CA demographic shifts in the coming years will favor cities over suburbia

[The-Shoveler]

“I believe there are too many regulations to growth in the city.”

OK I can go with that, but SD has a lot of room really compared to someplace like L.A. and even North OC so it can grow some more yet really, it just needs to open up the land to development. (or let the burbs be burbs)
But yea with growth restrictions.
Sometimes I think the City of Temecula is kind of the same in that regard, The other cities are not going to impede their growth, and there will be new areas to the east of the wine country and south, trust me they will want to grow, seems farfetched now, but let’s bring up this tread in twenty years.

[bearishgurl]

[quote]I have a couple friends who bought in Bay Park (one of them a badly done flip), and I like both of their houses and the area, which is why I mentioned it. It’s even on my list, albeit lower down than Carlsbad. I know exactly what you get there, and in my mind, a smaller place means less layout to screw up and more fun to fix up…

…I’m fine with old, as long as it’s small, but not for the larger “forever” house. That will be less than 10 years old…[/quote]

Ren, did your friends who purchased in Bay Park purchase in “the flats?” And did they pay +/-$400K??

You state here that Bay Park is “on your list” but not for your “forever house.” What type of property would you actually purchase in Bay Park, then? And why wouldn’t you purchase a larger “old” house there?

Would a Bay Park purchase be an investment rental property for you?

[quote=Ren]Try putting a $400k house from a southern state next to the east county house – while the $400k Georgia house is a lot nicer than the east county house, it’s an even more pointless exercise.[/quote]

23 miles is NOT 3000 miles. We are discussing properties in the same locale which are both viewless (actually “GH” has a rear view of horse corrals) and both have similar weather and humidity levels. Your “comparison property” is WAY off the mark.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1 re: MD]…Maybe the older close-in suburbs need to compete and allow upzoning the lots to build new 3-story 3000sf house with elevators. Get rid of the suburban yards, and build more densely like in Georgetown…[/quote]

This has been tried in some of the close-in ‘burbs there, brian and after these monstrosities were erected (on a razed lot) among the existing beautiful “historical” properties, local public outcries ensued. These close-in cities to DC are now more closely scrutinizing permits before issuing them.

Perhaps there are no laws there directing a homeowner or lot owner seeking permits to inform every property owner within 300 ft of their property of their proposed building plans (or of a mtg to learn about their plans) PRIOR to obtaining permits to do so, as we have here :={

[briansd1]

[quote=bearishgurl]
This has been tried in some of the close-in ‘burbs there, brian and after these monstrosities were erected (on a razed lot) among the existing beautiful “historical” properties, local public outcries ensued. [/quote]

Not talking about DC in particular, but “monstrosities” are a matter of taste and will get built regardless. Do you want them near the city, or do you want people to abandon older neighborhoods for more sprawl.

You were talking about Bay Park earlier. It’s a fair neighborhood (arguably nice because of location), IMO… but it’s full of unkept old bungalows of not much value. Why not make it easy for people to build the same size houses they would buy in Carlbad or Rancho Bernardo? If the city would upzone the lots and allow splits or allow condos to be built, property in the area would be more valuable making it easier for owners to cash out and move to wherever they want to go. The people who want to continue living there can do so for as long as they want.

[Ren]

[quote=bearishgurl]Ren, did your friends who purchased in Bay Park purchase in “the flats?” And did they pay +/-$400K??[/quote]

One in the flats, one not. They both overpaid, but then I believe everyone is still overpaying for coastal properties.

[quote]You state here that Bay Park is “on your list” but not for your “forever house.” What type of property would you actually purchase in Bay Park, then? And why wouldn’t you purchase a larger “old” house there?[/quote]

A 2-bedroom, 1100-1300 square feet. Not at today’s prices, but maybe 10-15% lower. I wouldn’t purchase a larger house there because it would be too expensive and unnecessary. Our kids will be sharing a room for many years. The forever house will require 4 bedrooms, a casita, and a 10k+ lot.

[quote]Would a Bay Park purchase be an investment rental property for you?[/quote]

Eventually. It would be a temporary home for 5-10 years, then a rental. It isn’t likely to happen, though – you get much more for your money in Carlsbad, which is where I work anyway.

[quote]23 miles is NOT 3000 miles. We are discussing properties in the same locale which are both viewless (actually “GH” has a rear view of horse corrals) and both have similar weather and humidity levels. Your “comparison property” is WAY off the mark.[/quote]

You’re missing the point, which is that there is always a nicer house somewhere, but if I don’t want to live there, then there’s no comparison, and no value to that property for me. In other words, the east county house may as well be in Georgia, because I refuse to live in that location. The fact that it’s a giant turd doesn’t make it any more enticing.

Move on, BG. The horse is long dead.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Ren][quote=bearishgurl]…What type of property would you actually purchase in Bay Park, then? And why wouldn’t you purchase a larger “old” house there?[/quote]A 2-bedroom, 1100-1300 square feet. Not at today’s prices, but maybe 10-15% lower. I wouldn’t purchase a larger house there because it would be too expensive and unnecessary. Our kids will be sharing a room for many years… [/quote]

Ren, I don’t see why buying one of those WWII-era smallish houses in the flats for 10-15% less isn’t doable now. Given the challenge, I wouldn’t have any problems making a deal like that in short order (listed or unlisted) 🙂 Unless, of course, you are unable to sell your existing property, recover your downpayment and pay off your encumbrances and don’t wish to rent it out. Bay Park is certainly closer to Carlsbad than where you are living.

[quote=Ren]Move on, BG. The horse is long dead.[/quote]

No worries, Ren. That “dead horse” is now sold (among live horses, lol), closing exactly 70 days after being listed. I’ve seen the exterior and surrounds and like the property so threw it out there for the Piggs to munch on. Mission accomplished.

The consensus seems to be that the Piggs who responded are actually satisfied with where they live and are unwilling to change it unless they can move significantly up the price ladder. So when Piggs here talk about extra room for hobbies, parking, casitas, granny flats, etc and mull over trying to do something like this on their suburban tract property with <7000K sf lot (and wonder if it's really "worth" it to try to seek permits and sink real $$ down the rabbit hole), I've put an option out there. In north county, there are plenty more like Lanai in Escondido, San Marcos, Vista and Valley Center.

I believe that the reality is that a "cosmetic fixer" such as Lanai is "too much work" for most potential buyers today and they are unable to envision what it would look like freshened up and possibly reconfigured a bit. That's why there is still profitable work out there for flippers. And that's why most buyers overpay for *newer* properties on <=5000 sf lots. The developers and sellers "stage" these properties to appeal to the masses and it works. btw, "Bay Park" is no more "coastal" than dtn Chula Vista. It is situated inside of Mission Bay with I-5 beside or below it between it and the bay. There are many (older and newer) houses in Chula Vista with a bay/ocean view as well. Even with views of the Coronados and TJ. I have no view but am just one mile from I-5 and SD Bay :=]

[sdrealtor]

And the punchline is…….There are many (older and newer) houses in Chula Vista with a bay/ocean view as well. Even with views of the Coronados and TJ.

Is a view of TJ supposed to be a good thing?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]Is a view of TJ supposed to be a good thing?[/quote]

Actually, it is spectacular. TJ is a VERY large city and has a lot of lights near the border on … late into the night (city lights, NOT BP lights).

🙂

But I realize this can’t compete with all those huge high-intensity utility easements perpetually in your line of sight up there in “Nirvana,” lol …

[sdrealtor]

lol…I’ll leave it up to the rest of the Piggs to let you know what a crazy old bird you are.

[briansd1]

Nor-LA-SD-GUY2 said that women prefer the city and men prefer the suburbs.

I think it’s the opposite. It seems to me women are always agonizing over where to best raise their children. Interesting article about his topic:

My parents left New York City in 1979 and moved north to a Mayberry manqué in Westchester called Irvington. That was just what bourgeois couples did when they were expecting. You can’t really blame them. They had spent three years as interns and residents in hospitals in the South Bronx, taking care of patients with gunshot wounds and reviving heroin addicts. The apartment they’d lived in had been burglarized, and besides, they were children of the suburbs themselves.

But last month, upon their joint retiring, my mom and dad moved to the Upper West Side of Manhattan. My mom, observing the cheerful mamas and papas in Riverside Park and the general safety of their surroundings, told me over the phone, “If New York had been like this when we were having children, we never would have left.”

[DaCounselor]

I am Gen X not Gen Y but I see no reason why Gen Y will not follow a similar path as they age.

I’m estimating I had about 20 friends living in SF while in their 20’s. Great times. They all got married, started having kids, and every single of one of them moved out of the urban core. Typical reasons of course – more space, schools, safety, more kid-oriented environment. Access to bars and restaurants move pretty far down the list of priorities.

Same exact thing with a handful of friends in NYC and Chicago and then a huge number of friends in DC all moving out to suburbia. Same reasons as above.

This is a huge country with people choosing to live in many varied settings and there is no right or wrong as far as I’m concerned. I know plenty of very smart, fun, cool, hip people living in stucco boxes in suburbia because the time came to make the trade based on changing priorities. And they are living well and enjoying life.

To each his own.

[ctr70]

Not every suburb is a “stucco box” either. the suburbs of Boston like Brookline MA are gorgeous tree lined, quaint, with character, every home different. And I’m sure NYC (Westchester Co.), Chicago (Evanston) and DC too. Much of Seattle too.

Southern Cal, the southwest, and much of the sunbelt (TX, FL, etc…) the suburbs are just so hard on the eyes and senses. Just oceans of tan stucco boxes, fast food chains and boxy strip centers. SUV car culture and you never see people waking on the sidewalks, etc… Totally generic. No uniqueness, no character.

I was driving up the 15 to Corona yesterday and I think Riverside Co. is THE poster child for GENERIC! You could be anywhere, Dallas, Phoenix, Vegas…it all looks the same! Bland!

[UCGal]

[quote=ctr70]Not every suburb is a “stucco box” either. the suburbs of Boston like Brookline MA are gorgeous tree lined, quaint, with character, every home different. And I’m sure NYC (Westchester Co.), Chicago (Evanston) and DC too. Much of Seattle too.[/quote]
Yep – I lived less than 2 miles from the city border of Philadelphia – and this was my shopping area (1.5 blocks from my house)
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=keswick+theater,+glenside,+pa&hl=en&ll=40.105813,-75.147042&spn=0.010323,0.01869&sll=32.853922,-117.21468&sspn=0.094166,0.149517&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=16&layer=c&cbll=40.105991,-75.147136&panoid=CeLs-VRVKN8nEUzZvmfzjw&cbp=12,340.42,,0,11.73
And this was my street
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Fairhill+Avenue,+Glenside,+PA&hl=en&ll=40.102531,-75.148512&spn=0.005359,0.009345&sll=40.105994,-75.147128&sspn=0.010405,0.01869&vpsrc=6&t=h&z=17&layer=c&cbll=40.102562,-75.148634&panoid=0hUKltXWufKxA4XoKNXv7w&cbp=12,243.37,,0,8.89

Not stucco box at all.

That said – the neighborhood around where I worked – just 5 miles away – total tract home bla-ness.

[briansd1]

Nice streets, UCGal.
But that’s small scale village like.

Rhinebeck, NY is a nice exurb of the city. But that kind of village feel does not scale for large numbers of people and large scale economic activity.

This is a interesting video of the rebuilding of the South Bronx.
http://video.nytimes.com/video/2011/10/04/arts/100000001089498/south-bronx-rising.html

For those who have not been to NJ, outside of New York recently, areas such as Jersey City and Hoboken are great examples of dense city developments with modern, confortable apartments, just across the river from Manhattan.

After being away in NY, and Philadelphia, I come back to dreary SD weather. As I drive 20 miles through freeways and strip malls just to get somewhere, I feel like SD is not that great without the sunny weather.

So I conclude that SD is all about nice weather and being on the ocean. The city itself, and the culure is has to offer are just OK.

[sdrealtor]

Head back to those places in a couple months and trudge through 6 inches of slush for a week or two and then tell me how much you love it. Better yet go right before a major snowstorm when the cities shut down for a week or 2 and you are stuck in your house trying to find something to eat.

[Author]

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