3B/2B homes in Mira Mesa to be under $300K soon?

[kewp]

There are not enough houses for everyone.

If that were the case, houses would be getting more expensive, not less. There is a huge glut of vacant homes on the market, both bank and speculator owned.

Re: The San Diego median income. We’ll see what happens to that after all the bubbly jobs disappear over the next two years.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[Author]

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