3B/2B homes in Mira Mesa to be under $300K soon?

[jimmyle]

New low for Mira Mesa single family home. This 1300 sq ft home is listing for $335K. It is actually in a nicer area of Mira Mesa close to the new park. This makes me think that later this year a similar house would be under $300K. Very nice to see this huge reduction.

[jimmyle]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066982-8337_Santa_Arminta_San_Diego_CA_92126

[unbiasedobserver]

Greetings Jimmyle. If you the correct person I’m thinking of, weren’t you going to pay half a mil for a MM shack a year ago for personal reasons (your mother is in the area or something)? And several of us told you to wait until prices were chopped in half and you didn’t believe us? Houses like this were in the 100K’s not that long ago, I would expect these to bottom in the low 200Ks, be patient.

[jimmyle]

lol, yeah, that was me. I didn’t think 40+% reduction would be possible.

[jimmyle]

lol, yeah, that was me. I didn’t think 40+% reduction would be possible.

[jimmyle]

lol, yeah, that was me. I didn’t think 40+% reduction would be possible.

[jimmyle]

lol, yeah, that was me. I didn’t think 40+% reduction would be possible.

[jimmyle]

lol, yeah, that was me. I didn’t think 40+% reduction would be possible.

[nostradamus]

Hi Jimmyle,

Those Santa Arminita houses are really old and I wouldn’t call them the “nicer” homes in Mira Mesa until you cross to the North side of Calle Cristobal or West of say, Prairie Shadow.

That particular house is right on the corner of Cam. Ruiz where there is a stop sign and ugly traffic at all hours. IMO it is neither a good investment nor a good place to live.

OT Comment Warning
Late last night I was walking the dog at that very park and I’d swear there were about 100 coyotes howling at us like hyenas in the mist. Admittedly it was post-2-glasses of Bordeaux but would have been freaky even sober.

[SD Realtor]

Nostra, as usual your assessment is dead on about this listing. That said, depreciation will continue and Jimmy… just sit tight man… let the game come to you my friend.

Nostra I recall many nights walking our dogs and we would hear them as well… sometimes they were really close… the freaky thing was you could tell when they made a catch.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

By my calculations, Mira Mesa as a whole is only overpriced by 10% or so. Another 10% down and we’ll be back to 2000 affordability levels (monthly payment vs. median income). To reach low 200k’s, we need a regional recession (roll back some of the 30% increase in incomes, most of which happened in the last 3 years), significantly higher interest rates, or both.

[sd_bear]

emith – I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k. If a 3 bed/2 bath 450k house only takes a 10% haircut you are still looking at nearly a 400k house. Even if you had the $80000 down payment you are going to be paying around 2500 a month after taxes/insurance at 6% interest rate. You can rent that house for probably 1800.

I think it needs a bit more of a decrease for that median household income (or even 75th percentile) to be able purchase a house like that and thats assuming you have 20% down.

Even the houses on the lower end of the pricing spectrum in Mira Mesa will need bigger than 10% drops to reach affordability and match rents.

[Eugene]

I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k.

Here’s my reasoning. Median resale price of a detached house in MM in 2000 was around 240k. Average interest rate on a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage was 8.1% (monthly payment $740 per $100,000 borrowed).

Today interest rates are around 5.8% or less ($585 per $100,000), incomes are up 30%. You get the same level affordability if median price is 240k * (740/585) * 1.30 = $395k. Monthly payment $1850, property tax $300-350, interest deduction at least $450.

December median was around 440k.

Two caveats. First, some of the 30% increase in incomes is bubble money, it may go away. Second, 5.8% interest rates may not stick around for too long.

P.S.
average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2000: $265k

average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2007: $458k

[sd_bear]

Just curious – where did you find that incomes grew 30% in this area in 7 years? My gut says that is pretty high, though I don’t know where to research it. If it did I’m sure its very likely much of it could be bubble money.

This math also takes into account that rents remain stable while housing goes down. Won’t rents will be going down as well? I guess its all speculation anyway.

[sd_bear]

Just curious – where did you find that incomes grew 30% in this area in 7 years? My gut says that is pretty high, though I don’t know where to research it. If it did I’m sure its very likely much of it could be bubble money.

This math also takes into account that rents remain stable while housing goes down. Won’t rents will be going down as well? I guess its all speculation anyway.

[sd_bear]

Just curious – where did you find that incomes grew 30% in this area in 7 years? My gut says that is pretty high, though I don’t know where to research it. If it did I’m sure its very likely much of it could be bubble money.

This math also takes into account that rents remain stable while housing goes down. Won’t rents will be going down as well? I guess its all speculation anyway.

[sd_bear]

Just curious – where did you find that incomes grew 30% in this area in 7 years? My gut says that is pretty high, though I don’t know where to research it. If it did I’m sure its very likely much of it could be bubble money.

This math also takes into account that rents remain stable while housing goes down. Won’t rents will be going down as well? I guess its all speculation anyway.

[sd_bear]

Just curious – where did you find that incomes grew 30% in this area in 7 years? My gut says that is pretty high, though I don’t know where to research it. If it did I’m sure its very likely much of it could be bubble money.

This math also takes into account that rents remain stable while housing goes down. Won’t rents will be going down as well? I guess its all speculation anyway.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[Eugene]

why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point

I disagree, SD was barely out of the 90’s bust. Speculative bubble took off in 2003 because interest rates were falling a few years straight and it led people to believe that housing was taking off to the Moon.

What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally

One of the fallacies of the housing bubble was that you should buy the biggest house that the bank is willing to lend you money for. In a healthy market (especially in a declining market), living in a house costs you money because appreciation alone does not cover your interest payments. The bigger the house, the more it hurts your cash flow. So, you should buy the smallest house that will “work” for you. MM is not Carmel Valley but MM is not a ghetto, either. It’s like driving a Camry instead of a Lexus. Sure everyone likes Lexi but does it make most financial sense for everyone to stretch to make payments for them? or is it better to have 3-4 times the market value of the Lexus in your bank before you go and buy one?

That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house).

Yes – ratio of median house to median income is higher than in 2000 – but all that money is borrowed and cost of borrowing is significantly lower today – so I say it’s a wash.

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K.

It’s a manufactured house …

[Eugene]

why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point

I disagree, SD was barely out of the 90’s bust. Speculative bubble took off in 2003 because interest rates were falling a few years straight and it led people to believe that housing was taking off to the Moon.

What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally

One of the fallacies of the housing bubble was that you should buy the biggest house that the bank is willing to lend you money for. In a healthy market (especially in a declining market), living in a house costs you money because appreciation alone does not cover your interest payments. The bigger the house, the more it hurts your cash flow. So, you should buy the smallest house that will “work” for you. MM is not Carmel Valley but MM is not a ghetto, either. It’s like driving a Camry instead of a Lexus. Sure everyone likes Lexi but does it make most financial sense for everyone to stretch to make payments for them? or is it better to have 3-4 times the market value of the Lexus in your bank before you go and buy one?

That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house).

Yes – ratio of median house to median income is higher than in 2000 – but all that money is borrowed and cost of borrowing is significantly lower today – so I say it’s a wash.

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K.

It’s a manufactured house …

[Eugene]

why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point

I disagree, SD was barely out of the 90’s bust. Speculative bubble took off in 2003 because interest rates were falling a few years straight and it led people to believe that housing was taking off to the Moon.

What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally

One of the fallacies of the housing bubble was that you should buy the biggest house that the bank is willing to lend you money for. In a healthy market (especially in a declining market), living in a house costs you money because appreciation alone does not cover your interest payments. The bigger the house, the more it hurts your cash flow. So, you should buy the smallest house that will “work” for you. MM is not Carmel Valley but MM is not a ghetto, either. It’s like driving a Camry instead of a Lexus. Sure everyone likes Lexi but does it make most financial sense for everyone to stretch to make payments for them? or is it better to have 3-4 times the market value of the Lexus in your bank before you go and buy one?

That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house).

Yes – ratio of median house to median income is higher than in 2000 – but all that money is borrowed and cost of borrowing is significantly lower today – so I say it’s a wash.

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K.

It’s a manufactured house …

[Eugene]

why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point

I disagree, SD was barely out of the 90’s bust. Speculative bubble took off in 2003 because interest rates were falling a few years straight and it led people to believe that housing was taking off to the Moon.

What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally

One of the fallacies of the housing bubble was that you should buy the biggest house that the bank is willing to lend you money for. In a healthy market (especially in a declining market), living in a house costs you money because appreciation alone does not cover your interest payments. The bigger the house, the more it hurts your cash flow. So, you should buy the smallest house that will “work” for you. MM is not Carmel Valley but MM is not a ghetto, either. It’s like driving a Camry instead of a Lexus. Sure everyone likes Lexi but does it make most financial sense for everyone to stretch to make payments for them? or is it better to have 3-4 times the market value of the Lexus in your bank before you go and buy one?

That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house).

Yes – ratio of median house to median income is higher than in 2000 – but all that money is borrowed and cost of borrowing is significantly lower today – so I say it’s a wash.

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K.

It’s a manufactured house …

[Eugene]

why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point

I disagree, SD was barely out of the 90’s bust. Speculative bubble took off in 2003 because interest rates were falling a few years straight and it led people to believe that housing was taking off to the Moon.

What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally

One of the fallacies of the housing bubble was that you should buy the biggest house that the bank is willing to lend you money for. In a healthy market (especially in a declining market), living in a house costs you money because appreciation alone does not cover your interest payments. The bigger the house, the more it hurts your cash flow. So, you should buy the smallest house that will “work” for you. MM is not Carmel Valley but MM is not a ghetto, either. It’s like driving a Camry instead of a Lexus. Sure everyone likes Lexi but does it make most financial sense for everyone to stretch to make payments for them? or is it better to have 3-4 times the market value of the Lexus in your bank before you go and buy one?

That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house).

Yes – ratio of median house to median income is higher than in 2000 – but all that money is borrowed and cost of borrowing is significantly lower today – so I say it’s a wash.

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K.

It’s a manufactured house …

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[unbiasedobserver]

esmith, why use Dec 2000 as your ‘base’ year, SD was already 3-4 years into the bubble at that point. How can 60K income support a 400K house? I almost bought a decent 1800sft house in MM for 175K in 1996, tack on some inflation and I’d say it’s worth about 225K today, not the 650K the owners probably think its worth.

[Eugene]

I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k.

Here’s my reasoning. Median resale price of a detached house in MM in 2000 was around 240k. Average interest rate on a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage was 8.1% (monthly payment $740 per $100,000 borrowed).

Today interest rates are around 5.8% or less ($585 per $100,000), incomes are up 30%. You get the same level affordability if median price is 240k * (740/585) * 1.30 = $395k. Monthly payment $1850, property tax $300-350, interest deduction at least $450.

December median was around 440k.

Two caveats. First, some of the 30% increase in incomes is bubble money, it may go away. Second, 5.8% interest rates may not stick around for too long.

P.S.
average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2000: $265k

average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2007: $458k

[Eugene]

I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k.

Here’s my reasoning. Median resale price of a detached house in MM in 2000 was around 240k. Average interest rate on a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage was 8.1% (monthly payment $740 per $100,000 borrowed).

Today interest rates are around 5.8% or less ($585 per $100,000), incomes are up 30%. You get the same level affordability if median price is 240k * (740/585) * 1.30 = $395k. Monthly payment $1850, property tax $300-350, interest deduction at least $450.

December median was around 440k.

Two caveats. First, some of the 30% increase in incomes is bubble money, it may go away. Second, 5.8% interest rates may not stick around for too long.

P.S.
average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2000: $265k

average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2007: $458k

[Eugene]

I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k.

Here’s my reasoning. Median resale price of a detached house in MM in 2000 was around 240k. Average interest rate on a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage was 8.1% (monthly payment $740 per $100,000 borrowed).

Today interest rates are around 5.8% or less ($585 per $100,000), incomes are up 30%. You get the same level affordability if median price is 240k * (740/585) * 1.30 = $395k. Monthly payment $1850, property tax $300-350, interest deduction at least $450.

December median was around 440k.

Two caveats. First, some of the 30% increase in incomes is bubble money, it may go away. Second, 5.8% interest rates may not stick around for too long.

P.S.
average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2000: $265k

average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2007: $458k

[Eugene]

I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k.

Here’s my reasoning. Median resale price of a detached house in MM in 2000 was around 240k. Average interest rate on a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage was 8.1% (monthly payment $740 per $100,000 borrowed).

Today interest rates are around 5.8% or less ($585 per $100,000), incomes are up 30%. You get the same level affordability if median price is 240k * (740/585) * 1.30 = $395k. Monthly payment $1850, property tax $300-350, interest deduction at least $450.

December median was around 440k.

Two caveats. First, some of the 30% increase in incomes is bubble money, it may go away. Second, 5.8% interest rates may not stick around for too long.

P.S.
average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2000: $265k

average detached sales price in 92126 in December 2007: $458k

[sd_bear]

emith – I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k. If a 3 bed/2 bath 450k house only takes a 10% haircut you are still looking at nearly a 400k house. Even if you had the $80000 down payment you are going to be paying around 2500 a month after taxes/insurance at 6% interest rate. You can rent that house for probably 1800.

I think it needs a bit more of a decrease for that median household income (or even 75th percentile) to be able purchase a house like that and thats assuming you have 20% down.

Even the houses on the lower end of the pricing spectrum in Mira Mesa will need bigger than 10% drops to reach affordability and match rents.

[sd_bear]

emith – I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k. If a 3 bed/2 bath 450k house only takes a 10% haircut you are still looking at nearly a 400k house. Even if you had the $80000 down payment you are going to be paying around 2500 a month after taxes/insurance at 6% interest rate. You can rent that house for probably 1800.

I think it needs a bit more of a decrease for that median household income (or even 75th percentile) to be able purchase a house like that and thats assuming you have 20% down.

Even the houses on the lower end of the pricing spectrum in Mira Mesa will need bigger than 10% drops to reach affordability and match rents.

[sd_bear]

emith – I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k. If a 3 bed/2 bath 450k house only takes a 10% haircut you are still looking at nearly a 400k house. Even if you had the $80000 down payment you are going to be paying around 2500 a month after taxes/insurance at 6% interest rate. You can rent that house for probably 1800.

I think it needs a bit more of a decrease for that median household income (or even 75th percentile) to be able purchase a house like that and thats assuming you have 20% down.

Even the houses on the lower end of the pricing spectrum in Mira Mesa will need bigger than 10% drops to reach affordability and match rents.

[sd_bear]

emith – I’m curious why you think it only needs another 10% haircut. Median household income is 60k. If a 3 bed/2 bath 450k house only takes a 10% haircut you are still looking at nearly a 400k house. Even if you had the $80000 down payment you are going to be paying around 2500 a month after taxes/insurance at 6% interest rate. You can rent that house for probably 1800.

I think it needs a bit more of a decrease for that median household income (or even 75th percentile) to be able purchase a house like that and thats assuming you have 20% down.

Even the houses on the lower end of the pricing spectrum in Mira Mesa will need bigger than 10% drops to reach affordability and match rents.

[Eugene]

By my calculations, Mira Mesa as a whole is only overpriced by 10% or so. Another 10% down and we’ll be back to 2000 affordability levels (monthly payment vs. median income). To reach low 200k’s, we need a regional recession (roll back some of the 30% increase in incomes, most of which happened in the last 3 years), significantly higher interest rates, or both.

[Eugene]

By my calculations, Mira Mesa as a whole is only overpriced by 10% or so. Another 10% down and we’ll be back to 2000 affordability levels (monthly payment vs. median income). To reach low 200k’s, we need a regional recession (roll back some of the 30% increase in incomes, most of which happened in the last 3 years), significantly higher interest rates, or both.

[Eugene]

By my calculations, Mira Mesa as a whole is only overpriced by 10% or so. Another 10% down and we’ll be back to 2000 affordability levels (monthly payment vs. median income). To reach low 200k’s, we need a regional recession (roll back some of the 30% increase in incomes, most of which happened in the last 3 years), significantly higher interest rates, or both.

[Eugene]

By my calculations, Mira Mesa as a whole is only overpriced by 10% or so. Another 10% down and we’ll be back to 2000 affordability levels (monthly payment vs. median income). To reach low 200k’s, we need a regional recession (roll back some of the 30% increase in incomes, most of which happened in the last 3 years), significantly higher interest rates, or both.

[SD Realtor]

Nostra, as usual your assessment is dead on about this listing. That said, depreciation will continue and Jimmy… just sit tight man… let the game come to you my friend.

Nostra I recall many nights walking our dogs and we would hear them as well… sometimes they were really close… the freaky thing was you could tell when they made a catch.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nostra, as usual your assessment is dead on about this listing. That said, depreciation will continue and Jimmy… just sit tight man… let the game come to you my friend.

Nostra I recall many nights walking our dogs and we would hear them as well… sometimes they were really close… the freaky thing was you could tell when they made a catch.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nostra, as usual your assessment is dead on about this listing. That said, depreciation will continue and Jimmy… just sit tight man… let the game come to you my friend.

Nostra I recall many nights walking our dogs and we would hear them as well… sometimes they were really close… the freaky thing was you could tell when they made a catch.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nostra, as usual your assessment is dead on about this listing. That said, depreciation will continue and Jimmy… just sit tight man… let the game come to you my friend.

Nostra I recall many nights walking our dogs and we would hear them as well… sometimes they were really close… the freaky thing was you could tell when they made a catch.

SD Realtor

[nostradamus]

Hi Jimmyle,

Those Santa Arminita houses are really old and I wouldn’t call them the “nicer” homes in Mira Mesa until you cross to the North side of Calle Cristobal or West of say, Prairie Shadow.

That particular house is right on the corner of Cam. Ruiz where there is a stop sign and ugly traffic at all hours. IMO it is neither a good investment nor a good place to live.

OT Comment Warning
Late last night I was walking the dog at that very park and I’d swear there were about 100 coyotes howling at us like hyenas in the mist. Admittedly it was post-2-glasses of Bordeaux but would have been freaky even sober.

[nostradamus]

Hi Jimmyle,

Those Santa Arminita houses are really old and I wouldn’t call them the “nicer” homes in Mira Mesa until you cross to the North side of Calle Cristobal or West of say, Prairie Shadow.

That particular house is right on the corner of Cam. Ruiz where there is a stop sign and ugly traffic at all hours. IMO it is neither a good investment nor a good place to live.

OT Comment Warning
Late last night I was walking the dog at that very park and I’d swear there were about 100 coyotes howling at us like hyenas in the mist. Admittedly it was post-2-glasses of Bordeaux but would have been freaky even sober.

[nostradamus]

Hi Jimmyle,

Those Santa Arminita houses are really old and I wouldn’t call them the “nicer” homes in Mira Mesa until you cross to the North side of Calle Cristobal or West of say, Prairie Shadow.

That particular house is right on the corner of Cam. Ruiz where there is a stop sign and ugly traffic at all hours. IMO it is neither a good investment nor a good place to live.

OT Comment Warning
Late last night I was walking the dog at that very park and I’d swear there were about 100 coyotes howling at us like hyenas in the mist. Admittedly it was post-2-glasses of Bordeaux but would have been freaky even sober.

[nostradamus]

Hi Jimmyle,

Those Santa Arminita houses are really old and I wouldn’t call them the “nicer” homes in Mira Mesa until you cross to the North side of Calle Cristobal or West of say, Prairie Shadow.

That particular house is right on the corner of Cam. Ruiz where there is a stop sign and ugly traffic at all hours. IMO it is neither a good investment nor a good place to live.

OT Comment Warning
Late last night I was walking the dog at that very park and I’d swear there were about 100 coyotes howling at us like hyenas in the mist. Admittedly it was post-2-glasses of Bordeaux but would have been freaky even sober.

[unbiasedobserver]

Greetings Jimmyle. If you the correct person I’m thinking of, weren’t you going to pay half a mil for a MM shack a year ago for personal reasons (your mother is in the area or something)? And several of us told you to wait until prices were chopped in half and you didn’t believe us? Houses like this were in the 100K’s not that long ago, I would expect these to bottom in the low 200Ks, be patient.

[unbiasedobserver]

Greetings Jimmyle. If you the correct person I’m thinking of, weren’t you going to pay half a mil for a MM shack a year ago for personal reasons (your mother is in the area or something)? And several of us told you to wait until prices were chopped in half and you didn’t believe us? Houses like this were in the 100K’s not that long ago, I would expect these to bottom in the low 200Ks, be patient.

[unbiasedobserver]

Greetings Jimmyle. If you the correct person I’m thinking of, weren’t you going to pay half a mil for a MM shack a year ago for personal reasons (your mother is in the area or something)? And several of us told you to wait until prices were chopped in half and you didn’t believe us? Houses like this were in the 100K’s not that long ago, I would expect these to bottom in the low 200Ks, be patient.

[unbiasedobserver]

Greetings Jimmyle. If you the correct person I’m thinking of, weren’t you going to pay half a mil for a MM shack a year ago for personal reasons (your mother is in the area or something)? And several of us told you to wait until prices were chopped in half and you didn’t believe us? Houses like this were in the 100K’s not that long ago, I would expect these to bottom in the low 200Ks, be patient.

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[an]

5yearwaiter,those “house” at the end of Avineda Venusto are manufactured homes. They also have no lot and no drive way. That’s a huge difference than these MM homes we’re talking about now.

[5yearwaiter]

Asianutica, You are correct no drive and no lot. BTW, heard that Manufactured homes generally the “land lord” never own the place just a house, is that correct?

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Asianutica, You are correct no drive and no lot. BTW, heard that Manufactured homes generally the “land lord” never own the place just a house, is that correct?

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Asianutica, You are correct no drive and no lot. BTW, heard that Manufactured homes generally the “land lord” never own the place just a house, is that correct?

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Asianutica, You are correct no drive and no lot. BTW, heard that Manufactured homes generally the “land lord” never own the place just a house, is that correct?

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Asianutica, You are correct no drive and no lot. BTW, heard that Manufactured homes generally the “land lord” never own the place just a house, is that correct?

5yearswaiter

[an]

5yearwaiter,those “house” at the end of Avineda Venusto are manufactured homes. They also have no lot and no drive way. That’s a huge difference than these MM homes we’re talking about now.

[an]

5yearwaiter,those “house” at the end of Avineda Venusto are manufactured homes. They also have no lot and no drive way. That’s a huge difference than these MM homes we’re talking about now.

[an]

5yearwaiter,those “house” at the end of Avineda Venusto are manufactured homes. They also have no lot and no drive way. That’s a huge difference than these MM homes we’re talking about now.

[an]

5yearwaiter,those “house” at the end of Avineda Venusto are manufactured homes. They also have no lot and no drive way. That’s a huge difference than these MM homes we’re talking about now.

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

The same 1300 SFT home near Rancho Bernardo High school at Avinida Venusto end of street also ready to get at around 300K. Is that worth to buy Mira Mesa at 300K than RB area 300K?.

5yearswaiter

[jimmyle]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066982-8337_Santa_Arminta_San_Diego_CA_92126

[jimmyle]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066982-8337_Santa_Arminta_San_Diego_CA_92126

[jimmyle]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066982-8337_Santa_Arminta_San_Diego_CA_92126

[jimmyle]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066982-8337_Santa_Arminta_San_Diego_CA_92126

[Coronita]

Not to hijack this thread. But what does something like 3/2 1300sqft home in Mira Mesa fetch in terms of rent these days?

 

Anyone a landlord can provide factual numbers that they are currently seeing?

 

Just pondering….

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[an]

FLU, it all depends on which part of MM. But the rent of a SFR 3/2 1300 sq-ft should fetch around 1600-1800/month. A 2bed/2bath apartment should fetch around 1300-1500/month to give some perspective.

[an]

FLU, it all depends on which part of MM. But the rent of a SFR 3/2 1300 sq-ft should fetch around 1600-1800/month. A 2bed/2bath apartment should fetch around 1300-1500/month to give some perspective.

[an]

FLU, it all depends on which part of MM. But the rent of a SFR 3/2 1300 sq-ft should fetch around 1600-1800/month. A 2bed/2bath apartment should fetch around 1300-1500/month to give some perspective.

[an]

FLU, it all depends on which part of MM. But the rent of a SFR 3/2 1300 sq-ft should fetch around 1600-1800/month. A 2bed/2bath apartment should fetch around 1300-1500/month to give some perspective.

[an]

FLU, it all depends on which part of MM. But the rent of a SFR 3/2 1300 sq-ft should fetch around 1600-1800/month. A 2bed/2bath apartment should fetch around 1300-1500/month to give some perspective.

[Coronita]

Not to hijack this thread. But what does something like 3/2 1300sqft home in Mira Mesa fetch in terms of rent these days?

 

Anyone a landlord can provide factual numbers that they are currently seeing?

 

Just pondering….

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Not to hijack this thread. But what does something like 3/2 1300sqft home in Mira Mesa fetch in terms of rent these days?

 

Anyone a landlord can provide factual numbers that they are currently seeing?

 

Just pondering….

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Not to hijack this thread. But what does something like 3/2 1300sqft home in Mira Mesa fetch in terms of rent these days?

 

Anyone a landlord can provide factual numbers that they are currently seeing?

 

Just pondering….

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Not to hijack this thread. But what does something like 3/2 1300sqft home in Mira Mesa fetch in terms of rent these days?

 

Anyone a landlord can provide factual numbers that they are currently seeing?

 

Just pondering….

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[DWCAP]

FLU, I rent a place in a better location with a very similar house, in the middle price range asianautica quoted. I moved in October 2006 and my rent hasnt and wont budge till at minimum November 2008. The house is nice, but not great. It sat empty for 2 months after the last tenant moved out. I really wont pay much more than I do now, I have seen essentally the same thing, but with a smaller yard (which is now big and really unused) for less.
I tried to do the math, and I cant see how the numbers work out unless the purchase price falls below 275k. At 275k, with a 10-20% down it starts to break even at todays rents, but dont expect much cash flow or return on down payment (lost opertunity). So basically this house needs to fall ANOTHER 20% before it begins to make sense as a rental, unless you dont mind a negative cash flow for a few years. I kinda ask why take that loss? We all know this isnt the bottom.

[DWCAP]

FLU, I rent a place in a better location with a very similar house, in the middle price range asianautica quoted. I moved in October 2006 and my rent hasnt and wont budge till at minimum November 2008. The house is nice, but not great. It sat empty for 2 months after the last tenant moved out. I really wont pay much more than I do now, I have seen essentally the same thing, but with a smaller yard (which is now big and really unused) for less.
I tried to do the math, and I cant see how the numbers work out unless the purchase price falls below 275k. At 275k, with a 10-20% down it starts to break even at todays rents, but dont expect much cash flow or return on down payment (lost opertunity). So basically this house needs to fall ANOTHER 20% before it begins to make sense as a rental, unless you dont mind a negative cash flow for a few years. I kinda ask why take that loss? We all know this isnt the bottom.

[DWCAP]

FLU, I rent a place in a better location with a very similar house, in the middle price range asianautica quoted. I moved in October 2006 and my rent hasnt and wont budge till at minimum November 2008. The house is nice, but not great. It sat empty for 2 months after the last tenant moved out. I really wont pay much more than I do now, I have seen essentally the same thing, but with a smaller yard (which is now big and really unused) for less.
I tried to do the math, and I cant see how the numbers work out unless the purchase price falls below 275k. At 275k, with a 10-20% down it starts to break even at todays rents, but dont expect much cash flow or return on down payment (lost opertunity). So basically this house needs to fall ANOTHER 20% before it begins to make sense as a rental, unless you dont mind a negative cash flow for a few years. I kinda ask why take that loss? We all know this isnt the bottom.

[DWCAP]

FLU, I rent a place in a better location with a very similar house, in the middle price range asianautica quoted. I moved in October 2006 and my rent hasnt and wont budge till at minimum November 2008. The house is nice, but not great. It sat empty for 2 months after the last tenant moved out. I really wont pay much more than I do now, I have seen essentally the same thing, but with a smaller yard (which is now big and really unused) for less.
I tried to do the math, and I cant see how the numbers work out unless the purchase price falls below 275k. At 275k, with a 10-20% down it starts to break even at todays rents, but dont expect much cash flow or return on down payment (lost opertunity). So basically this house needs to fall ANOTHER 20% before it begins to make sense as a rental, unless you dont mind a negative cash flow for a few years. I kinda ask why take that loss? We all know this isnt the bottom.

[DWCAP]

FLU, I rent a place in a better location with a very similar house, in the middle price range asianautica quoted. I moved in October 2006 and my rent hasnt and wont budge till at minimum November 2008. The house is nice, but not great. It sat empty for 2 months after the last tenant moved out. I really wont pay much more than I do now, I have seen essentally the same thing, but with a smaller yard (which is now big and really unused) for less.
I tried to do the math, and I cant see how the numbers work out unless the purchase price falls below 275k. At 275k, with a 10-20% down it starts to break even at todays rents, but dont expect much cash flow or return on down payment (lost opertunity). So basically this house needs to fall ANOTHER 20% before it begins to make sense as a rental, unless you dont mind a negative cash flow for a few years. I kinda ask why take that loss? We all know this isnt the bottom.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I dont really agree with all your numbers. They seem to optimistic.
First check the main page just below the latest entry. In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%. I know you said 2000, but I dont think there was a huge jump in wages the year we started sliding into the last recession.
Second, this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times. Remember the supposed jobless recovery of 2003-05? No jobs result in no wage growth. What wages/jobs growth their was for this segment of the population was in real estate, and over inflated as you said. It wont keep.
Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher. To assume that people can contribute the same level of income to payments now as they could after the longest and most broadly felt boom in the last century is ignoring the realities of 3.50 gas.
Fourth, sure interest rates are 5.8%, for you. Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest. And those nice low interest rates you use are only for the best buyers. Most of us dont actually get that rate, especially from risk adverse banks demanding 20% down payments that the “buyers” just dont have.
People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

Plus, something for FLU and all the rest to think about. In the same graph rich posted, rents are also tracked. They are up way over wages. (~10% more) If we are really sliding into a recession, with the job losses and everything else, do you really think that you can get a +10-15% rise in rents as is being discussed in other threads? The easy increases have already been had, anymore and you seriously jeperdize demand. I know, as I just posted, my current place sat empty for 2 months until they dropped the increase and accepted our application.

[Eugene]

In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%.

I’m not sure where Rich gets his numbers. Median household income for San Diego County according to http://www.census.gov:
2001: $46,845
2006: $59,591 (27% increase)

For San Diego proper:
2001: $46,315
2006: $58,815 (27% increase)

this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times.

In San Diego, bottom half / lower middle class does not get to own houses. There are not enough houses for everyone. Also, those numbers are median, not averages.

Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher.

That’s true. Not sure how important that is though.

Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest.

How do you think people bought houses back in 2001 and before, when banks weren’t giving away zero-down loans with funny interest rates to anyone with a pulse? You had to bring some cash to the table, even to buy a house in MM.

People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

The way I see it, MM is an entry level market, CV is a move-up market. You don’t buy your first house in CV. You buy in MM or Clairemont, you pay off your mortgage, you save money, then you trade up.

[kewp]

There are not enough houses for everyone.

If that were the case, houses would be getting more expensive, not less. There is a huge glut of vacant homes on the market, both bank and speculator owned.

Re: The San Diego median income. We’ll see what happens to that after all the bubbly jobs disappear over the next two years.

[kewp]

There are not enough houses for everyone.

If that were the case, houses would be getting more expensive, not less. There is a huge glut of vacant homes on the market, both bank and speculator owned.

Re: The San Diego median income. We’ll see what happens to that after all the bubbly jobs disappear over the next two years.

[kewp]

There are not enough houses for everyone.

If that were the case, houses would be getting more expensive, not less. There is a huge glut of vacant homes on the market, both bank and speculator owned.

Re: The San Diego median income. We’ll see what happens to that after all the bubbly jobs disappear over the next two years.

[kewp]

There are not enough houses for everyone.

If that were the case, houses would be getting more expensive, not less. There is a huge glut of vacant homes on the market, both bank and speculator owned.

Re: The San Diego median income. We’ll see what happens to that after all the bubbly jobs disappear over the next two years.

[kewp]

There are not enough houses for everyone.

If that were the case, houses would be getting more expensive, not less. There is a huge glut of vacant homes on the market, both bank and speculator owned.

Re: The San Diego median income. We’ll see what happens to that after all the bubbly jobs disappear over the next two years.

[Eugene]

In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%.

I’m not sure where Rich gets his numbers. Median household income for San Diego County according to http://www.census.gov:
2001: $46,845
2006: $59,591 (27% increase)

For San Diego proper:
2001: $46,315
2006: $58,815 (27% increase)

this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times.

In San Diego, bottom half / lower middle class does not get to own houses. There are not enough houses for everyone. Also, those numbers are median, not averages.

Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher.

That’s true. Not sure how important that is though.

Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest.

How do you think people bought houses back in 2001 and before, when banks weren’t giving away zero-down loans with funny interest rates to anyone with a pulse? You had to bring some cash to the table, even to buy a house in MM.

People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

The way I see it, MM is an entry level market, CV is a move-up market. You don’t buy your first house in CV. You buy in MM or Clairemont, you pay off your mortgage, you save money, then you trade up.

[Eugene]

In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%.

I’m not sure where Rich gets his numbers. Median household income for San Diego County according to http://www.census.gov:
2001: $46,845
2006: $59,591 (27% increase)

For San Diego proper:
2001: $46,315
2006: $58,815 (27% increase)

this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times.

In San Diego, bottom half / lower middle class does not get to own houses. There are not enough houses for everyone. Also, those numbers are median, not averages.

Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher.

That’s true. Not sure how important that is though.

Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest.

How do you think people bought houses back in 2001 and before, when banks weren’t giving away zero-down loans with funny interest rates to anyone with a pulse? You had to bring some cash to the table, even to buy a house in MM.

People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

The way I see it, MM is an entry level market, CV is a move-up market. You don’t buy your first house in CV. You buy in MM or Clairemont, you pay off your mortgage, you save money, then you trade up.

[Eugene]

In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%.

I’m not sure where Rich gets his numbers. Median household income for San Diego County according to http://www.census.gov:
2001: $46,845
2006: $59,591 (27% increase)

For San Diego proper:
2001: $46,315
2006: $58,815 (27% increase)

this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times.

In San Diego, bottom half / lower middle class does not get to own houses. There are not enough houses for everyone. Also, those numbers are median, not averages.

Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher.

That’s true. Not sure how important that is though.

Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest.

How do you think people bought houses back in 2001 and before, when banks weren’t giving away zero-down loans with funny interest rates to anyone with a pulse? You had to bring some cash to the table, even to buy a house in MM.

People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

The way I see it, MM is an entry level market, CV is a move-up market. You don’t buy your first house in CV. You buy in MM or Clairemont, you pay off your mortgage, you save money, then you trade up.

[Eugene]

In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%.

I’m not sure where Rich gets his numbers. Median household income for San Diego County according to http://www.census.gov:
2001: $46,845
2006: $59,591 (27% increase)

For San Diego proper:
2001: $46,315
2006: $58,815 (27% increase)

this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times.

In San Diego, bottom half / lower middle class does not get to own houses. There are not enough houses for everyone. Also, those numbers are median, not averages.

Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher.

That’s true. Not sure how important that is though.

Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest.

How do you think people bought houses back in 2001 and before, when banks weren’t giving away zero-down loans with funny interest rates to anyone with a pulse? You had to bring some cash to the table, even to buy a house in MM.

People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

The way I see it, MM is an entry level market, CV is a move-up market. You don’t buy your first house in CV. You buy in MM or Clairemont, you pay off your mortgage, you save money, then you trade up.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I dont really agree with all your numbers. They seem to optimistic.
First check the main page just below the latest entry. In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%. I know you said 2000, but I dont think there was a huge jump in wages the year we started sliding into the last recession.
Second, this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times. Remember the supposed jobless recovery of 2003-05? No jobs result in no wage growth. What wages/jobs growth their was for this segment of the population was in real estate, and over inflated as you said. It wont keep.
Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher. To assume that people can contribute the same level of income to payments now as they could after the longest and most broadly felt boom in the last century is ignoring the realities of 3.50 gas.
Fourth, sure interest rates are 5.8%, for you. Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest. And those nice low interest rates you use are only for the best buyers. Most of us dont actually get that rate, especially from risk adverse banks demanding 20% down payments that the “buyers” just dont have.
People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

Plus, something for FLU and all the rest to think about. In the same graph rich posted, rents are also tracked. They are up way over wages. (~10% more) If we are really sliding into a recession, with the job losses and everything else, do you really think that you can get a +10-15% rise in rents as is being discussed in other threads? The easy increases have already been had, anymore and you seriously jeperdize demand. I know, as I just posted, my current place sat empty for 2 months until they dropped the increase and accepted our application.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I dont really agree with all your numbers. They seem to optimistic.
First check the main page just below the latest entry. In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%. I know you said 2000, but I dont think there was a huge jump in wages the year we started sliding into the last recession.
Second, this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times. Remember the supposed jobless recovery of 2003-05? No jobs result in no wage growth. What wages/jobs growth their was for this segment of the population was in real estate, and over inflated as you said. It wont keep.
Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher. To assume that people can contribute the same level of income to payments now as they could after the longest and most broadly felt boom in the last century is ignoring the realities of 3.50 gas.
Fourth, sure interest rates are 5.8%, for you. Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest. And those nice low interest rates you use are only for the best buyers. Most of us dont actually get that rate, especially from risk adverse banks demanding 20% down payments that the “buyers” just dont have.
People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

Plus, something for FLU and all the rest to think about. In the same graph rich posted, rents are also tracked. They are up way over wages. (~10% more) If we are really sliding into a recession, with the job losses and everything else, do you really think that you can get a +10-15% rise in rents as is being discussed in other threads? The easy increases have already been had, anymore and you seriously jeperdize demand. I know, as I just posted, my current place sat empty for 2 months until they dropped the increase and accepted our application.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I dont really agree with all your numbers. They seem to optimistic.
First check the main page just below the latest entry. In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%. I know you said 2000, but I dont think there was a huge jump in wages the year we started sliding into the last recession.
Second, this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times. Remember the supposed jobless recovery of 2003-05? No jobs result in no wage growth. What wages/jobs growth their was for this segment of the population was in real estate, and over inflated as you said. It wont keep.
Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher. To assume that people can contribute the same level of income to payments now as they could after the longest and most broadly felt boom in the last century is ignoring the realities of 3.50 gas.
Fourth, sure interest rates are 5.8%, for you. Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest. And those nice low interest rates you use are only for the best buyers. Most of us dont actually get that rate, especially from risk adverse banks demanding 20% down payments that the “buyers” just dont have.
People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

Plus, something for FLU and all the rest to think about. In the same graph rich posted, rents are also tracked. They are up way over wages. (~10% more) If we are really sliding into a recession, with the job losses and everything else, do you really think that you can get a +10-15% rise in rents as is being discussed in other threads? The easy increases have already been had, anymore and you seriously jeperdize demand. I know, as I just posted, my current place sat empty for 2 months until they dropped the increase and accepted our application.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I dont really agree with all your numbers. They seem to optimistic.
First check the main page just below the latest entry. In the graph Rich graphs wages since 2001 and they are up maybe 18%, not 30%. I know you said 2000, but I dont think there was a huge jump in wages the year we started sliding into the last recession.
Second, this is a lower middle class area unless you are north of Calle Cristobal. Overall wages may be up ~18%, but the bottom half isnt feeling the good times. Remember the supposed jobless recovery of 2003-05? No jobs result in no wage growth. What wages/jobs growth their was for this segment of the population was in real estate, and over inflated as you said. It wont keep.
Third, it isnt like what wage growth was seen isnt being eaten away by gas, utilities, food and other inflation that is alot higher. To assume that people can contribute the same level of income to payments now as they could after the longest and most broadly felt boom in the last century is ignoring the realities of 3.50 gas.
Fourth, sure interest rates are 5.8%, for you. Most middle income people dont have $80000, let alone that in cash to invest. And those nice low interest rates you use are only for the best buyers. Most of us dont actually get that rate, especially from risk adverse banks demanding 20% down payments that the “buyers” just dont have.
People who can buy in carmel valley can easily buy in MM, but that doesnt mean that they want to live in MM.

Plus, something for FLU and all the rest to think about. In the same graph rich posted, rents are also tracked. They are up way over wages. (~10% more) If we are really sliding into a recession, with the job losses and everything else, do you really think that you can get a +10-15% rise in rents as is being discussed in other threads? The easy increases have already been had, anymore and you seriously jeperdize demand. I know, as I just posted, my current place sat empty for 2 months until they dropped the increase and accepted our application.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[DWCAP]

esmith,
I never said MM wasnt a first time owner market, while CV is a move up market. What I ment was the people who the bank wants to lend to dont want to live in this area generally. Good people live here, I hope to own my first home here someday, but more and more the traditional people who bought here are being squeezed out by higher costs and lower than normal pay raises. That is gonna squeeze the pool of potential buyers, lowering demand.
Second off. Lets explore affordability using your numbers. You say in 2001 median prices were 240000, and median wages $47000. That gives us a ratio of 5.1 years of income to cost of house (median income to median house). In 2007, median wages are 59000. You state that housing should be ~400000. That gives us a ratio of 6.8. That is an extra 1.7 years of wages or roughly a 33% increase. When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie <10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

[DWCAP]

When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie less then 10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

Sorry, post cut off half way.

[DWCAP]

When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie less then 10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

Sorry, post cut off half way.

[DWCAP]

When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie less then 10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

Sorry, post cut off half way.

[DWCAP]

When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie less then 10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

Sorry, post cut off half way.

[DWCAP]

When factoring in increased costs of living, where are people in their late 20’s to early 30’s with good incomes but short (ie less then 10 year) credit histories and the resulting higher interest rates gonna get that increased buying power? Using the 5.1 income/cost ratio, median prices should be $300000. This is a roughly 10%-20% premium to rents, and low and behold down payments are usually in that range.
As for down payments, ofcourse people use to do it. They always have, always will. I have been saving money since I was 14. I have my down payment. Could have put 20% back in 2005 at the peak. I got lucky, most are not as lucky as I am. What I ment by that is it will affect demand. I dont care how much you want a house, if the bank wont lend and you make too much for some of these questionable government sponsored down payment programs, you cant buy. Prices will have to reflect this.

Sorry, post cut off half way.

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