Carmel Valley Monitor

[jyurasek02]

I like how you are tracking this area. It is a very nice area, and I would strongly consider buying. However, I am trying to understand how to use this data to understand the changing markets. I know a lot has to do with the supply and demand of the area, and the volume and sales. Rustico had stated in another thread to use the listing to pending sales ratio and how they change. How can apply this on a week by week basis? Don’t I need a cumlative number to compare the total listings to total transactions?

He also stated that I understand the distress of an area and the cost of owning vs. renting. I get the owning vs. renting analysis a bit, but the distress I am little confused on. Is this simply the NOT’s and REO’s? Let me know how that can factor into the analysis.

[jyurasek02]

I like how you are tracking this area. It is a very nice area, and I would strongly consider buying. However, I am trying to understand how to use this data to understand the changing markets. I know a lot has to do with the supply and demand of the area, and the volume and sales. Rustico had stated in another thread to use the listing to pending sales ratio and how they change. How can apply this on a week by week basis? Don’t I need a cumlative number to compare the total listings to total transactions?

He also stated that I understand the distress of an area and the cost of owning vs. renting. I get the owning vs. renting analysis a bit, but the distress I am little confused on. Is this simply the NOT’s and REO’s? Let me know how that can factor into the analysis.

[jyurasek02]

I like how you are tracking this area. It is a very nice area, and I would strongly consider buying. However, I am trying to understand how to use this data to understand the changing markets. I know a lot has to do with the supply and demand of the area, and the volume and sales. Rustico had stated in another thread to use the listing to pending sales ratio and how they change. How can apply this on a week by week basis? Don’t I need a cumlative number to compare the total listings to total transactions?

He also stated that I understand the distress of an area and the cost of owning vs. renting. I get the owning vs. renting analysis a bit, but the distress I am little confused on. Is this simply the NOT’s and REO’s? Let me know how that can factor into the analysis.

[jyurasek02]

I like how you are tracking this area. It is a very nice area, and I would strongly consider buying. However, I am trying to understand how to use this data to understand the changing markets. I know a lot has to do with the supply and demand of the area, and the volume and sales. Rustico had stated in another thread to use the listing to pending sales ratio and how they change. How can apply this on a week by week basis? Don’t I need a cumlative number to compare the total listings to total transactions?

He also stated that I understand the distress of an area and the cost of owning vs. renting. I get the owning vs. renting analysis a bit, but the distress I am little confused on. Is this simply the NOT’s and REO’s? Let me know how that can factor into the analysis.

[SD Realtor]

jyu –

This bellweather that sdrealtor tracks is really effective but it becomes even more useful if you take a cumulative look at it. For instance if you track the short sale thread that sdrealtor maintains, another poster artifact as taken the raw data and plots it. If you really want to gain insight into the market then taking all of the weekly data points and plotting them will help you get a visual portrayal of the market in CV that cannot be evaluated looking at single data points.

The active/pending ratio is a statistic that can give you insight into the strength of the submarket at any given time. So if there are 150 active listings and 30 pending in a given month, and then 160 active listings and 20 pendings in a different month, the results are pretty obvious. The active/pending ratio “may help” to filter out seasonal fluctuations that are omnipresent in real estate sales (there are ALWAYS more actives in the spring then in the fall). However does the active/pending ratio change in the spring verses the fall? See what I am saying?

Now as far as distress go, one school of thought is that more desireable areas have less distressed sellers. Personally I think this is true for the most part HOWEVER I think there is a strong variance within desireable areas with regard to distressed sellers. My bias is that newer desireable areas will have more distressed sellers then more established desireable areas. With regards to CV yes your assumption was are distressed properties short sales, REO or NOTs? Yes but they also may consist of people who must move due to divorce, relocation, losing jobs, etc. How can you factor that into the analysis? Well one thing you can do is ask your realtor to look for comments in the active listings such as short, bank owned, REO, etc and come up with a ratio of how many distressed active listings there are verses non distressed. If you do that for a few weeks or months you can see if the ratio starts to swing. It is not alot different then sdrealtors short sale monitor but you would do it for that particular zip code. Then you can see if that zip code is indeed growing in distress ratio.

As always, hope this helps.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

jyu –

This bellweather that sdrealtor tracks is really effective but it becomes even more useful if you take a cumulative look at it. For instance if you track the short sale thread that sdrealtor maintains, another poster artifact as taken the raw data and plots it. If you really want to gain insight into the market then taking all of the weekly data points and plotting them will help you get a visual portrayal of the market in CV that cannot be evaluated looking at single data points.

The active/pending ratio is a statistic that can give you insight into the strength of the submarket at any given time. So if there are 150 active listings and 30 pending in a given month, and then 160 active listings and 20 pendings in a different month, the results are pretty obvious. The active/pending ratio “may help” to filter out seasonal fluctuations that are omnipresent in real estate sales (there are ALWAYS more actives in the spring then in the fall). However does the active/pending ratio change in the spring verses the fall? See what I am saying?

Now as far as distress go, one school of thought is that more desireable areas have less distressed sellers. Personally I think this is true for the most part HOWEVER I think there is a strong variance within desireable areas with regard to distressed sellers. My bias is that newer desireable areas will have more distressed sellers then more established desireable areas. With regards to CV yes your assumption was are distressed properties short sales, REO or NOTs? Yes but they also may consist of people who must move due to divorce, relocation, losing jobs, etc. How can you factor that into the analysis? Well one thing you can do is ask your realtor to look for comments in the active listings such as short, bank owned, REO, etc and come up with a ratio of how many distressed active listings there are verses non distressed. If you do that for a few weeks or months you can see if the ratio starts to swing. It is not alot different then sdrealtors short sale monitor but you would do it for that particular zip code. Then you can see if that zip code is indeed growing in distress ratio.

As always, hope this helps.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

jyu –

This bellweather that sdrealtor tracks is really effective but it becomes even more useful if you take a cumulative look at it. For instance if you track the short sale thread that sdrealtor maintains, another poster artifact as taken the raw data and plots it. If you really want to gain insight into the market then taking all of the weekly data points and plotting them will help you get a visual portrayal of the market in CV that cannot be evaluated looking at single data points.

The active/pending ratio is a statistic that can give you insight into the strength of the submarket at any given time. So if there are 150 active listings and 30 pending in a given month, and then 160 active listings and 20 pendings in a different month, the results are pretty obvious. The active/pending ratio “may help” to filter out seasonal fluctuations that are omnipresent in real estate sales (there are ALWAYS more actives in the spring then in the fall). However does the active/pending ratio change in the spring verses the fall? See what I am saying?

Now as far as distress go, one school of thought is that more desireable areas have less distressed sellers. Personally I think this is true for the most part HOWEVER I think there is a strong variance within desireable areas with regard to distressed sellers. My bias is that newer desireable areas will have more distressed sellers then more established desireable areas. With regards to CV yes your assumption was are distressed properties short sales, REO or NOTs? Yes but they also may consist of people who must move due to divorce, relocation, losing jobs, etc. How can you factor that into the analysis? Well one thing you can do is ask your realtor to look for comments in the active listings such as short, bank owned, REO, etc and come up with a ratio of how many distressed active listings there are verses non distressed. If you do that for a few weeks or months you can see if the ratio starts to swing. It is not alot different then sdrealtors short sale monitor but you would do it for that particular zip code. Then you can see if that zip code is indeed growing in distress ratio.

As always, hope this helps.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

jyu –

This bellweather that sdrealtor tracks is really effective but it becomes even more useful if you take a cumulative look at it. For instance if you track the short sale thread that sdrealtor maintains, another poster artifact as taken the raw data and plots it. If you really want to gain insight into the market then taking all of the weekly data points and plotting them will help you get a visual portrayal of the market in CV that cannot be evaluated looking at single data points.

The active/pending ratio is a statistic that can give you insight into the strength of the submarket at any given time. So if there are 150 active listings and 30 pending in a given month, and then 160 active listings and 20 pendings in a different month, the results are pretty obvious. The active/pending ratio “may help” to filter out seasonal fluctuations that are omnipresent in real estate sales (there are ALWAYS more actives in the spring then in the fall). However does the active/pending ratio change in the spring verses the fall? See what I am saying?

Now as far as distress go, one school of thought is that more desireable areas have less distressed sellers. Personally I think this is true for the most part HOWEVER I think there is a strong variance within desireable areas with regard to distressed sellers. My bias is that newer desireable areas will have more distressed sellers then more established desireable areas. With regards to CV yes your assumption was are distressed properties short sales, REO or NOTs? Yes but they also may consist of people who must move due to divorce, relocation, losing jobs, etc. How can you factor that into the analysis? Well one thing you can do is ask your realtor to look for comments in the active listings such as short, bank owned, REO, etc and come up with a ratio of how many distressed active listings there are verses non distressed. If you do that for a few weeks or months you can see if the ratio starts to swing. It is not alot different then sdrealtors short sale monitor but you would do it for that particular zip code. Then you can see if that zip code is indeed growing in distress ratio.

As always, hope this helps.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

I’ve got the Active pending ratio graphed for the last 14 months. Anyone care to tell me how to post it?

[sdrealtor]

I’ve got the Active pending ratio graphed for the last 14 months. Anyone care to tell me how to post it?

[sdrealtor]

I’ve got the Active pending ratio graphed for the last 14 months. Anyone care to tell me how to post it?

[sdrealtor]

I’ve got the Active pending ratio graphed for the last 14 months. Anyone care to tell me how to post it?

[NotCranky]

That is neat sdrealtor,good idea. Depending on how much you want to learn how to do the graph in the forum, maybe you could post the numbers and let somebody else do it? I don’t know how yet, but it seems like somebody would step up.

[NotCranky]

That is neat sdrealtor,good idea. Depending on how much you want to learn how to do the graph in the forum, maybe you could post the numbers and let somebody else do it? I don’t know how yet, but it seems like somebody would step up.

[NotCranky]

That is neat sdrealtor,good idea. Depending on how much you want to learn how to do the graph in the forum, maybe you could post the numbers and let somebody else do it? I don’t know how yet, but it seems like somebody would step up.

[Author]

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