There are only two choices There are only two choices because one of the two will win the elections.
Since we are so smart, let’s see the Piggs’ ability to predict the future. 🙂
Also be sure to indicate why you think that candidate will win. Try to be objective. You can predict an outcome and actually vote for someone else.
I personally think that “it’s the economy stupid.” People are sick of the Republicans and they want something new. So it looks like Obama is “the one”. Maybe blessed by God to be at the right place, at the right time?
Obama and Biden also have great smiles. I’m sure people go for that.
McCain looks like a frustrated old man. Sure, Palin might be fun to have a beer with, but she’s a dingbat.
patientlywaiting
October 16, 2008 @
12:12 AM
It looks like a landslide for It looks like a landslide for Obama in electoral votes. We shall see election day. I’m going to stay up and watch the election results.
It’s interesting to look at the map. What are the conclusions one would draw from the map?
I think that the Bradley factor will come into play. I just wonder by how much.
cr
October 16, 2008 @
3:01 PM
patientlywaiting wrote:There [quote=patientlywaiting]There are only two choices because one of the two will win.[/quote]
As long as everyone thinks that, then you’re right.
rnen
October 16, 2008 @
6:26 AM
Won’t be a land slide but Won’t be a land slide but NObama will win.
A democrat controlled senate, congress and President. There is a shit storm brewing.
Ya,I know Bush and the repubs have been brutal and I could not agree more but just when you thought things could not get any worse….
svelte
October 16, 2008 @
7:34 AM
Wife and I were laying plans Wife and I were laying plans to drive to Nevada to help drive Democrats to the polls, but we are standing down on those plans now. Unless something changes drastically in the next two weeks, that probably isn’t necessary.
patientlywaiting
October 16, 2008 @
10:00 AM
The Charlie Rose coverage of The Charlie Rose coverage of the debate was pretty good.
David Brooks is predicting that McCain will lose. David Brooks is pretty partisan but he doesn’t like Palin.
I agree that given the recent I agree that given the recent economic downturn, Democrats are going to do very well in November. I’ve seen speculation that the Democrats may come close to a 60-40 majority in the senate, which is enough to override a filibuster. In all likelyhood it will be closer to 58 or 59 (and that’s assuming they keep Joe Lieberman in the fold). Regardless, it looks like the Dems will have at least 2 years to try to clean up the current mess; I’m not sure 2 years or even 4 is enough though.
kev374
October 16, 2008 @
10:59 AM
it will take a miracle for it will take a miracle for McCain to win especially since he goofed up with the whole bailout thing. He is just an idiot, his core supporters don’t favor bailouts and he alienated many of them. $300 billion to lower people’s mortgages so that they can stay in the house they shouldn’t have bought in the first place is total and complete lunacy!
So the marxist will win in November.
CDMA ENG
October 16, 2008 @
11:36 AM
Hahaha,
So far I am the only Hahaha,
So far I am the only who voted McCain. Obama is indeed popular and he has a lot of Hype and “Word of Mouth”. But I have this wierd feeling there is a unheard segment of hardcore right wingers who will come out of the woodwork on Voting day. Remember most of the McCain votes will be passed by 8AM. Remember old people vote early in the morning.
It is going to be a close one not without contravesy (m.s.).
Well this poll says it all, Well this poll says it all, and I am little surprised since so many Piggs seem to lean to the right, but then capitulation may account for the weighting. According to CNN, about four states remain undecided, but show some signs of being more supportive of Obama. McCain would have to win all of these, including two or three other states that have already shown a stronger Obama base. Saving a miraculous turn around, it seems the odds are stacked against McCain by a healthy margin. I personally was sorry that Clinton couldn’t at least have been on the ticket with Obama, but maybe that is being idealistic.
The question really is what will change? Probably not very much, since everyone is agreed on what the main issues are. I see differences as administrative more than ideological. Obama strikes me as an administrator, and a pragmatist, and that’s what is needed right now. My faith has been renewed that (most) American people have at last come to their senses. I am sorry if that sounds condescending, but it is sometimes a little confusing to understand how someone like Bush became President.
an
October 16, 2008 @
8:02 PM
Now that the majority of Now that the majority of Piggs agree on who will probably win the election, can we get back to the “scheduled programming” of the housing market? In four years, we’ll see if the country made the right decision or not.
Eugene
October 16, 2008 @
8:18 PM
Intrade puts the probability Intrade puts the probability of Obama’s win at 85%. It was below 50% just a month ago. The fact that our stock market lost a quarter of its value in one month may have something to do with it.
Public opinion is heavily in favor of Obama; however, the amount of money behind McCain and Republicans is not to be underestimated. I think that we’re in for a big surprise in the coming week or two.
Let’s just say that I wouldn’t want to be Obama right now.
equalizer
October 16, 2008 @
9:15 PM
Cindy is measuring the silk Cindy is measuring the silk drapes now. The polls are showing drift away from Obama, Gallop national poll shows only +2 lead for Obama, well within margin of error!!! Game over. Remember, President Bush won TWICE. I think what you people are forgetting is the electoral college. I will grant that Obama will most likely win the popular vote, but will lose electoral college with maximum of 267 EC just like in 2000. To counter fear votes, Bradley effect, Obama would have to be leading by 7 points in BG states, but he is even to only up only 3pts.
That so called great one is no Bill Clinton. Bill not only switched to the center, he did what it took to win, whether it meant executing mentally insane, stealing Gingrich playbook, etc. Bill would have had that Ayers punk arrested and shipped to Gitmo and sucked up big time to Joe the plumber.
There have been no neg ads against Obama yet, just wait for SwiftPlunging from Joe the Plumber and for more effect good people in Ohio, Nev will be reminded of Obama’s take on driver’s license in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Kqrdjy4znk.
PS
Barry at http://bigpicture.typepad.com/ has shown that intrade can be gamed. An Irish bookmaker already paid out votes for Obama, sure to fire up anti-Obama votes.
PSS
Dem superdelegates were afraid of Jackson riots in the streets if they picked Hillary, who would have crushed McCain if she hid Bill.
Eugene
October 16, 2008 @
9:56 PM
Gallop national poll shows Gallop national poll shows only +2 lead for Obama, well within margin of error!!! Game over.
In a parallel universe, maybe? In our universe Obama leads McCain by 6 points among registered voters and by 7 points among likely voters. He’s ahead of McCain by significant margins in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Colorado, and it looks like he’ll be the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to take both Virginia and North Carolina.
McCain and Obama were close within margin of error till mid-September. Since then, McCain lost all three debates, Palin performed better than expected but nevertheless lost to Biden, and, worst of all, Lehman Brothers had the misfortune of going bankrupt two months too soon. Ensuing stock market crash made people too worried about the economy – and the economy is seen as one of Obama’s strengths.
Right now, McCain no longer has any hope of catching up with Obama by any “regular” means. No more debates left, early voting underway, and the gap is too big to close it by more negative ads. Even if the stock market stages a 2000 point rally leading up to elections, that would not be sufficient.
At this point, McCain has only one chance to win. He must destroy Obama, either figuratively (destroy him as a politician) or literally. The first possibility is that his camp has an ace in the hole and the ace will be played in the next week or two. And it has to be big. Like a teenage girl who steps forward and accuses Obama of molesting him (complete with proof like semen stains). It would be a huge scandal, it would definitely sink Obama if true, could sink him even if it isn’t.
If orchestrating a molestation claim is too complicated, a much easier solution is to send Obama to meet his maker. Schedule the event around the last weekend before the election. For starters, all early-voting ballots cast for Obama would become void. There wouldn’t be enough time to organize the Democratic party around the new candidate, some states wouldn’t have time to print new ballots, some swing voters would vote for McCain over whoever Democrats choose to replace Obama. With all the confusion, McCain would easily win the elections.
And the best part? McCain does not even have to be involved. There’s probably a few hundred thousand people in this country who’d benefit from the move – even after taking the cost of hiring a killer into account. All it takes is one.
equalizer
October 16, 2008 @
10:24 PM
Esmith,
On that Gallup page, Esmith,
On that Gallup page, the likely traditional voters it is 49 to 47, which is a lot more believable because only few undecided. Remember that dems and young people are either lazy or are working two jobs and don’t have time to vote. Could be biggest upset since Dewey, but will be no surprise to me. War hero vs the shady Professor, no contest for rural voters.
I think in 2000, MO senator died before election day but still won (against Ashcroft?) and his wife took the seat, so there would be too many sympathy votes for that to work, hypothetically speaking of course.
Heard several republicans state last week that only chance McCain had was if a shooting or blast occurred that reminded people of terror. Couldn’t believe they said that out loud.
Eugene
October 17, 2008 @
2:02 AM
The poll is 49 to 43 among The poll is 49 to 43 among “expanded” voters, and quite a few of those claiming the intent to vote for Obama have never voted before. Many of those are probably blacks. It’s hard to say how many will really show up, but we should not discount that category entirely.
The thing with dying before election day, first the Democratic party must convene and designate a new candidate, that by itself would be a challenge. Biden or Clinton for the president? Who’s going to be the VP?
Then there are many different states, they all have to handle the switch, some of the more backward ones may not have time to print new ballots and they would rely on write-ins. Early votes for Obama won’t count as votes for Biden or Clinton. There’s a sympathy factor, but there are too many contravening factors, and McCain just needs to grab a few blue states to move into the White House.
The terrorist attack is another possibility I haven’t thought of. It would have to be big too, on the scale of 9/11, to get people’s minds off the economy. BTW I don’t think that terrorists would actually plan anything for this time, Obama is generally more liked outside the U.S. and his foreign policy positions are more conciliatory. Middle East Muslims would much rather see Obama in charge.
patientlywaiting
October 17, 2008 @
8:51 AM
esmith wrote: Obama is [quote=esmith] Obama is generally more liked outside the U.S. and his foreign policy positions are more conciliatory. Middle East Muslims would much rather see Obama in charge.[/quote]
I agree that most in the Middle East would rather have Obama than McCain.
But I believe that the terrorists would rather have Bush III. Fighting America is a huge recruiting tool and keeps their ideological fire burning.
gandalf
October 17, 2008 @
9:35 AM
qwerty, I agree with your qwerty, I agree with your assessment. Nicely said. Obama is a pragmatic centrist, administrator, not idealist. Only the GOP smear machine says otherwise.
Ironic, but I’m looking forward to the day when the GOP (or some other party) ‘makes sense’ again to conservatives. Not talking fake-Christian Sarah Palin racist-freak social conservatives. I mean conservative in the traditional sense. Gen-X libertarian. For now, the dems are doing the right thing. Sensible, pragmatic shift towards center. Democrats have more conservative policy positions than republicans. (Intentionally disregarding the wedge-issue social policy bullshit.)
Amazing, but the risk the GOP is running right now is the death of their party. There are so many independents and Ron Paul protest voters, the numbers are huge. The values gap is generational. Today’s GOP represents the values of dying seniors and baby boomers reliving Vietnam. I give it 50/50 odds a new party emerges in the next decade and replaces the GOP. That should be a tradeable position on intrade.
gandalf
October 17, 2008 @
9:53 AM
Racism is a factor. GOP is Racism is a factor. GOP is playing the race card. All they have left at this point. I don’t think it will sway the outcome at this point. Obama will win.
Something to watch, the racist Sarah Palin ‘patriot’ factor increases the likelihood of assassination or OKC-style right-wing domestic terrorism.
anxvariety
October 17, 2008 @
11:20 AM
Comes down to experience. Comes down to experience. People are playing American Idol right now.. but when they get down to the booth they’ll realize we need someone with experience and who won’t raise taxes on EMPLOYERS.
Race is irrelevant except for quitters and people who need to divert attention from the real issues. We have a half-black half-white presidential candidate, that doesn’t happen in a country that is as bad as what the weak minded want to make it seem – scapegoating.
Like McCain so beautifully said:
“Senator Obama says that he wanted to spread your wealth around. When politicians talk about taking your money and spreading it around, you’d better hold onto your wallet. Senator Obama claims that wants to give a tax break to the middle class, but not only did he vote for higher taxes on the middle class in the Senate, his plan gives away your tax dollars to those who don’t pay taxes.
That’s not a tax cut, that’s welfare. America didn’t become the greatest nation on earth by redistributing wealth; we became the greatest nation by creating new wealth.
“
adelord
October 17, 2008 @
5:32 PM
Rumor has it (politico.com) Rumor has it (politico.com) that Colin Powell will endorse Obama this Sunday on Meet the Press. If true, my estimation of Obama’s chance of winning will go from “highly likely” to “damn near fact”.
svelte
October 18, 2008 @
12:55 PM
Dudes, Obama drew over Dudes, Obama drew over 100,000 people at a rally in St Louis today. A hundred thousand people! In St Louis!
Don’t take my word for it, look at the photos yourselves:
I know, dailykos is as Dem-biased as Faux News is Rep-biased, but those photos don’t lie.
This man has created a stir like I have never witnessed. People are really fired up this year.
kewp
October 18, 2008 @
12:58 PM
Joe Biden. Joe Biden.
Veritas
October 18, 2008 @
1:54 PM
And Gore was ahead of Bush in And Gore was ahead of Bush in all the polls.
svelte
October 18, 2008 @
10:33 PM
Veritas wrote:And Gore was [quote=Veritas]And Gore was ahead of Bush in all the polls.[/quote]
Ya think that may have been because he got more of the popular vote on election day??
But the electoral college did not cooperate…and personally in a way I’m glad since I never liked Gore. We had two bad choices in that election….
This time around, all the focus is on the electoral college which, from what I can tell, is even more favorable to Obama than the popular vote.
Allan from Fallbrook
October 18, 2008 @
10:54 PM
svelte: It never ceases to svelte: It never ceases to amaze whenever people reference the “popular vote”. We are NOT a democracy, we ARE a republic. The Electoral College was created to reflect this reality, as well as the fear of the Founding Fathers of an unchecked populace (read “mob rule”).
The popular vote is NOT the determining factor in Presidential elections, and both Democrats and Republicans exploit the ignorance of voters whenever they start harping on the popular vote.
So what if Al Gore had more popular votes? It doesn’t mean dick when determining who becomes President.
equalizer
October 19, 2008 @
12:16 AM
Democrat Barack Obama’s lead Democrat Barack Obama’s lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race has dropped to 3 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday. Obama leads McCain by 48 to 45 percent among likely U.S. voters, down 1 percentage point from Saturday.
The plumber beat the Harvard law grad and every day its a 1 point slide for Obama. Pres. Reagan was down 10 points in the polls weeks before election and got over 500 in EC. I knew that were way too many undecided and that was a bad omen for Obama. The undecided will now all swing away from Obama. Hammer a “negative” message like welfare and you can immediately transfix the electorate with an emotional bond. Remember that most voters didn’t graduate from ivy league college sipping their $5 lattes discussing Tolstoy,Marx,etc and hating America. Real Americans are inherently good and think like Kant even if they are just plumbers and never been to Columbia.
Listen to all the chatter about the real American states and real VA (“northern VA is commie place”, McCain’s brother) and one would think the civil war was not over. Its not.
I think Obama will win, but I think Obama will win, but think the Repubs will stop at NOTHING to seal a victory for a ridiculous ticket.
And let’s talk about “voting irregularities.” I find it telling that McCain is stumping around about ACORN when there are touch-screen voting machines racking up points for McCain every time someone votes for Obama. The only thing worse than a liar is a cheat–who goes around pretending to be a hero.
Then there is the very real possibility that the GOP serves up Bin Laden’s head to McCain right before election day. Haven’t seen any new videos of bin landen recently and I don’t think the GOP would necessarily broadcast that they’d found him until it gives them some political advantage. Politics and power over country. Like reading an Orwell novel every time I hear McCain/Palin speak out loud.
And while I also fear personal attacks on the candidates, I find it very distressing that so many people are talking about it so openly. It is taboo to my mind that either candidate be attacked–although it is perhaps equally likely that McCain’s ticker (or a brain hemorahage) does him in.
Crazy times….
DWCAP
October 19, 2008 @
1:41 AM
Shadowfax wrote:I think Obama [quote=Shadowfax]I think Obama will win, but think the Repubs will stop at NOTHING to seal a victory for a ridiculous ticket.
And let’s talk about “voting irregularities.” I find it telling that McCain is stumping around about ACORN when there are touch-screen voting machines racking up points for McCain every time someone votes for Obama. The only thing worse than a liar is a cheat–who goes around pretending to be a hero.
Then there is the very real possibility that the GOP serves up Bin Laden’s head to McCain right before election day. Haven’t seen any new videos of bin landen recently and I don’t think the GOP would necessarily broadcast that they’d found him until it gives them some political advantage. Politics and power over country. Like reading an Orwell novel every time I hear McCain/Palin speak out loud.
And while I also fear personal attacks on the candidates, I find it very distressing that so many people are talking about it so openly. It is taboo to my mind that either candidate be attacked–although it is perhaps equally likely that McCain’s ticker (or a brain hemorahage) does him in.
Crazy times….[/quote]
I have to admit, I have not heard about this one. Who is using touch screen voting 3 weeks before the election? Care to give a link?
Allan from Fallbrook
October 19, 2008 @
1:53 AM
Shadowfax: Out of curiosity, Shadowfax: Out of curiosity, which Orwell novel do you think of? “Animal Farm”? “1984”? “A Clergyman’s Daughter”?
It’s interesting to accuse someone who fought against Communism, especially the sort of devout Marxist-Leninism practiced by the North Vietnamese and National Liberation Front, of sounding like something out of Orwell. Orwell presciently warned about control of culture and language, something the leftists in this country do so well with Political Correctness and identity politics, and yet it’s McCain being accused.
And I’m sure the GOP knows exactly where bin Laden is and he’ll somehow be delivered, trussed up like a goose, on the 3rd of November.
Failing that, the GOP will orchestrate a massive virus that will simultaneously strike all of the Diebold machines throughout the US.
I’m not voting for either Obama or McCain, but don’t dare to accuse a man who spent years in captivity being tortured of “pretending to be a hero”. I cannot imagine you have even a moments experience of the kind of privations he suffered, and to spout that kind of insulting nonsense disrespects every POW, including those still there, of that awful war.
Veritas
October 19, 2008 @
11:12 AM
If Obama wins it is because If Obama wins it is because he did it the American way- he bought the election by outspending McCain four to one. Hurray for money.
svelte
October 18, 2008 @
10:34 PM
kewp wrote:Joe Biden.
Sarah [quote=kewp]Joe Biden.[/quote]
Sarah Palin.
Checkmate.
pk92108
October 20, 2008 @
1:32 PM
I can’t imagine either one I can’t imagine either one being Prez….Am I the only one????..But I would say Obama will win because people want “change” even though they don’t know the details of change…
What really will kill is that Obama has ideas of lifting the cap on the social security tax…Now part of your income over the mid 80s (i forget the exact #) will be subjected to the 12.4% tax..Double that if you are self employed and have to pay both the employee and employer sides….
The left is all about redistributing income and penalizing success…Maybe instead of smoking pot in college, these lefties should have applied themselves and gotten real jobs..But because they screwed up, they have to inflicted their wrath on those who sacrficed and worked hard..(end of rant)…
October 15, 2008 @ 11:35 PM
There are only two choices
There are only two choices because one of the two will win the elections.
Since we are so smart, let’s see the Piggs’ ability to predict the future. 🙂
Also be sure to indicate why you think that candidate will win. Try to be objective. You can predict an outcome and actually vote for someone else.
I personally think that “it’s the economy stupid.” People are sick of the Republicans and they want something new. So it looks like Obama is “the one”. Maybe blessed by God to be at the right place, at the right time?
Obama and Biden also have great smiles. I’m sure people go for that.
McCain looks like a frustrated old man. Sure, Palin might be fun to have a beer with, but she’s a dingbat.
October 16, 2008 @ 12:12 AM
It looks like a landslide for
It looks like a landslide for Obama in electoral votes. We shall see election day. I’m going to stay up and watch the election results.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
It’s interesting to look at the map. What are the conclusions one would draw from the map?
I think that the Bradley factor will come into play. I just wonder by how much.
October 16, 2008 @ 3:01 PM
patientlywaiting wrote:There
[quote=patientlywaiting]There are only two choices because one of the two will win.[/quote]
As long as everyone thinks that, then you’re right.
October 16, 2008 @ 6:26 AM
Won’t be a land slide but
Won’t be a land slide but NObama will win.
A democrat controlled senate, congress and President. There is a shit storm brewing.
Ya,I know Bush and the repubs have been brutal and I could not agree more but just when you thought things could not get any worse….
October 16, 2008 @ 7:34 AM
Wife and I were laying plans
Wife and I were laying plans to drive to Nevada to help drive Democrats to the polls, but we are standing down on those plans now. Unless something changes drastically in the next two weeks, that probably isn’t necessary.
October 16, 2008 @ 10:00 AM
The Charlie Rose coverage of
The Charlie Rose coverage of the debate was pretty good.
David Brooks is predicting that McCain will lose. David Brooks is pretty partisan but he doesn’t like Palin.
http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/10/15/1/live-coverage-of-the-third-presidential-debate
October 16, 2008 @ 10:53 AM
I agree that given the recent
I agree that given the recent economic downturn, Democrats are going to do very well in November. I’ve seen speculation that the Democrats may come close to a 60-40 majority in the senate, which is enough to override a filibuster. In all likelyhood it will be closer to 58 or 59 (and that’s assuming they keep Joe Lieberman in the fold). Regardless, it looks like the Dems will have at least 2 years to try to clean up the current mess; I’m not sure 2 years or even 4 is enough though.
October 16, 2008 @ 10:59 AM
it will take a miracle for
it will take a miracle for McCain to win especially since he goofed up with the whole bailout thing. He is just an idiot, his core supporters don’t favor bailouts and he alienated many of them. $300 billion to lower people’s mortgages so that they can stay in the house they shouldn’t have bought in the first place is total and complete lunacy!
So the marxist will win in November.
October 16, 2008 @ 11:36 AM
Hahaha,
So far I am the only
Hahaha,
So far I am the only who voted McCain. Obama is indeed popular and he has a lot of Hype and “Word of Mouth”. But I have this wierd feeling there is a unheard segment of hardcore right wingers who will come out of the woodwork on Voting day. Remember most of the McCain votes will be passed by 8AM. Remember old people vote early in the morning.
It is going to be a close one not without contravesy (m.s.).
CE
October 16, 2008 @ 1:57 PM
Another electoral
Another electoral map
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,0,2338623.htmlstory
October 16, 2008 @ 7:18 PM
Well this poll says it all,
Well this poll says it all, and I am little surprised since so many Piggs seem to lean to the right, but then capitulation may account for the weighting. According to CNN, about four states remain undecided, but show some signs of being more supportive of Obama. McCain would have to win all of these, including two or three other states that have already shown a stronger Obama base. Saving a miraculous turn around, it seems the odds are stacked against McCain by a healthy margin. I personally was sorry that Clinton couldn’t at least have been on the ticket with Obama, but maybe that is being idealistic.
The question really is what will change? Probably not very much, since everyone is agreed on what the main issues are. I see differences as administrative more than ideological. Obama strikes me as an administrator, and a pragmatist, and that’s what is needed right now. My faith has been renewed that (most) American people have at last come to their senses. I am sorry if that sounds condescending, but it is sometimes a little confusing to understand how someone like Bush became President.
October 16, 2008 @ 8:02 PM
Now that the majority of
Now that the majority of Piggs agree on who will probably win the election, can we get back to the “scheduled programming” of the housing market? In four years, we’ll see if the country made the right decision or not.
October 16, 2008 @ 8:18 PM
Intrade puts the probability
Intrade puts the probability of Obama’s win at 85%. It was below 50% just a month ago. The fact that our stock market lost a quarter of its value in one month may have something to do with it.
Public opinion is heavily in favor of Obama; however, the amount of money behind McCain and Republicans is not to be underestimated. I think that we’re in for a big surprise in the coming week or two.
Let’s just say that I wouldn’t want to be Obama right now.
October 16, 2008 @ 9:15 PM
Cindy is measuring the silk
Cindy is measuring the silk drapes now. The polls are showing drift away from Obama, Gallop national poll shows only +2 lead for Obama, well within margin of error!!! Game over. Remember, President Bush won TWICE. I think what you people are forgetting is the electoral college. I will grant that Obama will most likely win the popular vote, but will lose electoral college with maximum of 267 EC just like in 2000. To counter fear votes, Bradley effect, Obama would have to be leading by 7 points in BG states, but he is even to only up only 3pts.
That so called great one is no Bill Clinton. Bill not only switched to the center, he did what it took to win, whether it meant executing mentally insane, stealing Gingrich playbook, etc. Bill would have had that Ayers punk arrested and shipped to Gitmo and sucked up big time to Joe the plumber.
There have been no neg ads against Obama yet, just wait for SwiftPlunging from Joe the Plumber and for more effect good people in Ohio, Nev will be reminded of Obama’s take on driver’s license in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Kqrdjy4znk.
PS
Barry at http://bigpicture.typepad.com/ has shown that intrade can be gamed. An Irish bookmaker already paid out votes for Obama, sure to fire up anti-Obama votes.
PSS
Dem superdelegates were afraid of Jackson riots in the streets if they picked Hillary, who would have crushed McCain if she hid Bill.
October 16, 2008 @ 9:56 PM
Gallop national poll shows
Gallop national poll shows only +2 lead for Obama, well within margin of error!!! Game over.
In a parallel universe, maybe? In our universe Obama leads McCain by 6 points among registered voters and by 7 points among likely voters. He’s ahead of McCain by significant margins in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Colorado, and it looks like he’ll be the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to take both Virginia and North Carolina.
McCain and Obama were close within margin of error till mid-September. Since then, McCain lost all three debates, Palin performed better than expected but nevertheless lost to Biden, and, worst of all, Lehman Brothers had the misfortune of going bankrupt two months too soon. Ensuing stock market crash made people too worried about the economy – and the economy is seen as one of Obama’s strengths.
Right now, McCain no longer has any hope of catching up with Obama by any “regular” means. No more debates left, early voting underway, and the gap is too big to close it by more negative ads. Even if the stock market stages a 2000 point rally leading up to elections, that would not be sufficient.
At this point, McCain has only one chance to win. He must destroy Obama, either figuratively (destroy him as a politician) or literally. The first possibility is that his camp has an ace in the hole and the ace will be played in the next week or two. And it has to be big. Like a teenage girl who steps forward and accuses Obama of molesting him (complete with proof like semen stains). It would be a huge scandal, it would definitely sink Obama if true, could sink him even if it isn’t.
If orchestrating a molestation claim is too complicated, a much easier solution is to send Obama to meet his maker. Schedule the event around the last weekend before the election. For starters, all early-voting ballots cast for Obama would become void. There wouldn’t be enough time to organize the Democratic party around the new candidate, some states wouldn’t have time to print new ballots, some swing voters would vote for McCain over whoever Democrats choose to replace Obama. With all the confusion, McCain would easily win the elections.
And the best part? McCain does not even have to be involved. There’s probably a few hundred thousand people in this country who’d benefit from the move – even after taking the cost of hiring a killer into account. All it takes is one.
October 16, 2008 @ 10:24 PM
Esmith,
On that Gallup page,
Esmith,
On that Gallup page, the likely traditional voters it is 49 to 47, which is a lot more believable because only few undecided. Remember that dems and young people are either lazy or are working two jobs and don’t have time to vote. Could be biggest upset since Dewey, but will be no surprise to me. War hero vs the shady Professor, no contest for rural voters.
I think in 2000, MO senator died before election day but still won (against Ashcroft?) and his wife took the seat, so there would be too many sympathy votes for that to work, hypothetically speaking of course.
Heard several republicans state last week that only chance McCain had was if a shooting or blast occurred that reminded people of terror. Couldn’t believe they said that out loud.
October 17, 2008 @ 2:02 AM
The poll is 49 to 43 among
The poll is 49 to 43 among “expanded” voters, and quite a few of those claiming the intent to vote for Obama have never voted before. Many of those are probably blacks. It’s hard to say how many will really show up, but we should not discount that category entirely.
The thing with dying before election day, first the Democratic party must convene and designate a new candidate, that by itself would be a challenge. Biden or Clinton for the president? Who’s going to be the VP?
Then there are many different states, they all have to handle the switch, some of the more backward ones may not have time to print new ballots and they would rely on write-ins. Early votes for Obama won’t count as votes for Biden or Clinton. There’s a sympathy factor, but there are too many contravening factors, and McCain just needs to grab a few blue states to move into the White House.
The terrorist attack is another possibility I haven’t thought of. It would have to be big too, on the scale of 9/11, to get people’s minds off the economy. BTW I don’t think that terrorists would actually plan anything for this time, Obama is generally more liked outside the U.S. and his foreign policy positions are more conciliatory. Middle East Muslims would much rather see Obama in charge.
October 17, 2008 @ 8:51 AM
esmith wrote: Obama is
[quote=esmith] Obama is generally more liked outside the U.S. and his foreign policy positions are more conciliatory. Middle East Muslims would much rather see Obama in charge.[/quote]
I agree that most in the Middle East would rather have Obama than McCain.
But I believe that the terrorists would rather have Bush III. Fighting America is a huge recruiting tool and keeps their ideological fire burning.
October 17, 2008 @ 9:35 AM
qwerty, I agree with your
qwerty, I agree with your assessment. Nicely said. Obama is a pragmatic centrist, administrator, not idealist. Only the GOP smear machine says otherwise.
Ironic, but I’m looking forward to the day when the GOP (or some other party) ‘makes sense’ again to conservatives. Not talking fake-Christian Sarah Palin racist-freak social conservatives. I mean conservative in the traditional sense. Gen-X libertarian. For now, the dems are doing the right thing. Sensible, pragmatic shift towards center. Democrats have more conservative policy positions than republicans. (Intentionally disregarding the wedge-issue social policy bullshit.)
Amazing, but the risk the GOP is running right now is the death of their party. There are so many independents and Ron Paul protest voters, the numbers are huge. The values gap is generational. Today’s GOP represents the values of dying seniors and baby boomers reliving Vietnam. I give it 50/50 odds a new party emerges in the next decade and replaces the GOP. That should be a tradeable position on intrade.
October 17, 2008 @ 9:53 AM
Racism is a factor. GOP is
Racism is a factor. GOP is playing the race card. All they have left at this point. I don’t think it will sway the outcome at this point. Obama will win.
Something to watch, the racist Sarah Palin ‘patriot’ factor increases the likelihood of assassination or OKC-style right-wing domestic terrorism.
October 17, 2008 @ 11:20 AM
Comes down to experience.
Comes down to experience. People are playing American Idol right now.. but when they get down to the booth they’ll realize we need someone with experience and who won’t raise taxes on EMPLOYERS.
Race is irrelevant except for quitters and people who need to divert attention from the real issues. We have a half-black half-white presidential candidate, that doesn’t happen in a country that is as bad as what the weak minded want to make it seem – scapegoating.
Like McCain so beautifully said:
“Senator Obama says that he wanted to spread your wealth around. When politicians talk about taking your money and spreading it around, you’d better hold onto your wallet. Senator Obama claims that wants to give a tax break to the middle class, but not only did he vote for higher taxes on the middle class in the Senate, his plan gives away your tax dollars to those who don’t pay taxes.
That’s not a tax cut, that’s welfare. America didn’t become the greatest nation on earth by redistributing wealth; we became the greatest nation by creating new wealth.
“
October 17, 2008 @ 5:32 PM
Rumor has it (politico.com)
Rumor has it (politico.com) that Colin Powell will endorse Obama this Sunday on Meet the Press. If true, my estimation of Obama’s chance of winning will go from “highly likely” to “damn near fact”.
October 18, 2008 @ 12:55 PM
Dudes, Obama drew over
Dudes, Obama drew over 100,000 people at a rally in St Louis today. A hundred thousand people! In St Louis!
Don’t take my word for it, look at the photos yourselves:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/18/12630/064/131/634471
I know, dailykos is as Dem-biased as Faux News is Rep-biased, but those photos don’t lie.
This man has created a stir like I have never witnessed. People are really fired up this year.
October 18, 2008 @ 12:58 PM
Joe Biden.
Joe Biden.
October 18, 2008 @ 1:54 PM
And Gore was ahead of Bush in
And Gore was ahead of Bush in all the polls.
October 18, 2008 @ 10:33 PM
Veritas wrote:And Gore was
[quote=Veritas]And Gore was ahead of Bush in all the polls.[/quote]
Ya think that may have been because he got more of the popular vote on election day??
But the electoral college did not cooperate…and personally in a way I’m glad since I never liked Gore. We had two bad choices in that election….
This time around, all the focus is on the electoral college which, from what I can tell, is even more favorable to Obama than the popular vote.
October 18, 2008 @ 10:54 PM
svelte: It never ceases to
svelte: It never ceases to amaze whenever people reference the “popular vote”. We are NOT a democracy, we ARE a republic. The Electoral College was created to reflect this reality, as well as the fear of the Founding Fathers of an unchecked populace (read “mob rule”).
The popular vote is NOT the determining factor in Presidential elections, and both Democrats and Republicans exploit the ignorance of voters whenever they start harping on the popular vote.
So what if Al Gore had more popular votes? It doesn’t mean dick when determining who becomes President.
October 19, 2008 @ 12:16 AM
Democrat Barack Obama’s lead
Democrat Barack Obama’s lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race has dropped to 3 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday. Obama leads McCain by 48 to 45 percent among likely U.S. voters, down 1 percentage point from Saturday.
The plumber beat the Harvard law grad and every day its a 1 point slide for Obama. Pres. Reagan was down 10 points in the polls weeks before election and got over 500 in EC. I knew that were way too many undecided and that was a bad omen for Obama. The undecided will now all swing away from Obama. Hammer a “negative” message like welfare and you can immediately transfix the electorate with an emotional bond. Remember that most voters didn’t graduate from ivy league college sipping their $5 lattes discussing Tolstoy,Marx,etc and hating America. Real Americans are inherently good and think like Kant even if they are just plumbers and never been to Columbia.
Listen to all the chatter about the real American states and real VA (“northern VA is commie place”, McCain’s brother) and one would think the civil war was not over. Its not.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49G0V320081019?sp=true
October 19, 2008 @ 1:05 AM
I think Obama will win, but
I think Obama will win, but think the Repubs will stop at NOTHING to seal a victory for a ridiculous ticket.
And let’s talk about “voting irregularities.” I find it telling that McCain is stumping around about ACORN when there are touch-screen voting machines racking up points for McCain every time someone votes for Obama. The only thing worse than a liar is a cheat–who goes around pretending to be a hero.
Then there is the very real possibility that the GOP serves up Bin Laden’s head to McCain right before election day. Haven’t seen any new videos of bin landen recently and I don’t think the GOP would necessarily broadcast that they’d found him until it gives them some political advantage. Politics and power over country. Like reading an Orwell novel every time I hear McCain/Palin speak out loud.
And while I also fear personal attacks on the candidates, I find it very distressing that so many people are talking about it so openly. It is taboo to my mind that either candidate be attacked–although it is perhaps equally likely that McCain’s ticker (or a brain hemorahage) does him in.
Crazy times….
October 19, 2008 @ 1:41 AM
Shadowfax wrote:I think Obama
[quote=Shadowfax]I think Obama will win, but think the Repubs will stop at NOTHING to seal a victory for a ridiculous ticket.
And let’s talk about “voting irregularities.” I find it telling that McCain is stumping around about ACORN when there are touch-screen voting machines racking up points for McCain every time someone votes for Obama. The only thing worse than a liar is a cheat–who goes around pretending to be a hero.
Then there is the very real possibility that the GOP serves up Bin Laden’s head to McCain right before election day. Haven’t seen any new videos of bin landen recently and I don’t think the GOP would necessarily broadcast that they’d found him until it gives them some political advantage. Politics and power over country. Like reading an Orwell novel every time I hear McCain/Palin speak out loud.
And while I also fear personal attacks on the candidates, I find it very distressing that so many people are talking about it so openly. It is taboo to my mind that either candidate be attacked–although it is perhaps equally likely that McCain’s ticker (or a brain hemorahage) does him in.
Crazy times….[/quote]
I have to admit, I have not heard about this one. Who is using touch screen voting 3 weeks before the election? Care to give a link?
October 19, 2008 @ 1:53 AM
Shadowfax: Out of curiosity,
Shadowfax: Out of curiosity, which Orwell novel do you think of? “Animal Farm”? “1984”? “A Clergyman’s Daughter”?
It’s interesting to accuse someone who fought against Communism, especially the sort of devout Marxist-Leninism practiced by the North Vietnamese and National Liberation Front, of sounding like something out of Orwell. Orwell presciently warned about control of culture and language, something the leftists in this country do so well with Political Correctness and identity politics, and yet it’s McCain being accused.
And I’m sure the GOP knows exactly where bin Laden is and he’ll somehow be delivered, trussed up like a goose, on the 3rd of November.
Failing that, the GOP will orchestrate a massive virus that will simultaneously strike all of the Diebold machines throughout the US.
I’m not voting for either Obama or McCain, but don’t dare to accuse a man who spent years in captivity being tortured of “pretending to be a hero”. I cannot imagine you have even a moments experience of the kind of privations he suffered, and to spout that kind of insulting nonsense disrespects every POW, including those still there, of that awful war.
October 19, 2008 @ 11:12 AM
If Obama wins it is because
If Obama wins it is because he did it the American way- he bought the election by outspending McCain four to one. Hurray for money.
October 18, 2008 @ 10:34 PM
kewp wrote:Joe Biden.
Sarah
[quote=kewp]Joe Biden.[/quote]
Sarah Palin.
Checkmate.
October 20, 2008 @ 1:32 PM
I can’t imagine either one
I can’t imagine either one being Prez….Am I the only one????..But I would say Obama will win because people want “change” even though they don’t know the details of change…
What really will kill is that Obama has ideas of lifting the cap on the social security tax…Now part of your income over the mid 80s (i forget the exact #) will be subjected to the 12.4% tax..Double that if you are self employed and have to pay both the employee and employer sides….
The left is all about redistributing income and penalizing success…Maybe instead of smoking pot in college, these lefties should have applied themselves and gotten real jobs..But because they screwed up, they have to inflicted their wrath on those who sacrficed and worked hard..(end of rant)…