Buy now or be priced out forever!

[TheBreeze]

For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.

The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 10 years is 4%. The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 5 years is 11%. So the average annual return over the last 10 years hasn’t been great, but it’s certainly no disaster. The 5-year average annual return is very good.

Even if someone put all their money in at the top in 2000 (when the S&P500 topped out at approximately 1500), they would only be down 12%. Adjusted for inflation they would be down more than that, but that’s still not bad for putting all your money in at the all-time high (something that dollar-cost averaging would prevent).

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

[Arty]

10 year ago (I am looking at the S&P index now), the index is ~1050 and today is 1320. If my math is correct, as of today, the yield is only ~2.5% compound annually, and I believe a CD can do better at no risk.

I hold SDS ETF now (only 20% of my portfolio though), and rest of the money is in CDs and money market accounts. I will hold the SDS ETF until early next year or even longer. I will also consider buying some FXF or FXY if they begin to drop by a bit. You can laugh at me next year when SDS when to 10 dollars or lower :(.

[Arty]

10 year ago (I am looking at the S&P index now), the index is ~1050 and today is 1320. If my math is correct, as of today, the yield is only ~2.5% compound annually, and I believe a CD can do better at no risk.

I hold SDS ETF now (only 20% of my portfolio though), and rest of the money is in CDs and money market accounts. I will hold the SDS ETF until early next year or even longer. I will also consider buying some FXF or FXY if they begin to drop by a bit. You can laugh at me next year when SDS when to 10 dollars or lower :(.

[Arty]

10 year ago (I am looking at the S&P index now), the index is ~1050 and today is 1320. If my math is correct, as of today, the yield is only ~2.5% compound annually, and I believe a CD can do better at no risk.

I hold SDS ETF now (only 20% of my portfolio though), and rest of the money is in CDs and money market accounts. I will hold the SDS ETF until early next year or even longer. I will also consider buying some FXF or FXY if they begin to drop by a bit. You can laugh at me next year when SDS when to 10 dollars or lower :(.

[Arty]

10 year ago (I am looking at the S&P index now), the index is ~1050 and today is 1320. If my math is correct, as of today, the yield is only ~2.5% compound annually, and I believe a CD can do better at no risk.

I hold SDS ETF now (only 20% of my portfolio though), and rest of the money is in CDs and money market accounts. I will hold the SDS ETF until early next year or even longer. I will also consider buying some FXF or FXY if they begin to drop by a bit. You can laugh at me next year when SDS when to 10 dollars or lower :(.

[Arty]

10 year ago (I am looking at the S&P index now), the index is ~1050 and today is 1320. If my math is correct, as of today, the yield is only ~2.5% compound annually, and I believe a CD can do better at no risk.

I hold SDS ETF now (only 20% of my portfolio though), and rest of the money is in CDs and money market accounts. I will hold the SDS ETF until early next year or even longer. I will also consider buying some FXF or FXY if they begin to drop by a bit. You can laugh at me next year when SDS when to 10 dollars or lower :(.

[an]

If you go back 3 years longer, 13 years ago, S&P index was ~500. That would yield ~8% compound annually. That’s pretty good, don’t you think? If you go back and take the average over the last 30 years, S&P index average ~9%. That’s pretty I’d think.

[an]

If you go back 3 years longer, 13 years ago, S&P index was ~500. That would yield ~8% compound annually. That’s pretty good, don’t you think? If you go back and take the average over the last 30 years, S&P index average ~9%. That’s pretty I’d think.

[an]

If you go back 3 years longer, 13 years ago, S&P index was ~500. That would yield ~8% compound annually. That’s pretty good, don’t you think? If you go back and take the average over the last 30 years, S&P index average ~9%. That’s pretty I’d think.

[an]

If you go back 3 years longer, 13 years ago, S&P index was ~500. That would yield ~8% compound annually. That’s pretty good, don’t you think? If you go back and take the average over the last 30 years, S&P index average ~9%. That’s pretty I’d think.

[an]

If you go back 3 years longer, 13 years ago, S&P index was ~500. That would yield ~8% compound annually. That’s pretty good, don’t you think? If you go back and take the average over the last 30 years, S&P index average ~9%. That’s pretty I’d think.

[barnaby33]

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.

I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.

All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.

As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.

All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.

Ticker link to S&P strategy
Josh

[barnaby33]

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.

I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.

All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.

As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.

All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.

Ticker link to S&P strategy
Josh

[barnaby33]

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.

I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.

All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.

As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.

All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.

Ticker link to S&P strategy
Josh

[barnaby33]

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

Ah yes the classic straw man argument. I never claimed to be a genius, though to be perfectly immodest I certainly tested as such when I was 10. I’m a lot dumber now.

I just told you my strategy, you obviously weren’t comprehending when you read it. I’m going to wait till after Op-ex unless I think that the Fed induced pump is fading and load up on puts and ultra-shorts again. Probably SDS, though certainly SKF, and QID. Then I’ll buy puts on XLF. It’s not a real complicated strategy, you don’t even have to be a genius to implement it. I’ll even give away the secret to my success, I’m not a pig. I don’t need multi-baggers in terms of profitability. I start selling when I am around 30% profit and do so until I am out of my position.

All strategies work until they don’t. Chris that I give you credit for saying first. Fortunately I’m fairly confident that this strategy is going to work until the banks come clean about the sausage, which won’t be for quite a few more months, maybe even next year.

As to 4% returns a year, thats without inflation, which is meaningless. If you exclude inflation Zimbabwe was the best place on earth to invest in last year. According to the info I was able to find the S&P500 has grown 1% a year on average above inflation. If you honestly believe inflation is only running 4% you either don’t buy food/fuel/housing, or actually believe the govt. If you bought at the top of the 1999 market it took till 2004 just to break even nominally. Inflation adjusted you are probably still in the hole.

All of which is totally tangential, since its in the past. What is important here is where we are heading. My original point was and still is, sitting it out in cash for a few years is the only sane course of action for those who do not wish to assume lots of risk for potentially lots of reward.

Ticker link to S&P strategy
Josh

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