Buying a house at the new top of the market?

[sdcellar]

As I was saying, I’m definitely not trying to time the bottom, just trying to avoid a top and even a drop of 5% is nothing to sneeze at. Also, the area I’m looking at hasn’t seen anything close to 40-50% drops, but that doesn’t change the fact that it will probably “easier” to recoup any short term loss.

I’m also not seeking perfection, but given that I’ve been patient this long, if I can get something that’s a little closer to perfection and only hang on another 6-12 months, I’d do it in a second. Probably not the smartest thing, but I’m trying to get a house that I’ll be as happy about as my last one. This one is close.

To whoever asked, this property would not cash flow, but it wouldn’t be stupid negative either and that means maybe it could just a bit down the road (maybe 7-10 years). And this isn’t that type of property anyway.

Also, I don’t want to tell everybody the address, but I will help narrow things down as I know it’s hard to give advice when the scope is essentially limitless. Basically, it’s a North County Coastal property somewhere between South Carlsbad and La Jolla (inclusive). Some of you may have already guessed that when I said the area hadn’t been hit that hard pricewise. Beyond that, I don’t think there’s much more I can say, because the Piggies are smarties. I don’t need you stealing my house from me or firebombing it after I move in (a few on this site aren’t my biggest fans…) I guess I can also add that it’s not (what I would consider) a starter house. We be livin’ there for a long time.

Even though that last bit ameliorates downside concerns considerably, don’t assume I want to disregard them. Again, I care at least a little bit about what I can get for the same money in a not too distant future.

[an]

UCGal, I agree with everything you’ve said. I know sdcellar have given me grief before when I said I was prepared for a 20% loss, but I would advice him to be prepared for the same. Many are talking about 2nd leg down, so if he’s thinking about buying now, buying a house that’s more expensive than rent, buying a house in an area that haven’t seen that big of a decline, he should be prepared to lose 20%. If it doesn’t happen, then he would have prepared for the worse but if it does happen, he won’t be caught off guard. If he can’t stomach a decline and he’s already thinking this might be a mini top, I could see him regretting it if he end up being correct and it does drop some more. I remember he giving grief for talking about staying in the house long term. It sounded like he thinks the average people staying in the house for 5-7 years. I’m not sure if he consider himself as average or not, but I personally would wait if his plan is only 5-7 out. Like you said, if he’s plan is <7 years, the gamble is too risky for my taste.

[an]

UCGal, I agree with everything you’ve said. I know sdcellar have given me grief before when I said I was prepared for a 20% loss, but I would advice him to be prepared for the same. Many are talking about 2nd leg down, so if he’s thinking about buying now, buying a house that’s more expensive than rent, buying a house in an area that haven’t seen that big of a decline, he should be prepared to lose 20%. If it doesn’t happen, then he would have prepared for the worse but if it does happen, he won’t be caught off guard. If he can’t stomach a decline and he’s already thinking this might be a mini top, I could see him regretting it if he end up being correct and it does drop some more. I remember he giving grief for talking about staying in the house long term. It sounded like he thinks the average people staying in the house for 5-7 years. I’m not sure if he consider himself as average or not, but I personally would wait if his plan is only 5-7 out. Like you said, if he’s plan is <7 years, the gamble is too risky for my taste.

[an]

UCGal, I agree with everything you’ve said. I know sdcellar have given me grief before when I said I was prepared for a 20% loss, but I would advice him to be prepared for the same. Many are talking about 2nd leg down, so if he’s thinking about buying now, buying a house that’s more expensive than rent, buying a house in an area that haven’t seen that big of a decline, he should be prepared to lose 20%. If it doesn’t happen, then he would have prepared for the worse but if it does happen, he won’t be caught off guard. If he can’t stomach a decline and he’s already thinking this might be a mini top, I could see him regretting it if he end up being correct and it does drop some more. I remember he giving grief for talking about staying in the house long term. It sounded like he thinks the average people staying in the house for 5-7 years. I’m not sure if he consider himself as average or not, but I personally would wait if his plan is only 5-7 out. Like you said, if he’s plan is <7 years, the gamble is too risky for my taste.

[an]

UCGal, I agree with everything you’ve said. I know sdcellar have given me grief before when I said I was prepared for a 20% loss, but I would advice him to be prepared for the same. Many are talking about 2nd leg down, so if he’s thinking about buying now, buying a house that’s more expensive than rent, buying a house in an area that haven’t seen that big of a decline, he should be prepared to lose 20%. If it doesn’t happen, then he would have prepared for the worse but if it does happen, he won’t be caught off guard. If he can’t stomach a decline and he’s already thinking this might be a mini top, I could see him regretting it if he end up being correct and it does drop some more. I remember he giving grief for talking about staying in the house long term. It sounded like he thinks the average people staying in the house for 5-7 years. I’m not sure if he consider himself as average or not, but I personally would wait if his plan is only 5-7 out. Like you said, if he’s plan is <7 years, the gamble is too risky for my taste.

[an]

UCGal, I agree with everything you’ve said. I know sdcellar have given me grief before when I said I was prepared for a 20% loss, but I would advice him to be prepared for the same. Many are talking about 2nd leg down, so if he’s thinking about buying now, buying a house that’s more expensive than rent, buying a house in an area that haven’t seen that big of a decline, he should be prepared to lose 20%. If it doesn’t happen, then he would have prepared for the worse but if it does happen, he won’t be caught off guard. If he can’t stomach a decline and he’s already thinking this might be a mini top, I could see him regretting it if he end up being correct and it does drop some more. I remember he giving grief for talking about staying in the house long term. It sounded like he thinks the average people staying in the house for 5-7 years. I’m not sure if he consider himself as average or not, but I personally would wait if his plan is only 5-7 out. Like you said, if he’s plan is <7 years, the gamble is too risky for my taste.

[teaboy]

All good points on this topic, but allow me a brief interlude to help y’all tighten up some spelling:

your = second person possessive adjective
you’re = contraction of “you are”

advice = noun
advise = verb

and don’t get me started about there, their, & they’re…

TB ps. I’ve deliberately assumed a relaxed grammar for this post. 🙂

[teaboy]

All good points on this topic, but allow me a brief interlude to help y’all tighten up some spelling:

your = second person possessive adjective
you’re = contraction of “you are”

advice = noun
advise = verb

and don’t get me started about there, their, & they’re…

TB ps. I’ve deliberately assumed a relaxed grammar for this post. 🙂

[teaboy]

All good points on this topic, but allow me a brief interlude to help y’all tighten up some spelling:

your = second person possessive adjective
you’re = contraction of “you are”

advice = noun
advise = verb

and don’t get me started about there, their, & they’re…

TB ps. I’ve deliberately assumed a relaxed grammar for this post. 🙂

[teaboy]

All good points on this topic, but allow me a brief interlude to help y’all tighten up some spelling:

your = second person possessive adjective
you’re = contraction of “you are”

advice = noun
advise = verb

and don’t get me started about there, their, & they’re…

TB ps. I’ve deliberately assumed a relaxed grammar for this post. 🙂

[teaboy]

All good points on this topic, but allow me a brief interlude to help y’all tighten up some spelling:

your = second person possessive adjective
you’re = contraction of “you are”

advice = noun
advise = verb

and don’t get me started about there, their, & they’re…

TB ps. I’ve deliberately assumed a relaxed grammar for this post. 🙂

[sdcellar]

UCGal, yes, we’re planning on staying in the house until our pre-school age kids finish high school. We can imagine this as the last house we’d ever buy, but that’s getting pretty far ahead of ourselves. We have contingency savings. We’ll still be able to set aside retirement money and take vacations.

So, I certainly think we meet the buy criteria and wouldn’t be making an offer otherwise. Fair to ask though, because I’ve seen plenty of folks who think they’re both getting their foot in the door and will be able to move up in the not to terribly distant future. Big potential mistake/risk in my opinion.

[sdcellar]

UCGal, yes, we’re planning on staying in the house until our pre-school age kids finish high school. We can imagine this as the last house we’d ever buy, but that’s getting pretty far ahead of ourselves. We have contingency savings. We’ll still be able to set aside retirement money and take vacations.

So, I certainly think we meet the buy criteria and wouldn’t be making an offer otherwise. Fair to ask though, because I’ve seen plenty of folks who think they’re both getting their foot in the door and will be able to move up in the not to terribly distant future. Big potential mistake/risk in my opinion.

[sdcellar]

UCGal, yes, we’re planning on staying in the house until our pre-school age kids finish high school. We can imagine this as the last house we’d ever buy, but that’s getting pretty far ahead of ourselves. We have contingency savings. We’ll still be able to set aside retirement money and take vacations.

So, I certainly think we meet the buy criteria and wouldn’t be making an offer otherwise. Fair to ask though, because I’ve seen plenty of folks who think they’re both getting their foot in the door and will be able to move up in the not to terribly distant future. Big potential mistake/risk in my opinion.

[sdcellar]

UCGal, yes, we’re planning on staying in the house until our pre-school age kids finish high school. We can imagine this as the last house we’d ever buy, but that’s getting pretty far ahead of ourselves. We have contingency savings. We’ll still be able to set aside retirement money and take vacations.

So, I certainly think we meet the buy criteria and wouldn’t be making an offer otherwise. Fair to ask though, because I’ve seen plenty of folks who think they’re both getting their foot in the door and will be able to move up in the not to terribly distant future. Big potential mistake/risk in my opinion.

[Author]

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