Let’s see, in my coop I’ve Let’s see, in my coop I’ve got 7 roosters, and 35 hens each capable of producing up to 3 eggs a day…
urbanrealtor
October 29, 2008 @
9:19 PM
cooprider wrote:Let’s see, in [quote=cooprider]Let’s see, in my coop I’ve got 7 roosters, and 35 hens each capable of producing up to 3 eggs a day…[/quote]
Is that why you are called cooprider?
cr
October 30, 2008 @
10:32 AM
urbanrealtor wrote:
Is that [quote=urbanrealtor]
Is that why you are called cooprider?[/quote]
Yes, I ride chicken coops. Sounds cooler than farmer – vote NO on 2!
pwilson
October 29, 2008 @
3:00 PM
I sure am seeing a lot of I sure am seeing a lot of victory laps already.
I don’t know if this is I don’t know if this is representative of the population, but, I teach for a fairly large for-profit university. There is a great range in age and cultural diversity, background of the students. Many older students pursuing degrees. Been taking informal polls of how my students are voting and I am hearing that many have been lifelong Republicans but will be voting for Obama.
pwilson wrote:I sure am [quote=pwilson]I sure am seeing a lot of victory laps already.[/quote]
..and that makes me nervous. Young voters especially may think they don’t need to take the time to vote.
That could drastically change the results of the election.
partypup
October 30, 2008 @
4:53 PM
I always expect the I always expect the unexpected.
If we were seeing a 15-20 point spread between these candidates, then I think victory laps would definitely be warranted. But this race appears to be an electoral *landslide* only because Obama is carrying the majority of states — by only a few points, in many cases. Once the margin of error and the 6-9%undecided vote is factored in, this race still seems uncomfortably close to me.
1. Aside from the Bradley/Wilder Effect, there are just an unusually high number of undecideds. And if they were going to break for Obama I imagine they would have already found plenty of reasons to do so by now. But they haven’t. I was reading about a focus group in OH recently with about 12 undecideds. Most were clearly very wary of Obama, despite the fact that our country is going into the crapper after 8 years of GOP leadership. And when pushed, they admitted they were probably going to vote for McCain. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/americandebate/A_reality_check_for_giddy_Obama_fans.html
Remember what happened during the primaries. Obama’s poll numbers often seem to be inflated, and Clinton pulled off a few surprises even in states where she was behind by quite a few points. A few polls actually had Obama winning PA, and he actually lost by almost 10 points. In PA right now, the race is tightening — down from a 14 point Obama lead last week to a dead heat in some polls today. Did you know that nearly 70% of voters in PA are over 45? The vast majority are not college educated, and there are very few non-English speaking immigrants. That’s why Clinton won it handily. That means that PA is in play.
Also, FL is within the margin or error according to several polls, as is OH. OH and PA are interesting cases for another reason, as union rank-and-file often tend to “dupe” phone pollsters by saying that they intend to support whomever their union endorses, then vote for a different candidate. Apparently, unions cold call their members to confirm their support, often pretending to be independent pollsters. Remember, some polls had Clinton ahead in OH by as few as 4 points, and she won the state by 10 points. So history tells us that something strange is happening in these polls this year.
If McCain wins PA, FL, OH and NV, he can still lose VA, CO, IA, NH and NM, and then this race could get very interesting.
I wonder how many of the early voters are the young and new voters that Obama has recruited? I think that without a huge surge in the youth vote or new voters actually casting their ballots, Obama must run as though his life depended on it. He needs a bigger spread, IMO, and a much higher youth turnout than he seems to be getting in order to feel truly comfortable.
3. Voters love an underdog. One thing folks can’t stand, especially the *uneducated*, working class bunch, is to have the media crown someone victor before they’ve had their say. That’s what kept Clinton alive when the media wrote her post mortem after Iowa. Even amid the calls for her to withdraw and yield to the presumptive nominee, voters in several states simply chose to ignore the odds and supported her anyway. And McCain seems to have made a career our of coming from behind. I frankly had written him off in the early days of the Republican primary. My mistake.
4. The Pause in the Meltdown: I have repeatedly contended that an economic meltdown was the only sure way to deliver an Obama victory, and he made his biggest gains shortly after the 2,000 point Dow drop the first week of October. But now that 300-500 point swings have become the new normal, and the Dow has been making sporadic *gains* in the past week, the meltdown has been taken off the front pages. Now everyone is back to looking at Obama and asking themselves if they can fill in the oval beside his name. That’s another reason the polls are tightening, because whenever voters take a hard look at Obama, many seem to get nervous. Bottom line, Obama needs another 700+ point Down drop to scare the bejeesus out of voters again.
5. BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA – During this entire election and throughout the primary, Obama’s opponents were prohibited from uttering his full name. Now the ballot will do the job for them. I mailed mine in the other day and took a moment to stare at his name, thinking how amazing it was that it was actually appearing next to the words “for President”. But in the next moment, I wondered if there would be voters across the country, without my background or experience, who may have a completely different reaction to seeing that name in print.
Despite my personal belief that Obama is a dangerous choice for this country, it is inspiring to know that there are, thankfully, many, many enlightened people in this country who will have no trouble electing a candidate named Barack Hussein Obama. The question is, are there enough of these people to secure his victory?
Right now, I think this race is still too close too call, even though the media has already called it. That’s never a good sign, for those of us who are still experincing PTS disorder from Nov 2000 😉 I think there is a very good chance that Obama will win. But for the reasons above, I would not be surprised in the least if he doesn’t.
Hatfield
October 29, 2008 @
8:54 PM
Yes, it’s looking like a Yes, it’s looking like a landslide:
October 29, 2008 @ 11:55 AM
Let’s see, in my coop I’ve
Let’s see, in my coop I’ve got 7 roosters, and 35 hens each capable of producing up to 3 eggs a day…
October 29, 2008 @ 9:19 PM
cooprider wrote:Let’s see, in
[quote=cooprider]Let’s see, in my coop I’ve got 7 roosters, and 35 hens each capable of producing up to 3 eggs a day…[/quote]
Is that why you are called cooprider?
October 30, 2008 @ 10:32 AM
urbanrealtor wrote:
Is that
[quote=urbanrealtor]
Is that why you are called cooprider?[/quote]
Yes, I ride chicken coops. Sounds cooler than farmer – vote NO on 2!
October 29, 2008 @ 3:00 PM
I sure am seeing a lot of
I sure am seeing a lot of victory laps already.
October 29, 2008 @ 5:57 PM
Here’s the map:
Here’s the map:
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/13170/
Obama will win in a landslide.
October 29, 2008 @ 7:23 PM
I don’t know if this is
I don’t know if this is representative of the population, but, I teach for a fairly large for-profit university. There is a great range in age and cultural diversity, background of the students. Many older students pursuing degrees. Been taking informal polls of how my students are voting and I am hearing that many have been lifelong Republicans but will be voting for Obama.
October 29, 2008 @ 8:07 PM
http://www.democratsformccain
http://www.democratsformccain.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=170&Itemid=128
October 30, 2008 @ 8:16 AM
pwilson wrote:I sure am
[quote=pwilson]I sure am seeing a lot of victory laps already.[/quote]
..and that makes me nervous. Young voters especially may think they don’t need to take the time to vote.
That could drastically change the results of the election.
October 30, 2008 @ 4:53 PM
I always expect the
I always expect the unexpected.
If we were seeing a 15-20 point spread between these candidates, then I think victory laps would definitely be warranted. But this race appears to be an electoral *landslide* only because Obama is carrying the majority of states — by only a few points, in many cases. Once the margin of error and the 6-9%undecided vote is factored in, this race still seems uncomfortably close to me.
1. Aside from the Bradley/Wilder Effect, there are just an unusually high number of undecideds. And if they were going to break for Obama I imagine they would have already found plenty of reasons to do so by now. But they haven’t. I was reading about a focus group in OH recently with about 12 undecideds. Most were clearly very wary of Obama, despite the fact that our country is going into the crapper after 8 years of GOP leadership. And when pushed, they admitted they were probably going to vote for McCain. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/americandebate/A_reality_check_for_giddy_Obama_fans.html
Remember what happened during the primaries. Obama’s poll numbers often seem to be inflated, and Clinton pulled off a few surprises even in states where she was behind by quite a few points. A few polls actually had Obama winning PA, and he actually lost by almost 10 points. In PA right now, the race is tightening — down from a 14 point Obama lead last week to a dead heat in some polls today. Did you know that nearly 70% of voters in PA are over 45? The vast majority are not college educated, and there are very few non-English speaking immigrants. That’s why Clinton won it handily. That means that PA is in play.
Also, FL is within the margin or error according to several polls, as is OH. OH and PA are interesting cases for another reason, as union rank-and-file often tend to “dupe” phone pollsters by saying that they intend to support whomever their union endorses, then vote for a different candidate. Apparently, unions cold call their members to confirm their support, often pretending to be independent pollsters. Remember, some polls had Clinton ahead in OH by as few as 4 points, and she won the state by 10 points. So history tells us that something strange is happening in these polls this year.
If McCain wins PA, FL, OH and NV, he can still lose VA, CO, IA, NH and NM, and then this race could get very interesting.
2. Obama made a massive push for early voting, and the returns are showing an Obama edge, but it doesn’t seem in proportion to the efforts expended or what was expected. In FL, early returns put the race neck and neck. http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081029/BREAKINGNEWS/81029048/1006/news01
Ditto for NV: http://www.lvrj.com/news/33494194.html
I wonder how many of the early voters are the young and new voters that Obama has recruited? I think that without a huge surge in the youth vote or new voters actually casting their ballots, Obama must run as though his life depended on it. He needs a bigger spread, IMO, and a much higher youth turnout than he seems to be getting in order to feel truly comfortable.
3. Voters love an underdog. One thing folks can’t stand, especially the *uneducated*, working class bunch, is to have the media crown someone victor before they’ve had their say. That’s what kept Clinton alive when the media wrote her post mortem after Iowa. Even amid the calls for her to withdraw and yield to the presumptive nominee, voters in several states simply chose to ignore the odds and supported her anyway. And McCain seems to have made a career our of coming from behind. I frankly had written him off in the early days of the Republican primary. My mistake.
4. The Pause in the Meltdown: I have repeatedly contended that an economic meltdown was the only sure way to deliver an Obama victory, and he made his biggest gains shortly after the 2,000 point Dow drop the first week of October. But now that 300-500 point swings have become the new normal, and the Dow has been making sporadic *gains* in the past week, the meltdown has been taken off the front pages. Now everyone is back to looking at Obama and asking themselves if they can fill in the oval beside his name. That’s another reason the polls are tightening, because whenever voters take a hard look at Obama, many seem to get nervous. Bottom line, Obama needs another 700+ point Down drop to scare the bejeesus out of voters again.
5. BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA – During this entire election and throughout the primary, Obama’s opponents were prohibited from uttering his full name. Now the ballot will do the job for them. I mailed mine in the other day and took a moment to stare at his name, thinking how amazing it was that it was actually appearing next to the words “for President”. But in the next moment, I wondered if there would be voters across the country, without my background or experience, who may have a completely different reaction to seeing that name in print.
Despite my personal belief that Obama is a dangerous choice for this country, it is inspiring to know that there are, thankfully, many, many enlightened people in this country who will have no trouble electing a candidate named Barack Hussein Obama. The question is, are there enough of these people to secure his victory?
Right now, I think this race is still too close too call, even though the media has already called it. That’s never a good sign, for those of us who are still experincing PTS disorder from Nov 2000 😉 I think there is a very good chance that Obama will win. But for the reasons above, I would not be surprised in the least if he doesn’t.
October 29, 2008 @ 8:54 PM
Yes, it’s looking like a
Yes, it’s looking like a landslide:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
http://www.electoral-vote.com/