Anyone thinks a contrarian view of CFC?

[Coronita]

I know this is going against the grain…But anyone thinking about taking a contrarian view on Countrywide? That is, unlike other smaller mortgage lenders, this one is going to survive and the issues it faces are overblown? It seems like most of the companies that are having issues are having issues with access to funding. Even with the turmoil, it appears CFC is still obtaining funding, (albeit at substantially higher costs).

[stansd]

I’ll go on record in agreement. I think they will weather the liquidity crunch. They’ll remain pretty beaten down as the fallout from the housing decline continues to make itself truly felt (they’ll probably require big layoffs and a reorganization to “right size” their business), but I don’t see them going bankrupt.

This board has some definite biases that always have to be remembered. If you look at the prices of credit default swaps on CFC, they have gotten much more expensive, but they are still placing the odds of bankruptcy as remote.

Stan

[stansd]

I’ll go on record in agreement. I think they will weather the liquidity crunch. They’ll remain pretty beaten down as the fallout from the housing decline continues to make itself truly felt (they’ll probably require big layoffs and a reorganization to “right size” their business), but I don’t see them going bankrupt.

This board has some definite biases that always have to be remembered. If you look at the prices of credit default swaps on CFC, they have gotten much more expensive, but they are still placing the odds of bankruptcy as remote.

Stan

[stansd]

I’ll go on record in agreement. I think they will weather the liquidity crunch. They’ll remain pretty beaten down as the fallout from the housing decline continues to make itself truly felt (they’ll probably require big layoffs and a reorganization to “right size” their business), but I don’t see them going bankrupt.

This board has some definite biases that always have to be remembered. If you look at the prices of credit default swaps on CFC, they have gotten much more expensive, but they are still placing the odds of bankruptcy as remote.

Stan

[capeman]

Obviously you didn’t see the news release this morning. They’re buying time at this point. It’s just a matter of whether BC will come before my Sept. Puts expire or will I have to buy some Octobers. It’s all happening much quicker than I though it would.

[capeman]

Obviously you didn’t see the news release this morning. They’re buying time at this point. It’s just a matter of whether BC will come before my Sept. Puts expire or will I have to buy some Octobers. It’s all happening much quicker than I though it would.

[capeman]

Obviously you didn’t see the news release this morning. They’re buying time at this point. It’s just a matter of whether BC will come before my Sept. Puts expire or will I have to buy some Octobers. It’s all happening much quicker than I though it would.

[stansd]

Hadn’t seen that yet-think it came out within a few minutes of my post.

I’ve walked the plank now…still think they’ll weather it (options still not pricing in real high odds of BK, TBTF, liquidity will ease up), but I wouldn’t seek a loan from them at the moment:)

Stan

[stansd]

Hadn’t seen that yet-think it came out within a few minutes of my post.

I’ve walked the plank now…still think they’ll weather it (options still not pricing in real high odds of BK, TBTF, liquidity will ease up), but I wouldn’t seek a loan from them at the moment:)

Stan

[stansd]

Hadn’t seen that yet-think it came out within a few minutes of my post.

I’ve walked the plank now…still think they’ll weather it (options still not pricing in real high odds of BK, TBTF, liquidity will ease up), but I wouldn’t seek a loan from them at the moment:)

Stan

[aztecnology]

CFC is done, down 30+% in 24 hours, bankruptcy on the horizon.They are no longer doing jumbo loans, and only conforming that they can sell to freddie and fannie…

[aztecnology]

CFC is done, down 30+% in 24 hours, bankruptcy on the horizon.They are no longer doing jumbo loans, and only conforming that they can sell to freddie and fannie…

[aztecnology]

CFC is done, down 30+% in 24 hours, bankruptcy on the horizon.They are no longer doing jumbo loans, and only conforming that they can sell to freddie and fannie…

[capeman]

That last post says it all. Only conforming means pretty much all 80-90% of the business they’ve been doing the last couple of years is gone. Couple that with having so many REOs on the books (many more to come!) and having to deal with the paper coming back they will be BK within 2 months and likely right about 1 month from now.

[capeman]

That last post says it all. Only conforming means pretty much all 80-90% of the business they’ve been doing the last couple of years is gone. Couple that with having so many REOs on the books (many more to come!) and having to deal with the paper coming back they will be BK within 2 months and likely right about 1 month from now.

[Author]

Posts