[TheBreeze]

I think the bailout has already begun. The Federal Home Loan Banks now have $822 billion in crappy mortgages:

http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/02/25/the-richie-riches-of-the-housing-mess/

Supposedly, the mortgages are just being held as collateral, but somehow I think the taxpayers are going to end up eating those puppies in the end.

Add the $800 billion to the $200 billion the Fed is willing to take in and we’re well on our way to a trillion dollar bailout. What the hell, we’re on pace to blow a couple trillion in Iraq, why not blow a couple trillion more to artificailly inflate housing prices?

The dollar’s down another percent or so and gold’s up again:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839171/site/14081545/

It looks like we’re going to go through a pretty nasty period of stagflation. When all is said and done, savers will be punished again (with the dollar collapse) and the speculators will blow another bubble (it looks like commodities this time). Good times.

At least we can take solace in the fact that that Scholes guy that the government appears to be listening to was the father of what got us into this mess in the first place (portfolio insurance):

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/02/19/Black-Scholes-Pricing-Model

And to top it all off, the one thing you’d think would be in infinite supply (internet addresses) are supposedly going to be all gone by 2010:

http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/02/22/1348210

What a wacky, wacky world we live in.

[TheBreeze]

I think the bailout has already begun. The Federal Home Loan Banks now have $822 billion in crappy mortgages:

http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/02/25/the-richie-riches-of-the-housing-mess/

Supposedly, the mortgages are just being held as collateral, but somehow I think the taxpayers are going to end up eating those puppies in the end.

Add the $800 billion to the $200 billion the Fed is willing to take in and we’re well on our way to a trillion dollar bailout. What the hell, we’re on pace to blow a couple trillion in Iraq, why not blow a couple trillion more to artificailly inflate housing prices?

The dollar’s down another percent or so and gold’s up again:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839171/site/14081545/

It looks like we’re going to go through a pretty nasty period of stagflation. When all is said and done, savers will be punished again (with the dollar collapse) and the speculators will blow another bubble (it looks like commodities this time). Good times.

At least we can take solace in the fact that that Scholes guy that the government appears to be listening to was the father of what got us into this mess in the first place (portfolio insurance):

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/02/19/Black-Scholes-Pricing-Model

And to top it all off, the one thing you’d think would be in infinite supply (internet addresses) are supposedly going to be all gone by 2010:

http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/02/22/1348210

What a wacky, wacky world we live in.

[TheBreeze]

I think the bailout has already begun. The Federal Home Loan Banks now have $822 billion in crappy mortgages:

http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/02/25/the-richie-riches-of-the-housing-mess/

Supposedly, the mortgages are just being held as collateral, but somehow I think the taxpayers are going to end up eating those puppies in the end.

Add the $800 billion to the $200 billion the Fed is willing to take in and we’re well on our way to a trillion dollar bailout. What the hell, we’re on pace to blow a couple trillion in Iraq, why not blow a couple trillion more to artificailly inflate housing prices?

The dollar’s down another percent or so and gold’s up again:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839171/site/14081545/

It looks like we’re going to go through a pretty nasty period of stagflation. When all is said and done, savers will be punished again (with the dollar collapse) and the speculators will blow another bubble (it looks like commodities this time). Good times.

At least we can take solace in the fact that that Scholes guy that the government appears to be listening to was the father of what got us into this mess in the first place (portfolio insurance):

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/02/19/Black-Scholes-Pricing-Model

And to top it all off, the one thing you’d think would be in infinite supply (internet addresses) are supposedly going to be all gone by 2010:

http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/02/22/1348210

What a wacky, wacky world we live in.

[TheBreeze]

I think the bailout has already begun. The Federal Home Loan Banks now have $822 billion in crappy mortgages:

http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/02/25/the-richie-riches-of-the-housing-mess/

Supposedly, the mortgages are just being held as collateral, but somehow I think the taxpayers are going to end up eating those puppies in the end.

Add the $800 billion to the $200 billion the Fed is willing to take in and we’re well on our way to a trillion dollar bailout. What the hell, we’re on pace to blow a couple trillion in Iraq, why not blow a couple trillion more to artificailly inflate housing prices?

The dollar’s down another percent or so and gold’s up again:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839171/site/14081545/

It looks like we’re going to go through a pretty nasty period of stagflation. When all is said and done, savers will be punished again (with the dollar collapse) and the speculators will blow another bubble (it looks like commodities this time). Good times.

At least we can take solace in the fact that that Scholes guy that the government appears to be listening to was the father of what got us into this mess in the first place (portfolio insurance):

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/02/19/Black-Scholes-Pricing-Model

And to top it all off, the one thing you’d think would be in infinite supply (internet addresses) are supposedly going to be all gone by 2010:

http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/02/22/1348210

What a wacky, wacky world we live in.

[TheBreeze]

I think the bailout has already begun. The Federal Home Loan Banks now have $822 billion in crappy mortgages:

http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/02/25/the-richie-riches-of-the-housing-mess/

Supposedly, the mortgages are just being held as collateral, but somehow I think the taxpayers are going to end up eating those puppies in the end.

Add the $800 billion to the $200 billion the Fed is willing to take in and we’re well on our way to a trillion dollar bailout. What the hell, we’re on pace to blow a couple trillion in Iraq, why not blow a couple trillion more to artificailly inflate housing prices?

The dollar’s down another percent or so and gold’s up again:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839171/site/14081545/

It looks like we’re going to go through a pretty nasty period of stagflation. When all is said and done, savers will be punished again (with the dollar collapse) and the speculators will blow another bubble (it looks like commodities this time). Good times.

At least we can take solace in the fact that that Scholes guy that the government appears to be listening to was the father of what got us into this mess in the first place (portfolio insurance):

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/02/19/Black-Scholes-Pricing-Model

And to top it all off, the one thing you’d think would be in infinite supply (internet addresses) are supposedly going to be all gone by 2010:

http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/02/22/1348210

What a wacky, wacky world we live in.

[TheBreeze]

For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.

The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 10 years is 4%. The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 5 years is 11%. So the average annual return over the last 10 years hasn’t been great, but it’s certainly no disaster. The 5-year average annual return is very good.

Even if someone put all their money in at the top in 2000 (when the S&P500 topped out at approximately 1500), they would only be down 12%. Adjusted for inflation they would be down more than that, but that’s still not bad for putting all your money in at the all-time high (something that dollar-cost averaging would prevent).

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

[TheBreeze]

For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.

The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 10 years is 4%. The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 5 years is 11%. So the average annual return over the last 10 years hasn’t been great, but it’s certainly no disaster. The 5-year average annual return is very good.

Even if someone put all their money in at the top in 2000 (when the S&P500 topped out at approximately 1500), they would only be down 12%. Adjusted for inflation they would be down more than that, but that’s still not bad for putting all your money in at the all-time high (something that dollar-cost averaging would prevent).

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

[TheBreeze]

For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.

The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 10 years is 4%. The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 5 years is 11%. So the average annual return over the last 10 years hasn’t been great, but it’s certainly no disaster. The 5-year average annual return is very good.

Even if someone put all their money in at the top in 2000 (when the S&P500 topped out at approximately 1500), they would only be down 12%. Adjusted for inflation they would be down more than that, but that’s still not bad for putting all your money in at the all-time high (something that dollar-cost averaging would prevent).

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

[TheBreeze]

For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.

The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 10 years is 4%. The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 5 years is 11%. So the average annual return over the last 10 years hasn’t been great, but it’s certainly no disaster. The 5-year average annual return is very good.

Even if someone put all their money in at the top in 2000 (when the S&P500 topped out at approximately 1500), they would only be down 12%. Adjusted for inflation they would be down more than that, but that’s still not bad for putting all your money in at the all-time high (something that dollar-cost averaging would prevent).

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

[TheBreeze]

For most people the absolute best advice, the only sane advice is get the fuck out now! If you are willing to take risk, bear markets can be very profitable. Lots of people did exactly what you say and adjusted for inflation lost a decade because of it. Returns on the S&P have been anemic since the top of the market in 99.

The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 10 years is 4%. The average annual return on the S&P500 over the last 5 years is 11%. So the average annual return over the last 10 years hasn’t been great, but it’s certainly no disaster. The 5-year average annual return is very good.

Even if someone put all their money in at the top in 2000 (when the S&P500 topped out at approximately 1500), they would only be down 12%. Adjusted for inflation they would be down more than that, but that’s still not bad for putting all your money in at the all-time high (something that dollar-cost averaging would prevent).

Please post the next time you go short. Since you think it’s “beyond stupid” to dollar-cost average from these levels (down approximately 12% from an all-time high), I want to see in real-time how a real trading genius does.

[TheBreeze]

Phhheewwww! Dow closed up +417. Monster move.

SDS is doing bad. However, if you are looking at day to day, you are going to have a heart attack. I still say 10,000 by the end of this year.

I don’t necessarily disagree. I’m just funning with the stock market bears with this thread.

I think trying to value the stock market is fundamentally different (and much harder) than valuing a house. Houses are pretty easy: you buy when your mortgage payment + maintenance + HOA + taxes – any tax deductions is less than the rent on an equivalent place. If you really want to own something, maybe you are willing to overpay by a few hundred dollars per month.

Stocks are much harder to value because the valuation is based on a future income stream which cannot be known (although it can be estimated/guessed at). I believe that dollar-cost averaging into the market over the next 15 years or so will put me in position to be able to retire early at that time. It seems most people on this site get more panicky as the stock market goes down, but those are the times when you want to make sure that you continue to DCA.

[TheBreeze]

Phhheewwww! Dow closed up +417. Monster move.

SDS is doing bad. However, if you are looking at day to day, you are going to have a heart attack. I still say 10,000 by the end of this year.

I don’t necessarily disagree. I’m just funning with the stock market bears with this thread.

I think trying to value the stock market is fundamentally different (and much harder) than valuing a house. Houses are pretty easy: you buy when your mortgage payment + maintenance + HOA + taxes – any tax deductions is less than the rent on an equivalent place. If you really want to own something, maybe you are willing to overpay by a few hundred dollars per month.

Stocks are much harder to value because the valuation is based on a future income stream which cannot be known (although it can be estimated/guessed at). I believe that dollar-cost averaging into the market over the next 15 years or so will put me in position to be able to retire early at that time. It seems most people on this site get more panicky as the stock market goes down, but those are the times when you want to make sure that you continue to DCA.

[TheBreeze]

Phhheewwww! Dow closed up +417. Monster move.

SDS is doing bad. However, if you are looking at day to day, you are going to have a heart attack. I still say 10,000 by the end of this year.

I don’t necessarily disagree. I’m just funning with the stock market bears with this thread.

I think trying to value the stock market is fundamentally different (and much harder) than valuing a house. Houses are pretty easy: you buy when your mortgage payment + maintenance + HOA + taxes – any tax deductions is less than the rent on an equivalent place. If you really want to own something, maybe you are willing to overpay by a few hundred dollars per month.

Stocks are much harder to value because the valuation is based on a future income stream which cannot be known (although it can be estimated/guessed at). I believe that dollar-cost averaging into the market over the next 15 years or so will put me in position to be able to retire early at that time. It seems most people on this site get more panicky as the stock market goes down, but those are the times when you want to make sure that you continue to DCA.

[TheBreeze]

Phhheewwww! Dow closed up +417. Monster move.

SDS is doing bad. However, if you are looking at day to day, you are going to have a heart attack. I still say 10,000 by the end of this year.

I don’t necessarily disagree. I’m just funning with the stock market bears with this thread.

I think trying to value the stock market is fundamentally different (and much harder) than valuing a house. Houses are pretty easy: you buy when your mortgage payment + maintenance + HOA + taxes – any tax deductions is less than the rent on an equivalent place. If you really want to own something, maybe you are willing to overpay by a few hundred dollars per month.

Stocks are much harder to value because the valuation is based on a future income stream which cannot be known (although it can be estimated/guessed at). I believe that dollar-cost averaging into the market over the next 15 years or so will put me in position to be able to retire early at that time. It seems most people on this site get more panicky as the stock market goes down, but those are the times when you want to make sure that you continue to DCA.

[TheBreeze]

Phhheewwww! Dow closed up +417. Monster move.

SDS is doing bad. However, if you are looking at day to day, you are going to have a heart attack. I still say 10,000 by the end of this year.

I don’t necessarily disagree. I’m just funning with the stock market bears with this thread.

I think trying to value the stock market is fundamentally different (and much harder) than valuing a house. Houses are pretty easy: you buy when your mortgage payment + maintenance + HOA + taxes – any tax deductions is less than the rent on an equivalent place. If you really want to own something, maybe you are willing to overpay by a few hundred dollars per month.

Stocks are much harder to value because the valuation is based on a future income stream which cannot be known (although it can be estimated/guessed at). I believe that dollar-cost averaging into the market over the next 15 years or so will put me in position to be able to retire early at that time. It seems most people on this site get more panicky as the stock market goes down, but those are the times when you want to make sure that you continue to DCA.

[Author]

Posts