Buy now or be priced out forever!

[barnaby33]

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.

I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.

All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.

As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.

All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.

Ticker link to S&P strategy
Josh

[equalizer]

Josh, Thanks for the link. As long as we our sharing our top secrets, the VIX over 40 has produced two great buy signals in Oct 98 and Aug 02. Ok, someone mix Josh's rule and mine and we have a near sure bet. For those who want simple, oakmark equity & income is biggest no brainer, high returns, lower risk, balanced fund with 10-Yr Annualized 11.58%:

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundnet/RatingsAndRisk.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=OAKBX

[equalizer]

Josh, Thanks for the link. As long as we our sharing our top secrets, the VIX over 40 has produced two great buy signals in Oct 98 and Aug 02. Ok, someone mix Josh's rule and mine and we have a near sure bet. For those who want simple, oakmark equity & income is biggest no brainer, high returns, lower risk, balanced fund with 10-Yr Annualized 11.58%:

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundnet/RatingsAndRisk.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=OAKBX

[equalizer]

Josh, Thanks for the link. As long as we our sharing our top secrets, the VIX over 40 has produced two great buy signals in Oct 98 and Aug 02. Ok, someone mix Josh's rule and mine and we have a near sure bet. For those who want simple, oakmark equity & income is biggest no brainer, high returns, lower risk, balanced fund with 10-Yr Annualized 11.58%:

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundnet/RatingsAndRisk.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=OAKBX

[equalizer]

Josh, Thanks for the link. As long as we our sharing our top secrets, the VIX over 40 has produced two great buy signals in Oct 98 and Aug 02. Ok, someone mix Josh's rule and mine and we have a near sure bet. For those who want simple, oakmark equity & income is biggest no brainer, high returns, lower risk, balanced fund with 10-Yr Annualized 11.58%:

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundnet/RatingsAndRisk.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=OAKBX

[equalizer]

Josh, Thanks for the link. As long as we our sharing our top secrets, the VIX over 40 has produced two great buy signals in Oct 98 and Aug 02. Ok, someone mix Josh's rule and mine and we have a near sure bet. For those who want simple, oakmark equity & income is biggest no brainer, high returns, lower risk, balanced fund with 10-Yr Annualized 11.58%:

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundnet/RatingsAndRisk.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=OAKBX

[blackbox]

Geez, this has really got out of hand.
Okay, you go ahead and invest the way you wish, and I will do the same. I’ve dollar cost average aggressively after the dot com bubble burst and I made a mint. I invested in energy with oil at $10 a barrel, and I did great. I’ll go long the XLF, homebuilders, banks, financials, the housing industry as soon as it becomes the worst place to invest in, and I will make a mint there too. In the meantime, I will dollar cost average with great mutual fund managers with every down spike in the stock market. So go ahead, chicken little and invest when things are great and going higher. Whatever works for you sparky!

[blackbox]

Geez, this has really got out of hand.
Okay, you go ahead and invest the way you wish, and I will do the same. I’ve dollar cost average aggressively after the dot com bubble burst and I made a mint. I invested in energy with oil at $10 a barrel, and I did great. I’ll go long the XLF, homebuilders, banks, financials, the housing industry as soon as it becomes the worst place to invest in, and I will make a mint there too. In the meantime, I will dollar cost average with great mutual fund managers with every down spike in the stock market. So go ahead, chicken little and invest when things are great and going higher. Whatever works for you sparky!

[blackbox]

Geez, this has really got out of hand.
Okay, you go ahead and invest the way you wish, and I will do the same. I’ve dollar cost average aggressively after the dot com bubble burst and I made a mint. I invested in energy with oil at $10 a barrel, and I did great. I’ll go long the XLF, homebuilders, banks, financials, the housing industry as soon as it becomes the worst place to invest in, and I will make a mint there too. In the meantime, I will dollar cost average with great mutual fund managers with every down spike in the stock market. So go ahead, chicken little and invest when things are great and going higher. Whatever works for you sparky!

[blackbox]

Geez, this has really got out of hand.
Okay, you go ahead and invest the way you wish, and I will do the same. I’ve dollar cost average aggressively after the dot com bubble burst and I made a mint. I invested in energy with oil at $10 a barrel, and I did great. I’ll go long the XLF, homebuilders, banks, financials, the housing industry as soon as it becomes the worst place to invest in, and I will make a mint there too. In the meantime, I will dollar cost average with great mutual fund managers with every down spike in the stock market. So go ahead, chicken little and invest when things are great and going higher. Whatever works for you sparky!

[blackbox]

Geez, this has really got out of hand.
Okay, you go ahead and invest the way you wish, and I will do the same. I’ve dollar cost average aggressively after the dot com bubble burst and I made a mint. I invested in energy with oil at $10 a barrel, and I did great. I’ll go long the XLF, homebuilders, banks, financials, the housing industry as soon as it becomes the worst place to invest in, and I will make a mint there too. In the meantime, I will dollar cost average with great mutual fund managers with every down spike in the stock market. So go ahead, chicken little and invest when things are great and going higher. Whatever works for you sparky!

[equalizer]

Hi Blackbox,

Can we engage with civility to make this a great thread? Please provide constructive criticism of my ideas, which appear to coincide with yours.

Thanks.

[equalizer]

Hi Blackbox,

Can we engage with civility to make this a great thread? Please provide constructive criticism of my ideas, which appear to coincide with yours.

Thanks.

[equalizer]

Hi Blackbox,

Can we engage with civility to make this a great thread? Please provide constructive criticism of my ideas, which appear to coincide with yours.

Thanks.

[equalizer]

Hi Blackbox,

Can we engage with civility to make this a great thread? Please provide constructive criticism of my ideas, which appear to coincide with yours.

Thanks.

[Author]

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