Anyone thinks a contrarian view of CFC?

[Coronita]

Well folks. Thanks for the opinions today.

This day has been really interesting and stressful for me today. This morning I took up a long position on 10k shares of CFC over a 15minute interval, averaging 17.80, hoping for a dead cat bounce over the next few days. However, this afternoon, I started shitting in my pants when things were down to the mid fifeteens. Fortunately, the last hour of trading, I was able to get rid of everything in between 19.80 and 20.05. I don’t think I’ll be trading in this crap again. Too much volatility for my stomach.

I haven’t slept well in the past couple of days, trying to trade a few other stocks on the swings. I’ve been moving in and out of CVX , MO ,GYMB ,INTU over the past few weeks, trying to enter $79,$66,$38,$28 and exiting when things approach $83,$68, $42, $30… This morning i entered CVX, $79.15, MO $65.52 and GYMB $37.25, and this afternoon exited INTU at $29.01. This will be the fifth round of entry I’m doing. (Of course, I did a bonehead thing, and fat fingeredd MOV instead of MO when I was typing too fast during this morning, so I invariably picked up Movado too 🙁 ).

We’ll see how long I can keep this up before I die of a heart attack. Of course this is just play money, so if I lose it oh well. Not sure really how to play with this volatility, so it’s just an (expensive) experiment for me right now.

[Coronita]

Well folks. Thanks for the opinions today.

This day has been really interesting and stressful for me today. This morning I took up a long position on 10k shares of CFC over a 15minute interval, averaging 17.80, hoping for a dead cat bounce over the next few days. However, this afternoon, I started shitting in my pants when things were down to the mid fifeteens. Fortunately, the last hour of trading, I was able to get rid of everything in between 19.80 and 20.05. I don’t think I’ll be trading in this crap again. Too much volatility for my stomach.

I haven’t slept well in the past couple of days, trying to trade a few other stocks on the swings. I’ve been moving in and out of CVX , MO ,GYMB ,INTU over the past few weeks, trying to enter $79,$66,$38,$28 and exiting when things approach $83,$68, $42, $30… This morning i entered CVX, $79.15, MO $65.52 and GYMB $37.25, and this afternoon exited INTU at $29.01. This will be the fifth round of entry I’m doing. (Of course, I did a bonehead thing, and fat fingeredd MOV instead of MO when I was typing too fast during this morning, so I invariably picked up Movado too 🙁 ).

We’ll see how long I can keep this up before I die of a heart attack. Of course this is just play money, so if I lose it oh well. Not sure really how to play with this volatility, so it’s just an (expensive) experiment for me right now.

[Coronita]

Well folks. Thanks for the opinions today.

This day has been really interesting and stressful for me today. This morning I took up a long position on 10k shares of CFC over a 15minute interval, averaging 17.80, hoping for a dead cat bounce over the next few days. However, this afternoon, I started shitting in my pants when things were down to the mid fifeteens. Fortunately, the last hour of trading, I was able to get rid of everything in between 19.80 and 20.05. I don’t think I’ll be trading in this crap again. Too much volatility for my stomach.

I haven’t slept well in the past couple of days, trying to trade a few other stocks on the swings. I’ve been moving in and out of CVX , MO ,GYMB ,INTU over the past few weeks, trying to enter $79,$66,$38,$28 and exiting when things approach $83,$68, $42, $30… This morning i entered CVX, $79.15, MO $65.52 and GYMB $37.25, and this afternoon exited INTU at $29.01. This will be the fifth round of entry I’m doing. (Of course, I did a bonehead thing, and fat fingeredd MOV instead of MO when I was typing too fast during this morning, so I invariably picked up Movado too 🙁 ).

We’ll see how long I can keep this up before I die of a heart attack. Of course this is just play money, so if I lose it oh well. Not sure really how to play with this volatility, so it’s just an (expensive) experiment for me right now.

[Anonymous]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

[Anonymous]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

[Anonymous]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

[Anonymous]

Countrywide just offered a 4 and 1/4 of 12/29/07 paper on a 20% yield to maturity. yup, 20%. ( that was early in the day. Later they offered up to 30%). Yesterday, the city of Cleveland, OH stopped accepting checks from Countrywide. Countrywide has never bounced a check to the city, but the city said they were “taking the measure out of prudence.”

So, if anyone wants to take a flyer on this thing making it, you can make 30% on the dec. bond and still have a place in line as a creditor in bankfuptcy court. If you buy the stock and it BKs, you.are.history.

A really good analysis of the situation by Kevin Depew over at minyanville, especially if you like the track.

The news trickling out on Countrywide Financial (CFC) is a big deal. Remember, this is the biggest mortgage lender in the country.

* So, how bad is it?
* Think of it like this. It’s late December. Snowing. Aqueduct racetrack. The last race is in four minutes, you’re down $287 and seven beers. But you’re not finished yet. There’s still one race left, the last race, the one they call The Widowmaker. Few losers ever survive The Widowmaker. But there it is, calling to you, asking for one last wager, one final grasp. Ah, but there’s a slight snag, a hitch in your giddyup so to speak. The only paper in your pocket is a losing exacta ticket from the last race that came in backwards. We’re talking the only paper in your pocket. You sold your unlimited subway card after the 5th race, plunged full-bore on a filthy hot dog, a beer and a 9-1 shot that finished next-to-last. You are Countrywide.
* Who are you gonna turn to now?
* If you’re Countrywide you’re gonna tap your entire $11.5 billion bank credit line.
* What does that mean?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734
Minyanville – NEWS & VIEWS-Article

[Anonymous]

Countrywide just offered a 4 and 1/4 of 12/29/07 paper on a 20% yield to maturity. yup, 20%. ( that was early in the day. Later they offered up to 30%). Yesterday, the city of Cleveland, OH stopped accepting checks from Countrywide. Countrywide has never bounced a check to the city, but the city said they were “taking the measure out of prudence.”

So, if anyone wants to take a flyer on this thing making it, you can make 30% on the dec. bond and still have a place in line as a creditor in bankfuptcy court. If you buy the stock and it BKs, you.are.history.

A really good analysis of the situation by Kevin Depew over at minyanville, especially if you like the track.

The news trickling out on Countrywide Financial (CFC) is a big deal. Remember, this is the biggest mortgage lender in the country.

* So, how bad is it?
* Think of it like this. It’s late December. Snowing. Aqueduct racetrack. The last race is in four minutes, you’re down $287 and seven beers. But you’re not finished yet. There’s still one race left, the last race, the one they call The Widowmaker. Few losers ever survive The Widowmaker. But there it is, calling to you, asking for one last wager, one final grasp. Ah, but there’s a slight snag, a hitch in your giddyup so to speak. The only paper in your pocket is a losing exacta ticket from the last race that came in backwards. We’re talking the only paper in your pocket. You sold your unlimited subway card after the 5th race, plunged full-bore on a filthy hot dog, a beer and a 9-1 shot that finished next-to-last. You are Countrywide.
* Who are you gonna turn to now?
* If you’re Countrywide you’re gonna tap your entire $11.5 billion bank credit line.
* What does that mean?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734
Minyanville – NEWS & VIEWS-Article

[Anonymous]

Countrywide just offered a 4 and 1/4 of 12/29/07 paper on a 20% yield to maturity. yup, 20%. ( that was early in the day. Later they offered up to 30%). Yesterday, the city of Cleveland, OH stopped accepting checks from Countrywide. Countrywide has never bounced a check to the city, but the city said they were “taking the measure out of prudence.”

So, if anyone wants to take a flyer on this thing making it, you can make 30% on the dec. bond and still have a place in line as a creditor in bankfuptcy court. If you buy the stock and it BKs, you.are.history.

A really good analysis of the situation by Kevin Depew over at minyanville, especially if you like the track.

The news trickling out on Countrywide Financial (CFC) is a big deal. Remember, this is the biggest mortgage lender in the country.

* So, how bad is it?
* Think of it like this. It’s late December. Snowing. Aqueduct racetrack. The last race is in four minutes, you’re down $287 and seven beers. But you’re not finished yet. There’s still one race left, the last race, the one they call The Widowmaker. Few losers ever survive The Widowmaker. But there it is, calling to you, asking for one last wager, one final grasp. Ah, but there’s a slight snag, a hitch in your giddyup so to speak. The only paper in your pocket is a losing exacta ticket from the last race that came in backwards. We’re talking the only paper in your pocket. You sold your unlimited subway card after the 5th race, plunged full-bore on a filthy hot dog, a beer and a 9-1 shot that finished next-to-last. You are Countrywide.
* Who are you gonna turn to now?
* If you’re Countrywide you’re gonna tap your entire $11.5 billion bank credit line.
* What does that mean?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734
Minyanville – NEWS & VIEWS-Article

[Coronita]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

 

I'm not trying to fart around being a day trader. Just trying to take advantage of the current market volatility that won't last that much longer (it will end one way or the other). Personally, I don't think we can tell we're in a bear market (yet). The markets have been wildly swinging around over the past couple of weeks back and forth trading on rumors and speculation. As such, I'm moving in and out of positions of certain companies for which appears to be range bound during these days of volatility. Namely, picking companies that normally are "boring", with no forseeable news (good or bad), but are now bouncing around due to the general instability in the markets. Any company that announces earnings, I won’t reenter the company until after earnings.

I don’t want to short CFC, because I think there’s a bit of uncertainty around it right now. Get a few banks to “upgrade” to hold from sell, or get a bailout from the gov, or the fed does an unexpected rate decrease more than 50 basis points, I could be hosed. The thing I see slightly different from CFC from others is that is doesn’t appear they are having issues wrto to getting credit. As far as changing their business model from doing only conforming loans..Bad news for Kalifornians, but there are plenty of markets that aren’t dependent on jumbo loans out of state.
Just my opinion. If I had to bet, I would put a bet on a long position at this point versus short, but again, too much uncertainty for me to play this one.

[Coronita]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

 

I'm not trying to fart around being a day trader. Just trying to take advantage of the current market volatility that won't last that much longer (it will end one way or the other). Personally, I don't think we can tell we're in a bear market (yet). The markets have been wildly swinging around over the past couple of weeks back and forth trading on rumors and speculation. As such, I'm moving in and out of positions of certain companies for which appears to be range bound during these days of volatility. Namely, picking companies that normally are "boring", with no forseeable news (good or bad), but are now bouncing around due to the general instability in the markets. Any company that announces earnings, I won’t reenter the company until after earnings.

I don’t want to short CFC, because I think there’s a bit of uncertainty around it right now. Get a few banks to “upgrade” to hold from sell, or get a bailout from the gov, or the fed does an unexpected rate decrease more than 50 basis points, I could be hosed. The thing I see slightly different from CFC from others is that is doesn’t appear they are having issues wrto to getting credit. As far as changing their business model from doing only conforming loans..Bad news for Kalifornians, but there are plenty of markets that aren’t dependent on jumbo loans out of state.
Just my opinion. If I had to bet, I would put a bet on a long position at this point versus short, but again, too much uncertainty for me to play this one.

[Coronita]

Fat Lazy, Why are you farting around trying to be a day trader? Things would work out better if you just short CFC at $20 and hang tight for the rest of the year.

 

I'm not trying to fart around being a day trader. Just trying to take advantage of the current market volatility that won't last that much longer (it will end one way or the other). Personally, I don't think we can tell we're in a bear market (yet). The markets have been wildly swinging around over the past couple of weeks back and forth trading on rumors and speculation. As such, I'm moving in and out of positions of certain companies for which appears to be range bound during these days of volatility. Namely, picking companies that normally are "boring", with no forseeable news (good or bad), but are now bouncing around due to the general instability in the markets. Any company that announces earnings, I won’t reenter the company until after earnings.

I don’t want to short CFC, because I think there’s a bit of uncertainty around it right now. Get a few banks to “upgrade” to hold from sell, or get a bailout from the gov, or the fed does an unexpected rate decrease more than 50 basis points, I could be hosed. The thing I see slightly different from CFC from others is that is doesn’t appear they are having issues wrto to getting credit. As far as changing their business model from doing only conforming loans..Bad news for Kalifornians, but there are plenty of markets that aren’t dependent on jumbo loans out of state.
Just my opinion. If I had to bet, I would put a bet on a long position at this point versus short, but again, too much uncertainty for me to play this one.

[Coronita]

The irony of the situation. I’m up at 5:20am, and two things have happened that I spoke of.

1. CFC is upgraded by BOFA

2. Fed lowers discount rate by 50 basis points.

Going to be an interesting day.

[Coronita]

The irony of the situation. I’m up at 5:20am, and two things have happened that I spoke of.

1. CFC is upgraded by BOFA

2. Fed lowers discount rate by 50 basis points.

Going to be an interesting day.

[Coronita]

The irony of the situation. I’m up at 5:20am, and two things have happened that I spoke of.

1. CFC is upgraded by BOFA

2. Fed lowers discount rate by 50 basis points.

Going to be an interesting day.

[Author]

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