Business data point in Temecula

[Bob]

I’ve been following the Temecula Valley market closely for over a year, and while I won’t predict a bottom, I would like to describe what I’ve seen in the last few months.

First, available inventory is much lower now than it was back in December or January. The reason for this is simple – the moratoriums put in place by Fannie/Freddie, the banks, as well as the state of California, reduced supply while record low interest rates increased demand. The pick up in sales isn’t just exclusive to TV, but to most of Southern California. As of March 31, the moratoriums have been temporarily lifted. We should see a significant increase in supply during May and June due to the backlog of foreclosures that didn’t get to market during the first quarter. But, and this is a BIG but, the Feds and Obama, as well as the Governor of California, have said they will use as much intervention as possible to prevent future foreclosures. In fact, the Obama administration is on record as supporting the “reinflation” of the housing market. Personally, I think this type of federal intervention is insanity, and will ultimately end up costing the taxpayers even more in the form of hyper-inflation and the devaluation of the dollar, but thats a subject for a different time.

What does all this mean for Temecula prices ? And has TV hit bottom ?

Well, one thing the reduced supply has caused during the last few months is multiple offer bidding wars on the good properties. At a 4.5% interest rate, many more people can qualify for a loan now than back in 2008 when rates were around 6%. But here’s the catch…the Feds have indirectly brought down mortgage rates due to Bernanke’s decision to purchase over a trillion dollars of US treasuries. As the stock market improves, investors will take money out of the safety of US treasuries and put it into the stock market once again. In fact, that is already happening. As a result, the bond market will suffer, which means mortgage rates will go back up. As rates go up, fewer people will qualify for loans, which will result in a drop in demand for real estate.

So, if you really want to get a closer idea as to when the bottom will hit in Temecula, watch for a few things. Federal or state mandated foreclosure moratoriums – interest rates – and prices in Northern San Diego County. A year ago you couldn’t find a decent property in northern San Diego County for under 400K, while in Temecula there were literally hundreds on the market on any given day. But in the past six months prices have dropped significantly in North County, where you now can find a decent home in the 300K-350K range. Many people purchase in Temecula because it has been far more affordable – but the gap has narrowed in the last six months. The point is, Temecula Valley won’t reach bottom until AFTER northern San Diego county first reaches its own bottom – and that has yet to happen.

[CA renter]

Good post, Bob.

[CA renter]

Good post, Bob.

[CA renter]

Good post, Bob.

[CA renter]

Good post, Bob.

[CA renter]

Good post, Bob.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy:

RealtyTrac (RT) has a nice interactive map you can use for free. No need to prescribe because knowing which bank owns the property does you no good because TV is doing so good they aren’t even bothering to sell the foreclosures:) RT shows TV burning, so you hate it.

Your assessment of RT is the polar opposite of what experts are saying and what I have seen. Experts say there is a GIGANTIC shadow inventory of homes in CA the banks are hiding; TemeculaGuy says the foreclosures have been scooped up by happy buyers.

I have seen countless houses over the past three years pop-up on RT, never sell and silently disappear from RT. These are part of the shadow. inv.

I see houses pop-up on RT as pre-foreclosures and later become listed as sold at some high price when in fact they have merely been “sold” at a courthouse auction, back to the bank.

I know of three houses in one hood that have been working their way through foreclosure and never popped up on RT or any other foreclosure site I’ve seen.

The last house I looked at in February was a short sale, it was listed on RT. When it went into preforclosure it completely dropped off RT. No record of it at all.

For every legit “sold” house that RT lists as still a foreclosure I bet there are 50 foreclosures not listed anymore and several “solds” where the bank is the buyer.

You are flying headlong into a very strong wind with your bottom calling.
——————–

Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.

“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”
—————————

A second, punishing wave of home foreclosures is poised to strike just as the subprime mortgage mess ebbs, an economist in Kansas City said Thursday

Kelly Edmiston, senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Lenders laid the groundwork for this second foreclosure wave in 2005 and 2006, Edmiston said. Those years saw a surge in mortgages on which borrowers were required to make relatively small monthly payments for the first five years.

It was the height of the housing bubble, and buyers turned to such loans, called interest-only mortgages and payment-option adjustable-rate mortgages, as one way to jump into the runaway market.

Those low house payments are poised to reset to much higher levels in 2010 and 2011 and push more owners out of their homes, Edmiston said.

Subprime mortgages fueled their own foreclosure crisis earlier because their payments typically reset after only two years instead of five.

According to Edmiston, these next mortgage resets will mean even larger leaps in house payments than the subprime mortgage resets that forced one in five subprime borrowers with adjustable interest rates into foreclosure.

Kansas City’s housing market may suffer less from this second wave, Edmiston said. He said interest-only and payment-option mortgages weren’t as widely used here because housing remained more affordable than in California, Florida and similar markets.

The weak economy, however, is adding to this second foreclosure wave by pushing traditional mortgage customers into default, Edmiston said.

That combination leads him to suspect that the foreclosure problem isn’t about to go away.

————————-

Your TV RE bottom has some nasty issues to deal with all the way into 2011.

I believe no rational person could truly believe that:

1) A huge 80K CA shadow inventory
2) Tsunami of foreclosures coming
3) Foreclosure moratoriums manipulating supply
4) Worst CA unemployment since GD1 and ACCELERATING
5) Our nation imploding with 100 year old symbols of our nation’s manufacturing dyeing
6) Entire countries going bankrupt
7) Trillion$$ and Trillion$$ of derivatives still waiting to explode

means the bottom is in or almost in, or now is a good time to buy.

Unless they have skin in the game or stand to make a commision.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy:

RealtyTrac (RT) has a nice interactive map you can use for free. No need to prescribe because knowing which bank owns the property does you no good because TV is doing so good they aren’t even bothering to sell the foreclosures:) RT shows TV burning, so you hate it.

Your assessment of RT is the polar opposite of what experts are saying and what I have seen. Experts say there is a GIGANTIC shadow inventory of homes in CA the banks are hiding; TemeculaGuy says the foreclosures have been scooped up by happy buyers.

I have seen countless houses over the past three years pop-up on RT, never sell and silently disappear from RT. These are part of the shadow. inv.

I see houses pop-up on RT as pre-foreclosures and later become listed as sold at some high price when in fact they have merely been “sold” at a courthouse auction, back to the bank.

I know of three houses in one hood that have been working their way through foreclosure and never popped up on RT or any other foreclosure site I’ve seen.

The last house I looked at in February was a short sale, it was listed on RT. When it went into preforclosure it completely dropped off RT. No record of it at all.

For every legit “sold” house that RT lists as still a foreclosure I bet there are 50 foreclosures not listed anymore and several “solds” where the bank is the buyer.

You are flying headlong into a very strong wind with your bottom calling.
——————–

Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.

“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”
—————————

A second, punishing wave of home foreclosures is poised to strike just as the subprime mortgage mess ebbs, an economist in Kansas City said Thursday

Kelly Edmiston, senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Lenders laid the groundwork for this second foreclosure wave in 2005 and 2006, Edmiston said. Those years saw a surge in mortgages on which borrowers were required to make relatively small monthly payments for the first five years.

It was the height of the housing bubble, and buyers turned to such loans, called interest-only mortgages and payment-option adjustable-rate mortgages, as one way to jump into the runaway market.

Those low house payments are poised to reset to much higher levels in 2010 and 2011 and push more owners out of their homes, Edmiston said.

Subprime mortgages fueled their own foreclosure crisis earlier because their payments typically reset after only two years instead of five.

According to Edmiston, these next mortgage resets will mean even larger leaps in house payments than the subprime mortgage resets that forced one in five subprime borrowers with adjustable interest rates into foreclosure.

Kansas City’s housing market may suffer less from this second wave, Edmiston said. He said interest-only and payment-option mortgages weren’t as widely used here because housing remained more affordable than in California, Florida and similar markets.

The weak economy, however, is adding to this second foreclosure wave by pushing traditional mortgage customers into default, Edmiston said.

That combination leads him to suspect that the foreclosure problem isn’t about to go away.

————————-

Your TV RE bottom has some nasty issues to deal with all the way into 2011.

I believe no rational person could truly believe that:

1) A huge 80K CA shadow inventory
2) Tsunami of foreclosures coming
3) Foreclosure moratoriums manipulating supply
4) Worst CA unemployment since GD1 and ACCELERATING
5) Our nation imploding with 100 year old symbols of our nation’s manufacturing dyeing
6) Entire countries going bankrupt
7) Trillion$$ and Trillion$$ of derivatives still waiting to explode

means the bottom is in or almost in, or now is a good time to buy.

Unless they have skin in the game or stand to make a commision.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy:

RealtyTrac (RT) has a nice interactive map you can use for free. No need to prescribe because knowing which bank owns the property does you no good because TV is doing so good they aren’t even bothering to sell the foreclosures:) RT shows TV burning, so you hate it.

Your assessment of RT is the polar opposite of what experts are saying and what I have seen. Experts say there is a GIGANTIC shadow inventory of homes in CA the banks are hiding; TemeculaGuy says the foreclosures have been scooped up by happy buyers.

I have seen countless houses over the past three years pop-up on RT, never sell and silently disappear from RT. These are part of the shadow. inv.

I see houses pop-up on RT as pre-foreclosures and later become listed as sold at some high price when in fact they have merely been “sold” at a courthouse auction, back to the bank.

I know of three houses in one hood that have been working their way through foreclosure and never popped up on RT or any other foreclosure site I’ve seen.

The last house I looked at in February was a short sale, it was listed on RT. When it went into preforclosure it completely dropped off RT. No record of it at all.

For every legit “sold” house that RT lists as still a foreclosure I bet there are 50 foreclosures not listed anymore and several “solds” where the bank is the buyer.

You are flying headlong into a very strong wind with your bottom calling.
——————–

Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.

“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”
—————————

A second, punishing wave of home foreclosures is poised to strike just as the subprime mortgage mess ebbs, an economist in Kansas City said Thursday

Kelly Edmiston, senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Lenders laid the groundwork for this second foreclosure wave in 2005 and 2006, Edmiston said. Those years saw a surge in mortgages on which borrowers were required to make relatively small monthly payments for the first five years.

It was the height of the housing bubble, and buyers turned to such loans, called interest-only mortgages and payment-option adjustable-rate mortgages, as one way to jump into the runaway market.

Those low house payments are poised to reset to much higher levels in 2010 and 2011 and push more owners out of their homes, Edmiston said.

Subprime mortgages fueled their own foreclosure crisis earlier because their payments typically reset after only two years instead of five.

According to Edmiston, these next mortgage resets will mean even larger leaps in house payments than the subprime mortgage resets that forced one in five subprime borrowers with adjustable interest rates into foreclosure.

Kansas City’s housing market may suffer less from this second wave, Edmiston said. He said interest-only and payment-option mortgages weren’t as widely used here because housing remained more affordable than in California, Florida and similar markets.

The weak economy, however, is adding to this second foreclosure wave by pushing traditional mortgage customers into default, Edmiston said.

That combination leads him to suspect that the foreclosure problem isn’t about to go away.

————————-

Your TV RE bottom has some nasty issues to deal with all the way into 2011.

I believe no rational person could truly believe that:

1) A huge 80K CA shadow inventory
2) Tsunami of foreclosures coming
3) Foreclosure moratoriums manipulating supply
4) Worst CA unemployment since GD1 and ACCELERATING
5) Our nation imploding with 100 year old symbols of our nation’s manufacturing dyeing
6) Entire countries going bankrupt
7) Trillion$$ and Trillion$$ of derivatives still waiting to explode

means the bottom is in or almost in, or now is a good time to buy.

Unless they have skin in the game or stand to make a commision.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy:

RealtyTrac (RT) has a nice interactive map you can use for free. No need to prescribe because knowing which bank owns the property does you no good because TV is doing so good they aren’t even bothering to sell the foreclosures:) RT shows TV burning, so you hate it.

Your assessment of RT is the polar opposite of what experts are saying and what I have seen. Experts say there is a GIGANTIC shadow inventory of homes in CA the banks are hiding; TemeculaGuy says the foreclosures have been scooped up by happy buyers.

I have seen countless houses over the past three years pop-up on RT, never sell and silently disappear from RT. These are part of the shadow. inv.

I see houses pop-up on RT as pre-foreclosures and later become listed as sold at some high price when in fact they have merely been “sold” at a courthouse auction, back to the bank.

I know of three houses in one hood that have been working their way through foreclosure and never popped up on RT or any other foreclosure site I’ve seen.

The last house I looked at in February was a short sale, it was listed on RT. When it went into preforclosure it completely dropped off RT. No record of it at all.

For every legit “sold” house that RT lists as still a foreclosure I bet there are 50 foreclosures not listed anymore and several “solds” where the bank is the buyer.

You are flying headlong into a very strong wind with your bottom calling.
——————–

Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.

“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”
—————————

A second, punishing wave of home foreclosures is poised to strike just as the subprime mortgage mess ebbs, an economist in Kansas City said Thursday

Kelly Edmiston, senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Lenders laid the groundwork for this second foreclosure wave in 2005 and 2006, Edmiston said. Those years saw a surge in mortgages on which borrowers were required to make relatively small monthly payments for the first five years.

It was the height of the housing bubble, and buyers turned to such loans, called interest-only mortgages and payment-option adjustable-rate mortgages, as one way to jump into the runaway market.

Those low house payments are poised to reset to much higher levels in 2010 and 2011 and push more owners out of their homes, Edmiston said.

Subprime mortgages fueled their own foreclosure crisis earlier because their payments typically reset after only two years instead of five.

According to Edmiston, these next mortgage resets will mean even larger leaps in house payments than the subprime mortgage resets that forced one in five subprime borrowers with adjustable interest rates into foreclosure.

Kansas City’s housing market may suffer less from this second wave, Edmiston said. He said interest-only and payment-option mortgages weren’t as widely used here because housing remained more affordable than in California, Florida and similar markets.

The weak economy, however, is adding to this second foreclosure wave by pushing traditional mortgage customers into default, Edmiston said.

That combination leads him to suspect that the foreclosure problem isn’t about to go away.

————————-

Your TV RE bottom has some nasty issues to deal with all the way into 2011.

I believe no rational person could truly believe that:

1) A huge 80K CA shadow inventory
2) Tsunami of foreclosures coming
3) Foreclosure moratoriums manipulating supply
4) Worst CA unemployment since GD1 and ACCELERATING
5) Our nation imploding with 100 year old symbols of our nation’s manufacturing dyeing
6) Entire countries going bankrupt
7) Trillion$$ and Trillion$$ of derivatives still waiting to explode

means the bottom is in or almost in, or now is a good time to buy.

Unless they have skin in the game or stand to make a commision.

[Rt.66]

TemeculaGuy:

RealtyTrac (RT) has a nice interactive map you can use for free. No need to prescribe because knowing which bank owns the property does you no good because TV is doing so good they aren’t even bothering to sell the foreclosures:) RT shows TV burning, so you hate it.

Your assessment of RT is the polar opposite of what experts are saying and what I have seen. Experts say there is a GIGANTIC shadow inventory of homes in CA the banks are hiding; TemeculaGuy says the foreclosures have been scooped up by happy buyers.

I have seen countless houses over the past three years pop-up on RT, never sell and silently disappear from RT. These are part of the shadow. inv.

I see houses pop-up on RT as pre-foreclosures and later become listed as sold at some high price when in fact they have merely been “sold” at a courthouse auction, back to the bank.

I know of three houses in one hood that have been working their way through foreclosure and never popped up on RT or any other foreclosure site I’ve seen.

The last house I looked at in February was a short sale, it was listed on RT. When it went into preforclosure it completely dropped off RT. No record of it at all.

For every legit “sold” house that RT lists as still a foreclosure I bet there are 50 foreclosures not listed anymore and several “solds” where the bank is the buyer.

You are flying headlong into a very strong wind with your bottom calling.
——————–

Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council.

“I expect the economy will continue to decline,” with “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers said today on “Fox News Sunday.”
—————————

A second, punishing wave of home foreclosures is poised to strike just as the subprime mortgage mess ebbs, an economist in Kansas City said Thursday

Kelly Edmiston, senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Lenders laid the groundwork for this second foreclosure wave in 2005 and 2006, Edmiston said. Those years saw a surge in mortgages on which borrowers were required to make relatively small monthly payments for the first five years.

It was the height of the housing bubble, and buyers turned to such loans, called interest-only mortgages and payment-option adjustable-rate mortgages, as one way to jump into the runaway market.

Those low house payments are poised to reset to much higher levels in 2010 and 2011 and push more owners out of their homes, Edmiston said.

Subprime mortgages fueled their own foreclosure crisis earlier because their payments typically reset after only two years instead of five.

According to Edmiston, these next mortgage resets will mean even larger leaps in house payments than the subprime mortgage resets that forced one in five subprime borrowers with adjustable interest rates into foreclosure.

Kansas City’s housing market may suffer less from this second wave, Edmiston said. He said interest-only and payment-option mortgages weren’t as widely used here because housing remained more affordable than in California, Florida and similar markets.

The weak economy, however, is adding to this second foreclosure wave by pushing traditional mortgage customers into default, Edmiston said.

That combination leads him to suspect that the foreclosure problem isn’t about to go away.

————————-

Your TV RE bottom has some nasty issues to deal with all the way into 2011.

I believe no rational person could truly believe that:

1) A huge 80K CA shadow inventory
2) Tsunami of foreclosures coming
3) Foreclosure moratoriums manipulating supply
4) Worst CA unemployment since GD1 and ACCELERATING
5) Our nation imploding with 100 year old symbols of our nation’s manufacturing dyeing
6) Entire countries going bankrupt
7) Trillion$$ and Trillion$$ of derivatives still waiting to explode

means the bottom is in or almost in, or now is a good time to buy.

Unless they have skin in the game or stand to make a commision.

[sdrealtor]

I have follwed RealtyTrac and their data for years. I would have stepped up and said it but as usual TG said it better than I ever could. Here goes anyway.

I am an expert and RealtyTrac blows!

[sdrealtor]

I have follwed RealtyTrac and their data for years. I would have stepped up and said it but as usual TG said it better than I ever could. Here goes anyway.

I am an expert and RealtyTrac blows!

[sdrealtor]

I have follwed RealtyTrac and their data for years. I would have stepped up and said it but as usual TG said it better than I ever could. Here goes anyway.

I am an expert and RealtyTrac blows!

[sdrealtor]

I have follwed RealtyTrac and their data for years. I would have stepped up and said it but as usual TG said it better than I ever could. Here goes anyway.

I am an expert and RealtyTrac blows!

[Author]

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