Arizona Vs. California?

[SK in CV]

[quote=bearishgurl]
sdduuuude, can I just ask you what a “bachelor’s degree” has to do with the price of tea in China?

[/quote]

It has nothing to do with the tea in China. It does have a lot to do with determining good schools. Neighborhoods with parents that have higher educational achievement tend to be better than those with lower educational achievement. Doesn’t mean the houses are any better. Doesn’t mean the neighbors will be nicer. Doesn’t mean there will more or less appreciation. But it IS relevant for school achievement.

Scottsdale is not Santee. It is not Lakeside. It may be similarly priced (though I suspect Scottsdale may be lower when comparing apples to apples), but the demographics are nothing alike.

[MistaVista]

First and foremost I would like to thank all of the people who contributed to helping me with the decision process, granted nothing has been decided yet. In regards to location we are not set on Scottsdale proper, but exploring all options in the surrounding area. Ultimately the job market, should we decide to move will influence location. Currently after reading one Piggs post am I really interested in Anthem. It looks like a great place to raise a young family. Price ranges are from 265K to $330k. The boat argument is moot since it would be a smaller boat I could store in the garage. I would also say the argument of Santee, Ramona, Lakeside is also irrelevant and was fabricated to prove a point. Lets be honest these cities suck ( no offense to current residents) and the weather is comparable to AZ. In addition anyone who has driven during rush hours knows the commutes would be horrendous and one would lose roughly 2 hours of the day 5 days a week. Lastly the elementary school rankings for these cities range from 4 to 8 out of 10, with median around 6 (www.schoolratings.com). While the areas we are focused on and can afford in AZ are 9’s and 10’s. As I mentioned to the OP, should we stay in CA I am fine with a much smaller house 3/2 1200sq. ft. I strongly feel if you are going to live here the goal is not to be in your house as much possible, where as in AZ sometimes this is unavoidable. The challenge to stay in CA is not over extending ($450k) to get into a house that is in a somewhat desirable location that also needs 100k in work. This would be at an unfavorable debt to income ratio and result in being house poor like so many of our friends. Key in that the current sales territory and job locations eliminates much of North county and south county and the current bidding wars going on for these first time buyer or investment properties and it is very discouraging for young families. While BG wants to point out everything that is wrong with the Gen Xers, I disagree we are making smart conservative decisions not using real estate as an ATM and over extending hoping to gain equity. Also considering BG has no idea of my families background, college credentials, or experience it as rather bold assumption to indicate what can and can’t be made in regards to salaries in AZ. Additional factors that concern me about staying in CA are the current governments inability to manage their finances, attitudes toward business’s, and the state of our schools system. There is a long road ahead for CA even if things go right. I am not a conservative but a moderate, and I feel strongly this state is headed in a bad direction. Ultimately its the thirty somethings like my self and our children who are going to foot the bill. AZ being more conservative makes it very appealing in that regard. The hardest decision is leaving behind family and good friends which is a decision that will have to be made. There is definitely an opportunity cost to be here in this beautiful state and I just not sure if I willing to pay it anymore. However you never now what could happen, there’s always the lottery and the chances some other employer call offering more $$. Let me just address this to before BG tries top argue this point. My family and I live within or means but as anyone who has a young family know things are not cheap here. We use an affordable childcare provider and the rates is about $2200/mo. while rates in AZ tend to be about $1600/mo. For out little house with a yard and driveway we pay $2000/mo., granted it is by the beach but this is the sacrifice we make in square footage for location. However look around clairemont, Tierra Santa, etc this is about the going rate for a rental.With no business to write off or mortgage interest it leaves us with limited deductions and a tax rate in the upper 20% to low 30%. Tack on food, insurance, gas, etc. My point is it is really difficult to make it here with a family if you don’t have joint income of over $150k. Once again thank you all for your assistance and what ever the future holds may it bring you happiness.

[an]

David, just throwing this out, but have you looked at Mira Mesa? You mentioned you worked in Sorrento Valley. Commute would be a breeze. Schools are 8-10, if you stay on the West side. MMHS has the 2nd highest API sore in SDUSD, after SRHS. Yes, today, it’s a little higher than your limit of $350k, they’re around $400-430k for a decently remodeled 4/2, 1400-1600 sq-ft single story.

[MistaVista]

We actually have checked it out. the challenge is we need to keep the amount borrowed under $417k since once you go above it is considered a jumbo. Going over requires 10% down to avoid having to go with an FHA loan. the PMI would kill us with an FHA. we would be able to 5% for anything under $417 borrowed. basically it would put us right at the top of our price range depending on taxes and if there is an HOA for the property. I am estimating about 3k/mo. for the overall cost.

[spdrun]

5% down – hope you have 4x that much in cash for a rainy day. Otherwise, party like it’s 2006, BABY! Wonder what will happen if you need some major capital repairs or run into some medical expenses.

If you’re spending all your cash, you should be looking for 2 bdr condos in the $200k range.

[sdduuuude]

David – what a great post !

As an aside – you might want to change your username to just “davidaaronhart” to get your email address off the site. If you change it, it gets changed in all your posts.

[quote=davidaaronhart]Lets be honest these cities suck (no offense to current residents) and the weather is comparable to AZ.[/quote]

I was trying to be nice, but – yeah, they do suck. I didn’t even consider of the commute from Ramona, but I shiver to think.

[quote=davidaaronhart]I strongly feel if you are going to live here the goal is not to be in your house as much possible, where as in AZ sometimes this is unavoidable.[/quote]

You’d be surprised, actually. I don’t know if you are into physics at all, but the heat capacity of water is extremely high. That means – if you have a swimming pool, you can be outside all day and be very comfortable, if not completely content. And you can be outside more of the year in Phoenix than here. And, most people are scantily-clad. Yay.

[quote=davidaaronhart]Also considering BG has no idea of my families background, college credentials, or experience it as rather bold assumption to indicate what can and can’t be made in regards to salaries in AZ.[/quote]

Wasn’t gonna go there but I’m happy you brought it up. Just because you understand what an “unfavorable debt to income ratio” is doesn’t mean you are “living paycheck to paycheck.”

[quote=davidaaronhart]The hardest decision is leaving behind family and good friends[/quote]

Southwest Airlines is your friend. And, if you take turns, you only have to make the trip once to see your friends twice. The drive aint so bad, either. We road-tripped from SD to Phoenix for July 4th once on a whim to visit friends. Once.

Whenever people move to San Diego, the Piggs’ advice is usually “rent for a while” before buying. I suppose that applies to a Phoenix move also. Take a year to shop around, learn the neighborhoods, settle in to your job before buying. Would suck to move to AZ, buy a house, not like it, move back to SD and lose 6% on the transaction cost.

Best of luck.

[spdrun]

Lot of scantily-clad people in Phoenix. As a heavily car-oriented city with a lot of fatties, they’re generally not the kind of people who SHOULD be scantily-clad.

[an]

[quote=davidaaronhart]We actually have checked it out. the challenge is we need to keep the amount borrowed under $417k since once you go above it is considered a jumbo. Going over requires 10% down to avoid having to go with an FHA loan. the PMI would kill us with an FHA. we would be able to 5% for anything under $417 borrowed. basically it would put us right at the top of our price range depending on taxes and if there is an HOA for the property. I am estimating about 3k/mo. for the overall cost.[/quote]
Assuming $410k, your P+I would be ~$1800. Your PITI would be $2300/month. Most places in Mira Mesa doesn’t have HOA. Those that do are more expensive or are on the east side of MM. HOA in MM are no more than $50/month. Working in Sorrento, your gas cost would go down drastically, not to mention having an option to bike to work. There’s also a new Elementary school that’s being built in the South West part of Mira Mesa if that matters to you. I don’t know your tax bracket but before any deduction, we’re talking about at most $2400/month. That’s far from the $3k/month you’re estimating.

[livinincali]

[quote=AN][quote=davidaaronhart]We actually have checked it out. the challenge is we need to keep the amount borrowed under $417k since once you go above it is considered a jumbo. Going over requires 10% down to avoid having to go with an FHA loan. the PMI would kill us with an FHA. we would be able to 5% for anything under $417 borrowed. basically it would put us right at the top of our price range depending on taxes and if there is an HOA for the property. I am estimating about 3k/mo. for the overall cost.[/quote]
Assuming $410k, your P+I would be ~$1800. Your PITI would be $2300/month. Most places in Mira Mesa doesn’t have HOA. Those that do are more expensive or are on the east side of MM. HOA in MM are no more than $50/month. Working in Sorrento, your gas cost would go down drastically, not to mention having an option to bike to work. There’s also a new Elementary school that’s being built in the South West part of Mira Mesa if that matters to you. I don’t know your tax bracket but before any deduction, we’re talking about at most $2400/month. That’s far from the $3k/month you’re estimating.[/quote]

For an FHA loan you have to add in the 1.25 purchase price Mortgage Insurance Premium which amounts to another $400/mo for a $410K loan. Still less than $3000/mo but awfully close.

[an]

[quote=livinincali]For an FHA loan you have to add in the 1.25 purchase price Mortgage Insurance Premium which amounts to another $400/mo for a $410K loan. Still less than $3000/mo but awfully close.[/quote]
I use absolute mortgage to get the quick number. They didn’t say it’s a FHA loan. Just a 30 Year Conforming Fixed and their monthly payment is around $1800. I’m guessing they didn’t add PMI either. You’re right, if it’s FHA, then you have to add MIP. I don’t know how much those are, so I’m not going to guess. Also, it’s $390k loan, since he’s putting down 5%. AIMLOAN also have a few 30 years program without PMI through Homepath or upfront PMI: https://aimloan.mortgagewebcenter.com/CheckRates/GreatRates.asp?PID=23&r=1

[bearishgurl]

[quote=dhart760]The boat argument is moot since it would be a smaller boat I could store in the garage.

I would also say the argument of Santee, Ramona, Lakeside is also irrelevant and was fabricated to prove a point. Lets be honest these cities suck ( no offense to current residents) and the weather is comparable to AZ. In addition anyone who has driven during rush hours knows the commutes would be horrendous and one would lose roughly 2 hours of the day 5 days a week.

Lastly the elementary school rankings for these cities range from 4 to 8 out of 10, with median around 6 (www.schoolratings.com). [/quote]

david, sounds like you got erroneous info again. Here are the correct 2012 API scores for Santee, Ramona and Lakeside:

Santee Elementary Schools (K-8)

Prospect Avenue 849
Cajon Park 854
Hill Creek 858
Chet F. Harritt 872
Carlton Oaks 879
Carlton Hills 894
Pepper Drive 895
Rio Seco 895
Sycamore Canyon 950

Santee High Schools (9-12)

Santana 809
West Hills 812

Ramona Elementary Schools (K-6)
Ramona 807
Hanson 810
Barnett 847
Mt. Woodson 880
James Dukes 906

Ramona Middle School (7-8)
Olive Pierce Middle 855

Ramona High School (9-12)
Ramona 772

Lakeside Elementary Schools (K-6)
Winter Gardens 724
Tierra Del Sol 789
Lindo Park 799
Lemon Crest 791
Lakeside Farms 832
Lakeview 837

Lakeside Middle School (7-8)
Lakeside 801

Lakeside High School (9-12)
El Capitan 736

See: http://api.cde.ca.gov/reports/page2.asp?subject=API&level=School&submit1=submit

Granted, Lakeside has lower-scoring schools and I suggested this area to park your boat in because you stated that part of the reason you wanted to move to AZ was to find someplace to park your boat. Since your boat is small enough to park on the side of the driveway (if no HOA) or in the garage, the subject is moot.

I chose Ramona because your earlier post stated you and/or your spouse worked in RB and again, you needed to park a boat. Ramona can be reached in ~30 minutes through the back of Poway/RB which is mostly 4 lane hwy.

However, I do not now feel that a nice Ramona spread is doable for your family given your latest post.

Santee is VERY convenient to RB and has SOLID school scores in relation to its home prices. An 835 and up CA API score is VERY satisfactory for an elementary school and nearly excellent for a HS. You won’t find this solid of API scores in the SD beach areas and certainly not in SDUSD consistently. And you cannot qualify to buy an SFR in the attendance areas of those over-900-scoring elementary schools in North, South and East County and very select neighborhoods within SDUSD. I just checked the avail SFR inventory in Santee for <=$350K which was about half shorts (which means they could easily sell for more than $350K). The only property I could find in the Sycamore Cyn Elem (API 950) attendance area was a short in need of some repair which was sold before it hit the MLS. As I stated, ALL the Elem School scores in Santee are VERY satisfactory and the shopping is very good and convenient there as well. It has occurred to me that you could make application for a (cheaper) rental in an elem school attendance area scoring 850 and up if you decide to stay and attempt to save more money towards a future home purchase. I had assumed you were a traditional 20%-down buyer and since you now indicate you have only ~5% down, that changes a lot of things. I now believe it would difficult for you to compete for a SS or many "traditional sales"in San Diego County in the current market, IMHO. [quote=dhart760]While the areas we are focused on and can afford in AZ are 9's and 10's. [/quote] How does one check school scores in AZ ... as as apples-to-apples comparison of CA API scores? [quote=dhart760]As I mentioned to the OP, should we stay in CA I am fine with a much smaller house 3/2 1200sq. ft. I strongly feel if you are going to live here the goal is not to be in your house as much possible, where as in AZ sometimes this is unavoidable. The challenge to stay in CA is not over extending ($450k) to get into a house that is in a somewhat desirable location that also needs 100k in work. [/quote]

david, based upon your latest post, I don’t think you are in a position to “choose” the “desirability” of the location in the current market in your price range. That will come later when you have gained some equity with at least one successful RE sale. The phrase “…needing “100K of work” is purely subjective. IOW, what YOU may think needs “100K in work” might only need $5-$8K in work in another buyers eyes, who might move in at COE and do the work later.

At the $350K price range with ~5% down, you are not in a category to be too choosy in this regard, IMHO.

[quote=dhart760]We use an affordable childcare provider and the rates is about $2200/mo. while rates in AZ tend to be about $1600/mo. For out little house with a yard and driveway we pay $2000/mo., granted it is by the beach but this is the sacrifice we make in square footage for location. However look around clairemont, Tierra Santa, etc this is about the going rate for a rental. [/quote]

david, I’m sure you’re aware that Clairemont and Tierrasanta are out of your price range for an SFR.

It was actually your “friend,” sdsurfer who, told us that you were sick of “living paycheck-to-paycheck.”:)

Your daycare expense of $2200 mo is ASTOUNDING and I’m surmising it is for two kids. In any case, I’m sure you can find a home day care situation for $1500 mo or less for the first child, especially if he/she is already trained.

http://www.crs.ymca.org/programs/resource-and-referral/child-care-referrals.html

Remember that even if you stayed in SD, your kid(s) would eventually go to school. If you choose a school attendance area carefully to pick an elementary school that still has DASH or a “six to six” program, you can get low cost after-school care for about ~$60 per week, which includes homework help. These programs are conducted at the school sites.

Your rent of $2000 is VERY high for 1000 sf. Based upon your posts, your exorbitant daycare and rent expenses are the main reasons why you have been unable to save a bigger downpayment to properly compete as a RE buyer in SD, IMHO.

For the above reasons, I now feel that you are a very “borderline” buyer for an unencumbered (no HOA/MR) SFR in the $350K range in SD County.

Thanks for your honest clarifications in your last post. I’m still going to opine that I don’t think you’ll be able to make enough sales proceeds off a home purchase in the PHX area to come back to SD and properly “compete” for the home you will want to live in, which will undoubtedly be higher-priced than it is today. Perhaps a move there will enable your family to save more money, if you can keep your PITI under $2000, not get stuck with too many repairs, reduce your daycare expense by at least $600 per month and your spouse can land and keep a $50K job there.

Whether you end up staying or moving, I now think you should endeavor to find something to rent for no more than $1600 mo. You can rent a 1100-1400 sf house in MANY areas in the city and county of SD for ~$1600.

Best of luck to you and your family.

[ctr70]

I have to chime in and say I would not be very excited to wake up every day and say, “wow I live in Lakeside or Ramona”. Lakeside and Ramona are not exactly cool & breezy in the summers either (though admittedly much cooler than Phoenix). And I would doubt $350k buys you much out there anyway right now if you really investigated it. Especially when you add in the cost of all the fix up you would have to do on an older property. If I was living in SD I would definitely choose to rent in a much nicer, higher end, closer to the coast communities or I 15 corridor (Scripps, PQ, RB, etc..) with a much more educated crowd vs. buying in Lakeside or Ramona.

True you can get some space out in these communities and elbow room, and if you want to be in a semi rural area with a very blue collar working class vibe with lot’s of “fine” fast food cuisine and old strip centers with liquor stores, it may work. But they just don’t have this nice feel like it’s a place you would really aspire to be. Most educated people are just not going to want to live in East County or Old Chula Vista no matter how much bearishgirl promotes them:) Just ain’t gonna happen. They are just flat out kinda dumpy across the board no matter how you slice it.

Also Arizona in summer you can escape up to the White Mountains on the New Mexico border around Alpine that are cool in the summer, you can go up to the San Juans in SW Colorado near Durango, Lake Powell, Flagstaff, etc…

For the record I personally would choose a smaller place to rent close to coast in SD over AZ if given the choice. But I don’t have kids. But I do not think AZ is that bad as long as you have a plan for those 4 summer mos of pure hell. And I think you can get a WAY, WAY nicer house there than SD.

Even though I would choose SD over AZ if given the choice, I think the ocean is overrated. I don’t live in SD anymore, but when I did I only went there say maybe twice a month and I don’t miss it at all. I don’t see why people go so gah gah over it. I guess maybe if you are a super avid surfer or something. But to me it’s not that great since the water is too cold to swim 12 mos a year and the sand is not like HI, FL or Carribean sand. Also there is only one stretch of beach that has been preserved (Torrey Pines). Most of the rest are so developed with concrete right to the edge and fast food restaurants, traffic and crowds, to me it’s just not the end all and be all at all. Give me mountains, snow, rivers, meadows, creeks, trees over those crowded cold water beaches any day.

[spdrun]

What is the problem with just buying a 2 or 3 bedroom condo and parking the RV and/or boat somewhere else? I lived in a 2-bedroom townhouse with my family in high school, and wasn’t the worse for it. If anything, if maintenance is included in the costs, it frees you up a little since you can ditch the place for a month (summer trip?) without worrying about your shrubberies.

Why does everyone need a detached house with 3000 sf and a big lot to waste time on cleaning up?

[bearishgurl]

ctr is right. There are several areas to escape the heat in PHX but they are 5-8 hours drive away and there is only air service to the bottom of San Juans via PHX to DRO on US Airways.

In that amount of time, david and his family could be back in SD to visit relatives.

ctr is in error about Ramona, but in any case, it is likely too expensive for this family. Like Santee, several “big box stores” and supermarkets have come into there in recent years. It is VERY modern now.

In addition, there are MANY white-collar professionals residing in Santee and Ramona. Not sure about Lakeside, but the smell of pines (gathered around large boulders in the front yard) is absolutely incredible there in the winters. Lots of wildlife abound in the small hills around Barona Indian Reservation (which is also partly reesidential). There is a LOT to be said for having a spread to park your toys on sans HOAs telling a homeowner what they can and can’t do. I will agree that the bulk of the Lakeside crowd are probably older and have lived there most or all of their lives.

I DID manage to take a closer look on Google Maps at the Sycamore Cyn finger from Santee to the back side of Miramar MCAS yesterday. I had not realized it but its main road now goes all the way into the back of Scripps Ranch. I’m surmising it is two-lane most of the way and passes a large landfill to the west which is presumably supposed to be expanded at some point.

Does anyone know the length/time of the drive between Sycamore Cyn (Santee) and Rancho Bernardo? How many traffic lights are there through this maze? I would think as one got towards the back on SR in the morning, people would be leaving their homes to catch I-15 and a LOT of traffic might join as they were making their way to RB.

But perhaps I’m mistaken and its only a 20-minute drive.

If actually open for thru traffic, this represents non-fwy access between Santee and SR/RB/Poway biz parks. That’s huge!

david, Sycamore Cyn (Santee) is less than 30 years old and its SC Elementary School has a 950 API score. You won’t be able to find that consistently even in the most “sought-after” family areas in SD County or even if you could afford to buy in Scripps (SDUSD)!

Here’s a short I found yesterday in SC, asking $299K w/a 14K+ lot!:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130003028-10772_Strathmore_Dr_Santee_CA_92071

And here’s a recent sold comp there (almost the same size but 8K lot) which sold (fixed up) for $419K on 2/5/13:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130001659-92071

This is why I think the “opening bid” price of $299K on Strathmore Drive will be bid up quite a bit regardless of current condition and but primarily due to lot size.

It would seem to me that a buyer putting just 5% down (such as david) wouldn’t have a chance at a SFR in this coveted area… but who knows?

As of yesterday, there were currently six other <$350K non-shorts (or "traditional" SFR listings) in Santee, all ~50 years old and ranging in price from $250K to $340K. All but two were in a "Carlton Hills" subdivision and three of them needed some work. Out of those three, one was a FNMA Homepath property (the largest one at 1600 sf) which needed extensive work but FNMA would loan the buyer the funds to rehab it.

I didn’t see too many flips there but haven’t viewed all the sold comps yet. I found my “Santee study” to be very interesting and can now see why buy-to-let investors like the area so much.

Conclusion: Sycamore Cyn is borderline for the OP to buy into but other parts of Santee are possibly very doable … depending on owner and competition.

****************************************

ctr, you might be interested to know that “Old Chula Vista” (~1 mile from the bayfront) has been a “flipper’s dream” for almost three years now 🙂 These flipped houses around me sell like hotcakes! Cleaned-up homes that have been rentals for decades lift ALL boats. I’m happy to see that there are people with the wherewithal to do this as it helps the values of ALL surrounding owners!

We just witnessed the recent bombing of the old power plant at the bottom of SD Bay :=0

http://www.inquisitr.com/507149/power-plant-imploded-in-order-to-build-city-park-video/

Now that that eyesore is gone, the South Bay region can only go up from here :=]

[spdrun]

Wrong about places to escape the heat being 5-8 hr away from Phoenix. Prescott is at 5000 ft and is generally in the 80s in Summer — 1.5 to 2.5 hr drive away depending on traffic on the 17N.

Basically, slightly less time than it takes me to get up into the Catskills.

[Author]

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