CA demographic shifts in the coming years will favor cities over suburbia

[Coronita]

deleted

[briansd1]

[quote=flu]

Not really. The issue is that in bay area is that unlike in san diego, the suburb is no longer affordable and there really is a shortage of housing…For example a 4/2.5 in sunnyvale rents for about $3k/month and the place is a dump and there’s no problem finding a tenant. Your theory would be supported if there was a mass vacancy in the burbs like sunnyvalue/mountainview/palo alto/and every place up the 101 corridor. And that isn’t the case, with the exception of east palo alto and parts of east bay…but that’s obvious because those parts have been coined “ghetto”, rightfully or wrong…

Signed,
Dumpy landlord.[/quote]

Actually it supports my view that companies will pay the high costs to be near the skills they want, the people they want to hire, the place where people want to live.

The move to the suburbs after WWII, originally was for space, to lower costs and for a more “wholesome” environment.

Give it another 30 years and Silicon Valley will become a city, like Irvine is in the process of becoming. We might have “fake” reproductions and new iterations of cities.

I’m arguing in favor of urban clusters that attract professional workers (in contrast to the traditional sprawl of the burbs).

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flu] . . . The issue is that in bay area is that unlike in san diego, the suburb is no longer affordable and there really is a shortage of housing…For example a 4/2.5 in sunnyvale rents for about $3k/month and the place is a dump and there’s no problem finding a tenant. Your theory would be supported if there was a mass vacancy in the burbs like sunnyvalue/mountainview/palo alto/and every place up the 101 corridor. And that isn’t the case, with the exception of east palo alto and parts of east bay…but that’s obvious because those parts have been coined “ghetto”, rightfully or wrong…

Signed,
Dumpy landlord.[/quote]

flu, from your post, it sounds like you would advocate spending $450K+ for that “dumpy” late ’40’s 3/1 in Millbrae on a postage-stamp lot with a 1.5 car garage, no?? Perhaps you could even score it for $385K for all cash and do a little “wknd fixup” to ready it for tenants! Do you think the rental numbers are looking good enough in SV to invest in SFR’s or duplexes there, due to a housing shortage? Are you an SV landlord at present? If so, how has your cash flow been??

Thanks for any help. I’m very interested in SM Co, and, to a lesser extent, SC Co for retirement and/or investment purposes. Not sure yet if I want to be part of the year mtns and part of the year city but will make that decision in the next two years :=]

[The-Shoveler]

I still say we will have one large Mega City on the SoCal West Coast,
Sprawl from Fraser Park to TJ.
Of course the coast will always be at a premium .
The Burb’s are just in a slight slow down at the moment, we are still adding population in TV, and Valencia those are the only two I checked on.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]I never had to dive it but I think San Jose is like 90 minutes form SF on a average day, I guess just a little wrose then TV to Downtown SD.[/quote]

I’ve only driven it in reverse (SJ to SF) a few times in the afternoon rush and it took 50-60 mins. SJ is a “city” in its own right with a greater population than that of Denver, CO. It is approx 51-52 miles from dtn SJ to dtn SF (SOMA/Union Square). Dtn Temecula to dtn SD is approx 73 miles and likely takes over one hr to drive during peak times.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]I still say we will have one large Mega City on the SoCal West Coast,
Sprawl from Fraser Park to TJ.
Of course the coast will always be at a premium .
The Burb’s are just in a slight slow down at the moment, we are still adding population in TV, and Valencia those are the only two I checked on.[/quote]

Nor-LA, I am curious as to where the newcomers to Valencia area and TV are coming from. And are they younger workers or retirees?

[The-Shoveler]

I will need to recheck to get the numbers.
TV is probably a mixture, Valencia is definitely younger families.
Valencia has grown into a Job center these days, something I think TV is well on it’s way to.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=walterwhite]My ultimate dream is the opposite; to have zero motorized vehicles. That would make me happy someday.[/quote]

scaredy, if you decide to “retire” back in your “beloved” Brooklyn, NY, you just might be able to do this :=]

[The-Shoveler]

Temecula Current Population(2011): 101657;
The 2010 United States Census reported that Temecula had a population of 100097.
2010 Est. Median Household Income $84,141
2010 Est. Average Household Income $98,739
2010 Est. Average Effective Buying Income $76,586 2010
Est. Median Effective Buying Income $66,335 Median Age (Years) 30.81 2010
Est. Household Size (People) 3.26
Largest Population Group (age) 25-34 (15.43%)
Number Of Households 27,148

Valencia The 2010 United States Census reported that Santa Clarita had a population of 176320.
population of 176971 in January 2011.
Under 5 years 11829 7.83%
5 to 9 years 13905 9.2%
10 to 14 years 13077 8.66%
15 to 19 years 11047 7.31%
20 to 24 years 8219 5.44%
25 to 34 years 21480 14.22%
35 to 44 years 29338 19.42%
45 to 54 years 20969 13.88%
55 to 59 years 6322 4.18%
60 to 64 years 4177 2.76%
65 to 74 years 5757 3.81%

[briansd1]

If you live in the far flung suburbs, be honest and tell us how many friends and relatives from out of town come and visit you every year. Or are you there by your lonesome selves?

[scaredyclassic]

I hate Brooklyn and NYC. I can survive in temecula w just a velocipede

[AK]

[quote=briansd1]If you live in the far flung suburbs, be honest and tell us how many friends and relatives from out of town come and visit you every year. Or are you there by your lonesome selves?[/quote]

Too many. I put a latex mattress in the guest room just so my allergic-to-everything MIL can’t spend the night.

[ocrenter]

Speaking of WLA, just took a look at their traffic map at 7:50. 405 and 10 and ALL major streets are still completely red. Meanwhile I have been home for 2 hours and getting ready for my nightly walk in my far flung suburb

[temeculaguy]

BG, we actually agree on something, that retirees will not be heading to downtown SD. I took stabs at the places they go because those are places in the past they have gone, but you actually are in that boat so you see where the current trends are. However, downtown SD or downtowns of big cities are not the usual spots, even though sdrealtor cited some exceptions. There will always be exceptions, but I was speaking more to a trend on such a scale as to affect an entire market like the original article alluded to. I’m only 43, yet after 21 years with the same employer, I seem to reguarly attend retirement parties these days since some of them were working for 10 years or more when I first met them. They seem to either stay put, or pack up and head for less dense areas. Places that have lower taxes on their retirement, lower costs and in many cases, cheaper real estate. It is not uncommon for them to unload the family home and pay cash elsewhere with their equity. Lots of them seem to like land, deserts or mountains. Not one moved to a place considered “urban.”

To answer brians statement, my kids will likely do what I did and do what most people do. They grow up in suburbs, go to college away from home, live in a cool city, find someone to marry, make babies and then move back to the suburbs. It’s not 100%, but it’s the most common scenario.

To answer BG’s question about where they are coming from and who are they. Most are people who lived in cities, had a baby, and away they go, to get away from people and live amongst the others like them. Some are retirees that didn’t want to leave the state because of grandkids and such, but wanted to lower their costs and commuting wasn’t an issue. The many golf courses, wineries and casino were draws (older ladies dig the slots, old dudes love the golf, everyone likes wine). But it’s mostly young families. The influx is actually having a great affect, I bought at the end of 2008 and because it was a thrashed repo I ended up going FHA 5% down so I could hold back my cash to fix it up. Also cause I read too much piggington and was affraid we’d be on spam and ammo by now. Yesterday I got my appraisal back for the refi I’m doing. I’m up 30% during the worst housing crisis of the century, not only did I lower my rate, without paying anything, my LTV is about 70% now so I just got a conventional fixed and no PMI, and believe me they are picky and it is a fair appraisal if not on the low side of the comps.

Regarding the jobs moving to urban areas, there are many studies and evidence to the contrary. large employers are trending away from the cities, to the suburbs, where their employees can live better, for less and raise families. Nor LA mentioned Valencia, that is where movie and television studios have been moving as well as a number of other industries, because their employees don’t want to live in the city and it’s cheaper and more expandible to chase the employees that the reverse.

lastly, brian, you are basing a lot of prognostications on your limited journey. Stop for just a minute and listen to those who have more in their rear view mirror to look at. I actually grew up in Los Angeles’ version of temecula, I grew up in valencia. After college in a city, living in a city, once a kid was on the way, I went looking for my valencia. May parents moved there when it was under 30k people. Everyone else followed them and they eventually left after we were raised on gone and made a killing. I moved to temecula when it was the same thing, 30k people and saw the exact same thing start to happen. When Mrs. Brian comes along and brian jr. is on the way, send me an e-mail and I’ll help you out picking the next one.

Oh wait I had one more comment, brian mentioned friends. You will see, as your friends marry off and have babies, they will leave you for suburbs, when you get to your suburb, you’ll actually make better friends. I’, only a few years away from having to live here for my kids and when the day comes when i can I move, I’m not sure i will. The reason is because duing 20 years I’ve made friends that aren’t just people I have a few cocktails with, but they are people that I have shared raising kids with, been through ups and downs with, in all aspects of life. Through relatives dying, illnesses, financial hardship and financial success. I talk to them all the time and see them at least weekly. It’s not one or two, it’s dozens, suburbanites are an alien race to you, but we are a close tribe. I’m not sure I can ever leave them, so I can walk to art galleries, they are almost family.

[an]

I myself never wanted to live in the city and I can say with a certainty that I never will want to in the future. One of my favorite hobby (cars) prevent me from wanting to live in a city with no garage. Ideally, I would get a place with 4 car garage if not 6. When I retire, I want to get a garage tall enough to put in a lift. I also get claustrophobic when I’m in cities like SF. Chicago is not so bad, since the streets are wide. Every time I have to go there for work, can’t wait to get out of that city. You can’t pay me to live there. I like my space and elbow room and the city does not have that option for me. On top of those two factors, there are very little choices in term of ethnic supermarkets.

[Author]

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