is so much inventory to get though, some areas are not badly hit by the downturn. What case say does not stop San Diego , Sacremento etc going their own way.

[gdcox]

To pick up where that last thread left off

‘Sdduuuude nailed
Submitted by CA renter on May 7, 2008 – 10:53pm.

Sdduuuude nailed it.

Investments certainly look good in some areas right now, based on inflated rents. But lots of inventory is being kept off the market by banks and FBs trying to hold on until “the market gets better.” What happens to rents and prices when that inventory is finally released onto the market?

A recession/depression is still not being priced in, nor is a decrease in rent or further decay in the lower-end neighborhoods. Crime will rise, rents will fall; and what seems like a good deal today will probably look foolish next year and the year after that.

I still stand by my 2012 bottom, at best. Time will tell.’

————————-

Both views can be right in the sense that if you look at what Case is talking about, his focus seems to be on the building industry and he seems to be calling the bottom for new home construction. You can have stabilisation of national new home construction co-exist with nationally measured declining and then stabilizing prices. Though there is so much inventory to get though, some areas are not badly hit by the downturn. What case say does not stop San Diego , Sacremento etc going their own way.

[gdcox]

To pick up where that last thread left off

‘Sdduuuude nailed
Submitted by CA renter on May 7, 2008 – 10:53pm.

Sdduuuude nailed it.

Investments certainly look good in some areas right now, based on inflated rents. But lots of inventory is being kept off the market by banks and FBs trying to hold on until “the market gets better.” What happens to rents and prices when that inventory is finally released onto the market?

A recession/depression is still not being priced in, nor is a decrease in rent or further decay in the lower-end neighborhoods. Crime will rise, rents will fall; and what seems like a good deal today will probably look foolish next year and the year after that.

I still stand by my 2012 bottom, at best. Time will tell.’

————————-

Both views can be right in the sense that if you look at what Case is talking about, his focus seems to be on the building industry and he seems to be calling the bottom for new home construction. You can have stabilisation of national new home construction co-exist with nationally measured declining and then stabilizing prices. Though there is so much inventory to get though, some areas are not badly hit by the downturn. What case say does not stop San Diego , Sacremento etc going their own way.

[surveyor]

chart

[img_assist|nid=7562|title=Housing starts|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]

I believe the chart in question is here. And there seem to be a lot of “V”‘s there.

Oh, by the way, I’ve been seeing a more buying activity on the larger scale. Some large investment groups buying up almost finished projects in Riverside County for good discounts. A lot of salivating and $$ signs in eyes by a few people. I know of at least two purchases and they are looking for more.

[surveyor]

chart

[img_assist|nid=7562|title=Housing starts|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]

I believe the chart in question is here. And there seem to be a lot of “V”‘s there.

Oh, by the way, I’ve been seeing a more buying activity on the larger scale. Some large investment groups buying up almost finished projects in Riverside County for good discounts. A lot of salivating and $$ signs in eyes by a few people. I know of at least two purchases and they are looking for more.

[surveyor]

chart

[img_assist|nid=7562|title=Housing starts|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]

I believe the chart in question is here. And there seem to be a lot of “V”‘s there.

Oh, by the way, I’ve been seeing a more buying activity on the larger scale. Some large investment groups buying up almost finished projects in Riverside County for good discounts. A lot of salivating and $$ signs in eyes by a few people. I know of at least two purchases and they are looking for more.

[surveyor]

chart

[img_assist|nid=7562|title=Housing starts|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]

I believe the chart in question is here. And there seem to be a lot of “V”‘s there.

Oh, by the way, I’ve been seeing a more buying activity on the larger scale. Some large investment groups buying up almost finished projects in Riverside County for good discounts. A lot of salivating and $$ signs in eyes by a few people. I know of at least two purchases and they are looking for more.

[Author]

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