Arizona Vs. California?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flyer] . . . Depending on where you will be working, housing choices in the Valley, like Ahwatukee, Chandler (Ocotillo) Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Carefree, Desert Ridge and the Anthem developments (some here are “pricey,”) are great for families.

The bottom line is AZ is what it is. . . .[/quote]

Even flyer (fmr AZ resident) acknowledges that those “sprawling ranch” enclaves described by “david” are “pricey.”

[quote=davidaaronhart…]1) Housing cost- For $350k I can purchase a newer home with 4-5 bdrms, and 3 plus baths, with a pool and a 3 car garage for my boat ;)…[/quote]

david, where is the 4-5/3/3 located in or near PHX for $350K? And if it is NOT in PHX, how many miles away is it??

[quote=flyer]. . . In fact, you’ll probably save enough to be able to return to San Diego someday if you so choose.

IMO, this is a far better plan for a young family than burning up everything they make during their peak earning years–living paycheck to paycheck in CA–then ending up with nothing saved in their retirement years.[/quote]

I disagree with flyer on this issue. This assumption presumes a few things that likely will not take place, IMHO:

a) that RE values in CA coastal counties will stay stagnant or fall in the coming years;

b) that a CA worker moving to AZ is going to make more money there than if they stayed in their jobs in a CA coastal county; and

c) that one can make a profit in the future on a house they buy, maintain and possibly improve in the (grossly overbuilt) PHX area in the coming years; and

d) that the family who moves to AZ, by hook or crook, who DOES end up having more discretionary income every month isn’t going to spend it (on water/desert toys and trips to SD to the “beach” to get out of the heat) and end up living from “paycheck to paycheck” anyway :=]

[all]

[[email protected]] I have no desire to sit in traffic for multiple hours a day commuting back and forth from Rancho Bernardo. I am curious as to where these top notch schools are where one can find a Single family home for $350k in San Diego County? [/quote]

I’m not sure if you work in RB or your commute from/to RB would take hours (I live in that area. My commute to San Marcos was 20-25min, my current commute to downtown SD is 30-35 min).

This one is in RB’s High Country West, sold for $360K last Summer: http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/15972-Turtleback-Rd-92127/home/4624064

[bearishgurl]

[quote=davidaaronhart…]I completely disagree with some of your statements. I think any buyer with children should be concerned with teacher pensions. Currently CA ranks 47th in spending per student and this coincidentally strongly relates to achievement levels. Do you think the schools here are going to get better or worse? I have lived away from the beach and I did miss it, but that being said I also found many things to do that were just as fun. I have surfed for the last 25 years and I know i am not going pro anytime soon, its just another hobby I have lots of them. currently financial stabilty and my children are more important. I have no desire to sit in traffic for multiple hours a day commuting back and forth from Rancho Bernardo. I am curious as to where these top notch schools are where one can find a Single family home for $350k in San Diego County? I am also curious for someone who has never lived somewhere how do you know the traffic is horrendous? Lastly in regards to wages there are far more companies leaving California than there are coming here to setup shop. How do you think that is going to effect the market longterm?[/quote]

david, do you know the formula used to calculate teacher pensions in AZ school districts?

I have an aunt who taught in “Buckeye” (what was once very tiny … now part of the PHX exurban “megalopolis”) for 34 years. Now retired, she and her spouse were able to buy a HUGE spread in a “flyover southwest state” and now “farm” a few goats and poultry in their “leisure.” She also built a cedar art studio/gallery in a wing in their house, where she indulges her lifetime oil-painting hobby.

Even though food, utilities and property taxes are expensive (by CA standards) where they now live, neither she nor her spouse will ever have to go to work another day in their lives, thanks to her “AZ teacher pension” :=D

Two summers ago, she took us in her pickup for a 2+ hour grand tour of all of her leased grazing land :=D

They made enough by selling their long-owned Buckeye parcels to a residential builder (who immed subdivided it) to buy the 100+ AC property in rural flyover America. Those days are now gone in the (grossly overbuilt) PHX area.

Oh, one thing she DID tell me about the school where she taught was that even with all the federal money it received for educating Native American children (from on and off reservations), many of her students had so many “life issues” that it was difficult for them to pay attention in class, get their work done and their graduation rate was dismal. She told me that this problem was prevalent in schools all over the state.

Of course, nearly ALL of them were on the “free breakfast and lunch” program and all the teachers were trained in various “social work” functions so they could direct the parents/guardians of their students to the appropriate agency(s) for assistance.

I drive through PHX up to eight times per year (4 RT’s to rural “flyover America”), either staying on I-10 to Las Cruces, NM or connecting with I-17 to Flagstaff to I-40 (thru to ABQ, NM for the night). I’ve had to get off both I-10 and I-17 multiple times in PHX (even on a Sunday) and take surface streets to the next fwy due to sitting still for 45 mins + in miles-long traffic jams and accidents.

david, are you stating here that you only tried to find a $350K property in and around Rancho Bernardo? Have you investigated other, lesser-expensive areas in SD County which would be up to a ~30 min commute for you to RB? And how far did you plan to commute to work in AZ if you lived in that 4-5/3/3 *newer* house that you posted about? Of course, you have no idea how far your spouse would have to commute in PHX, because she doesn’t even have a job there yet. Do you?

Why don’t you ask yourself what kind of jobs (low-paying boiler-room, anyone?) CA “lost” to the state of AZ. Good riddance. The working conditions sucked and they didn’t even pay a “living wage” here and they don’t pay one in AZ either.

All I’m saying here is that the “grass isn’t always greener” somewhere else if one or both of you already have a good job in SD County. Especially NOT in AZ! If you have only “shopped” for a house in areas where they are $450K+, of course you haven’t found a $350K house!

Simply put, you have been shopping in the wrong areas in SD County for your price range.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=spdrun] . . . People in SD can’t save anything because they CHOOSE to live the “lifestyle” in 3000 sq ft, rather than enjoying their surroundings and realizing that square footage ain’t everything.[/quote]

Completely agree, spdrun. If it’s not the “size” (and heating/cooling it all), it’s the vaulted ceilings which are preferred by the masses (which also use up utilities) or often both. Even those who have much smaller homes often pay dues to one or more HOAs every month and Mello Roos (on top of their property taxes) for a “lifestyle.”

One can actually purchase a SFR in SD County of 1400 sf to about 2300 sf (depending on condition) for $350K which has no MR/HOA and thus is large enough for a family and very affordable.

Yes, even 30 mins (or less) from Rancho Bernardo.

[Anonymous]

Bearishgurl, you have some bad traffic mojo in Phoenix! I’ve stayed there off and on for a year and what always impressed me was how quick and easy it was to get anywhere. I will grant you I10 from downtown west and I17 north can be pretty crappy because that’s where a lot of the new developments are, but still unless freeway construction is in full swing they can’t be compared to the daily gridlock through any major LA/OC/SD freeway.

Another thing I like about Phoenix is you can live decently – house, yard, nice schools, pretty close to the center of town. $350k will get you a nice newer house in established north central Phoenix, 4/3, 2500 sf, Paradise Valley Schools (best in Phoenix), 10 minutes to Desert Ridge (new hyper shopping and entertainment center), 15 minutes to Kierlands and Scottsdale Corner (Newport Fashion Island and LA Westside Pavilion combined – sorry no such animal I’m aware of in SD), 20 minutes to Scottsdale businesses, 20 minutes to Tempe (FIrst Solar), 30 minutes to Chandler (Intel and other high tech companies), and 20 minutes to Sky Harbor for that short hop vacay in California. I know theres a lot of Cali bias against Arizona – I used to have them too. But having worked (and stayed) here for a longer duration has definitely changed my outlook. Yes I still like he ocean and green hills (well, amber hills until the raining season) – but I have to say Phoenix can actually be an easier and cheaper place to live (I didn’t notice the high grocery prices, restaurants and bars can be Socal expensive but often are not, and gas is more like 20% cheaper).

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Want_to_Retire]Bearishgurl, you have some bad traffic mojo in Phoenix! I’ve stayed there off and on for a year and what always impressed me was how quick and easy it was to get anywhere. I will grant you I10 from downtown west and I17 north can be pretty crappy because that’s where a lot of the new developments are, but still unless freeway construction is in full swing they can’t be compared to the daily gridlock through any major LA/OC/SD freeway.

Another thing I like about Phoenix is you can live decently – house, yard, nice schools, pretty close to the center of town. $350k will get you a nice newer house in established north central Phoenix, 4/3, 2500 sf, Paradise Valley Schools (best in Phoenix), 10 minutes to Desert Ridge (new hyper shopping and entertainment center), 15 minutes to Kierlands and Scottsdale Corner (Newport Fashion Island and LA Westside Pavilion combined – sorry no such animal I’m aware of in SD), 20 minutes to Scottsdale businesses, 20 minutes to Tempe (FIrst Solar), 30 minutes to Chandler (Intel and other high tech companies), and 20 minutes to Sky Harbor for that short hop vacay in California. I know theres a lot of Cali bias against Arizona – I used to have them too. But having worked (and stayed) here for a longer duration has definitely changed my outlook. Yes I still like he ocean and green hills (well, amber hills until the raining season) – but I have to say Phoenix can actually be an easier and cheaper place to live (I didn’t notice the high grocery prices, restaurants and bars can be Socal expensive but often are not, and gas is more like 20% cheaper).[/quote]

Thanks for your post, Want_to_Retire. If you don’t mind my asking, are you planning on retiring in AZ? :=]

And if you don’t mind indulging me, I have several questions about these “theoretical” 4/3 2500 sf homes for ~$350K in PHX:

Are they typically a ranch-style or two-story?

How big is their average lot?

Is RV access available on any of these lots?

What would you say is the average utility bill (gas & elec) for the month of August for a 2500 sf home in PHX?

What percentage of the subject neighborhood has been “in distress” (read: “underwater”) since 2008?

Would you consider this area to be “established, with many long-term owners” or “not well established, with many (past and present) distressed properties?”

How much per month will a typical 2500 sf SFR in this area rent for?

How many miles away from the intersection of I-10 and I-17 is this area?

Would you personally consider these homes to be “well-built?”

And, how much does a ~2500 sf ranch-style SFR with a pool-sized lot and located within 15 miles of downtown PHX sell for today?

Thanks again for any insight you can lend us here.

[Anonymous]

I absolutely am planning to retire, maybe in Phoenix, 8 months out of the year.

To answer your questions, you can see some of these houses on Redfin, search in zip 85032 (for instance), $350k, and see what you find.

I would say for $350k you have both ranch style and 2 story houses. At that price range ranch style will be newer (architecturally they made a comeback) – late 90s to present. They tend to be further from the center of town but not too far away. The two story houses go from 1980s onwards.

The lot size varies of course, but I would say the not brand new city lots at that price range from 6000 to 8000 sf.

RV access is available for houses with bigger lots. I just bought a 3/2 – 1987 house as a rental – it has access for an RV because it’s on a corner lot. Most of the other houses at my price range didn’t.

I’m not sure what a typical electric bill would be for a house this size. I have 2 condos (2/2 – 1000 sf) I rent out and one renter estimates the bill to be about $30/month, he lives in a nice shady lower unit. The one in an upper unit with cathedral ceilings thinks it’s about $60/month. I have colleagues living in Phoenix and their electric bills compare favorably with mine (I live by Mission Viejo) – it’s not scientific because they live in bigger houses, mine has a bad east west exposure, one has a pool, etc. I would say they probably use a lot more electricity but AZ electricity is also a lot cheaper, so it’s probably a wash.

The areas I’m thinking of are established – good neighborhoods with decent upkeep. All of Phoenix has been “in distress” in that many properties have gone into foreclosure or are subject to short sales. I have been monitoring the market since I’m an active investor and those appear to be clearing out (very few new ones coming onto the market). I say ‘appear’ because – who knows.

It’s above my own target market, but I would guess a 2500 sfr in a decent neighborhood, with pool, fairly new, good shape with a reasonably updated kitchen will rent for $1800 to $2400 depending on the neighborhood.

The area is about 8 miles east of I17 and 10 mies north of I10. It’s by the 51 and 101 FWYs. The 51 is the greatest as highways go – gets you south to central Phoenix in 10 minutes, and Tempe/Sky Harbor in 20. It’s also surprisingly quick to drive cross valley to the I17 on surface streets, about 15 minutes, lights and all.

The houses look reasonably well built – as much as the Cali houses I’ve seen. Many houses don’t have what I would consider adequate eaves and almost none that I’ve seen have gutters – who needs it in the desert (but then there’s the monsoon season). In their favor, they have no earth movements so the houses tend to settle well and the driveways look pristine (crack wise).

The housing values depend on the area. From the true downtown (Central and Camelback), 15 miles will put you in Scottsdale in the east, Chandler in the south, the sprawlish western bedroom burbs like Tolleson, and the very new communities north of the 101 loop. Both Scottsdale and Chandler will be quite a bit more expensive. Going 15 miles north and west I would say a 2500 sf house, newer, pool sized lot, a nice neighborhood will go for mid $200,000 to low $300,000.

Yea, more Phoenix than any Piggs want to hear.

[paramount]

Based on what I’ve seen on property wars, Phoenix seems ok.

[flyer]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=flyer] . . . Depending on where you will be working, housing choices in the Valley, like Ahwatukee, Chandler (Ocotillo) Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Carefree, Desert Ridge and the Anthem developments (some here are “pricey,”) are great for families.

The bottom line is AZ is what it is. . . .[/quote]

Even flyer (fmr AZ resident) acknowledges that those “sprawling ranch” enclaves described by “david” are “pricey.”

[quote=davidaaronhart…]1) Housing cost- For $350k I can purchase a newer home with 4-5 bdrms, and 3 plus baths, with a pool and a 3 car garage for my boat ;)…[/quote]

david, where is the 4-5/3/3 located in or near PHX for $350K? And if it is NOT in PHX, how many miles away is it??

[quote=flyer]. . . In fact, you’ll probably save enough to be able to return to San Diego someday if you so choose.

IMO, this is a far better plan for a young family than burning up everything they make during their peak earning years–living paycheck to paycheck in CA–then ending up with nothing saved in their retirement years.[/quote]

I disagree with flyer on this issue. This assumption presumes a few things that likely will not take place, IMHO:

a) that RE values in CA coastal counties will stay stagnant or fall in the coming years;

b) that a CA worker moving to AZ is going to make more money there than if they stayed in their jobs in a CA coastal county; and

c) that one can make a profit in the future on a house they buy, maintain and possibly improve in the (grossly overbuilt) PHX area in the coming years; and

d) that the family who moves to AZ, by hook or crook, who DOES end up having more discretionary income every month isn’t going to spend it (on water/desert toys and trips to SD to the “beach” to get out of the heat) and end up living from “paycheck to paycheck” anyway :=][/quote]

BG, it’s true that no one really knows how things will develop in CA real estate, or in any other way in years to come, but those were simply my opinions.

My responses to the OP, were based upon the fact that it seems the primary motivation for the move to AZ involves a better job, and, again, my personal opinion is that he is making a good choice.

It’s also true that many people in many states live “paycheck to paycheck,” but I’ve seen more of it in CA than any place else we’ve ever lived, except, perhaps, when we were in Hawaii for 5 years.

Whatever they decide to do, I wish them the best!

[EconProf]

Flyer, you bring up a good point–that any move should consider what the future holds for each state, not just what conditions are now. At the rate California is going, what is its future compared to Phoenix? Which is a better place to put one’s growing family?
Case-Schiller just announced the home value changes for the last one year for the largest 20 cities. Phoenix house prices (sold) in December were 26% higher year over year, fastest climb in the nation. Granted, most of that was clearing out the debris of foreclosures and the snapping up of rental houses and flips since Phoenix was the epicenter of the housing bubble. But the strong rebound is undeniable, and days-on-market are way down and supply going forward promomises more of the same.
More fundamentally, what do current trends suggest for Phoenix vs. San Diego? A comparison of their utility costs should include water and sewer as well as electricity. San Diego’s are soaring. Out el. costs are about 30% higher and guaranteed to climb rapidly as our Global Warming Solutions Law now kicks in. Same trend is locked in with our water and sewer rates. Our income taxes are far higher than Arizona’s for families in this income range, and our property taxes likely to rise as Prop 13 is gutted by the even more tax-and-spend legislature.
All this will continue to fuel the exodus of middle and upper income taxpayers out of CA to friendler tax and regulation states. AZ has a conservative, business-friendly government while Sacramento has seemingly declared war against the job-creators. As a result AZ’s future looks brighter as CA’s looks bleaker.
Bottom line, what counts is not just current conditions, but where trends are heading.

[spdrun]

Even if utility costs were 100% higher, you won’t be using twice as much electricity in SD as opposed to Phoenix. First off, you’ll have a smaller home. Secondly, A/C cost is the 1000-lb gorilla in the room in Phoenix, and is much lower in most parts of SD Co. Third, doesn’t the global warming solutions law come with some nice subsidies for home solar systems?

[SK in CV]

[quote=spdrun]Even if utility costs were 100% higher, you won’t be using twice as much electricity in SD as opposed to Phoenix. First off, you’ll have a smaller home. Secondly, A/C cost is the 1000-lb gorilla in the room in Phoenix, and is much lower in most parts of SD Co. Third, doesn’t the global warming solutions law come with some nice subsidies for home solar systems?[/quote]

A/C may not cost as much as you think in Phoenix. My highest electric bill in a 2200 sq ft home in Phoenix was less than $100 last summer, the A/C is set at 78 and it’s on pretty much non-stop from June through Sept. In my 3600 sq ft home in SD, my electric was never less than $200 and more than doubled during the winter. I didn’t have A/C, but I’m guessing A/C would cost a lot more than heat.

[spdrun]

Sounds like you’re comparing a poorly-insulated McHome to a better-built smaller home in Phoenix. Apples to apples.

[an]

[quote=spdrun]Sounds like you’re comparing a poorly-insulated McHome to a better-built smaller home in Phoenix. Apples to apples.[/quote]
and you know the McHome is badly insulated, how? How do you know the smaller home are better built?

[spdrun]

Looks pretty obvious from the bills and square footage.

[Author]

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