Business data point in Temecula

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]
I think is fairly safe to say given the number of sales in T.V. that it won’t be long (if you want a nice newer home anyway) before you either ..

a) Have to pay someone to build one for you.

b) Have to give someone like TG enough to sell you his.

Now how much do you think that would cost ???

[/quote]

I don’t buy this. Although TG, eclipxe or I wouldn’t sell the house to you, there are plenty of people who will. That is the real shadow inventory. People who restricted their mobility because the house price has come down 50%. Once it is moving up to what they paid for, they would want to get out.

Don’t get me wrong. I have optimistic view of T.V’s future. But I think we will see at least a few years’ housing price lagging the inflation in most places in US.

[temeculaguy]

I think carlsbad has a pretty good answer, most people who don’t have to sell, haven’t. Something to think about and I think it plays a bigger role than the bank shadow inventory.

But there is credence to the argument about diminishing space, temecula in particular, with the excepton of the half built tracts that shut down, there is no incorporated land left, during the next cycle it will experience its first land shortage. Those that are unfamiliar with the area and group in areas 10-15 miles north need to realize the distance between temec and wildomar is similar to carlsbad and escondido distance wise. There are no more orange groves to mow down, south is indian land/forest, east is county and 5 acre zoned, nothing left in the north of the city.

DWCAP, I don’t know how to answer the question, it was a stretch to call bottom, let alone call the style of the bottom. I’ll guess flat for all of 2009, the macro economy will dictate 2010. So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.

Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.

[temeculaguy]

I think carlsbad has a pretty good answer, most people who don’t have to sell, haven’t. Something to think about and I think it plays a bigger role than the bank shadow inventory.

But there is credence to the argument about diminishing space, temecula in particular, with the excepton of the half built tracts that shut down, there is no incorporated land left, during the next cycle it will experience its first land shortage. Those that are unfamiliar with the area and group in areas 10-15 miles north need to realize the distance between temec and wildomar is similar to carlsbad and escondido distance wise. There are no more orange groves to mow down, south is indian land/forest, east is county and 5 acre zoned, nothing left in the north of the city.

DWCAP, I don’t know how to answer the question, it was a stretch to call bottom, let alone call the style of the bottom. I’ll guess flat for all of 2009, the macro economy will dictate 2010. So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.

Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.

[temeculaguy]

I think carlsbad has a pretty good answer, most people who don’t have to sell, haven’t. Something to think about and I think it plays a bigger role than the bank shadow inventory.

But there is credence to the argument about diminishing space, temecula in particular, with the excepton of the half built tracts that shut down, there is no incorporated land left, during the next cycle it will experience its first land shortage. Those that are unfamiliar with the area and group in areas 10-15 miles north need to realize the distance between temec and wildomar is similar to carlsbad and escondido distance wise. There are no more orange groves to mow down, south is indian land/forest, east is county and 5 acre zoned, nothing left in the north of the city.

DWCAP, I don’t know how to answer the question, it was a stretch to call bottom, let alone call the style of the bottom. I’ll guess flat for all of 2009, the macro economy will dictate 2010. So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.

Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.

[temeculaguy]

I think carlsbad has a pretty good answer, most people who don’t have to sell, haven’t. Something to think about and I think it plays a bigger role than the bank shadow inventory.

But there is credence to the argument about diminishing space, temecula in particular, with the excepton of the half built tracts that shut down, there is no incorporated land left, during the next cycle it will experience its first land shortage. Those that are unfamiliar with the area and group in areas 10-15 miles north need to realize the distance between temec and wildomar is similar to carlsbad and escondido distance wise. There are no more orange groves to mow down, south is indian land/forest, east is county and 5 acre zoned, nothing left in the north of the city.

DWCAP, I don’t know how to answer the question, it was a stretch to call bottom, let alone call the style of the bottom. I’ll guess flat for all of 2009, the macro economy will dictate 2010. So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.

Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.

[temeculaguy]

I think carlsbad has a pretty good answer, most people who don’t have to sell, haven’t. Something to think about and I think it plays a bigger role than the bank shadow inventory.

But there is credence to the argument about diminishing space, temecula in particular, with the excepton of the half built tracts that shut down, there is no incorporated land left, during the next cycle it will experience its first land shortage. Those that are unfamiliar with the area and group in areas 10-15 miles north need to realize the distance between temec and wildomar is similar to carlsbad and escondido distance wise. There are no more orange groves to mow down, south is indian land/forest, east is county and 5 acre zoned, nothing left in the north of the city.

DWCAP, I don’t know how to answer the question, it was a stretch to call bottom, let alone call the style of the bottom. I’ll guess flat for all of 2009, the macro economy will dictate 2010. So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.

Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.

[TemekuT]

I vote for Killarney’s or La Cocina.

[TemekuT]

I vote for Killarney’s or La Cocina.

[TemekuT]

I vote for Killarney’s or La Cocina.

[TemekuT]

I vote for Killarney’s or La Cocina.

[TemekuT]

I vote for Killarney’s or La Cocina.

[Bob]

[quote=temeculaguy] So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.[/quote]

Very little play ?…..Did you read my posts ? Inflation will have EVERYTHING to do with the slow recovery…As I stated earlier, the Feds are keeping rates artificially low by purchasing US treasuries…but they can’t do that forever because if they do, hyperinflation will hit with a vengeance. As it is, the money already spent will create significant inflation in the not too distant future, and the end result will be higher interest rates. In fact, while they might not admit it publically, the Feds are trying to CREATE inflation to solve the huge debt problem that runaway spending has caused.

On a side note, the next bubble to burst could very well be the bond market. How the Federal Reserve reacts in the next six to nine months will go a long way in determining what mortgage rates/housing market will look like in 2010, 2011, and beyond.

[Bob]

[quote=temeculaguy] So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.[/quote]

Very little play ?…..Did you read my posts ? Inflation will have EVERYTHING to do with the slow recovery…As I stated earlier, the Feds are keeping rates artificially low by purchasing US treasuries…but they can’t do that forever because if they do, hyperinflation will hit with a vengeance. As it is, the money already spent will create significant inflation in the not too distant future, and the end result will be higher interest rates. In fact, while they might not admit it publically, the Feds are trying to CREATE inflation to solve the huge debt problem that runaway spending has caused.

On a side note, the next bubble to burst could very well be the bond market. How the Federal Reserve reacts in the next six to nine months will go a long way in determining what mortgage rates/housing market will look like in 2010, 2011, and beyond.

[Bob]

[quote=temeculaguy] So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.[/quote]

Very little play ?…..Did you read my posts ? Inflation will have EVERYTHING to do with the slow recovery…As I stated earlier, the Feds are keeping rates artificially low by purchasing US treasuries…but they can’t do that forever because if they do, hyperinflation will hit with a vengeance. As it is, the money already spent will create significant inflation in the not too distant future, and the end result will be higher interest rates. In fact, while they might not admit it publically, the Feds are trying to CREATE inflation to solve the huge debt problem that runaway spending has caused.

On a side note, the next bubble to burst could very well be the bond market. How the Federal Reserve reacts in the next six to nine months will go a long way in determining what mortgage rates/housing market will look like in 2010, 2011, and beyond.

[Bob]

[quote=temeculaguy] So many factors can have an effect, I think inflation is something that gets very little play these days but I don’t see how it is avoided in the next few years. I also don’t think the gov’t will fight it since it will help solve both the housing crisis and the debt issues.[/quote]

Very little play ?…..Did you read my posts ? Inflation will have EVERYTHING to do with the slow recovery…As I stated earlier, the Feds are keeping rates artificially low by purchasing US treasuries…but they can’t do that forever because if they do, hyperinflation will hit with a vengeance. As it is, the money already spent will create significant inflation in the not too distant future, and the end result will be higher interest rates. In fact, while they might not admit it publically, the Feds are trying to CREATE inflation to solve the huge debt problem that runaway spending has caused.

On a side note, the next bubble to burst could very well be the bond market. How the Federal Reserve reacts in the next six to nine months will go a long way in determining what mortgage rates/housing market will look like in 2010, 2011, and beyond.

[Author]

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