[The-Shoveler]

[quote=briansd1][quote=ocrenter]not so much slow and steady, but more of small waves of up and down, without significant increase upward.

I really should back up and say the decade I’m referring to started in 2008, so more or less half way through.[/quote]

I agree with OC renter.

Loans are harder to qualify for because of stricter underwriting. The higher-end will be affected more.[/quote]

It’s all about Credit (well OK Jobs too),

This (below) is the switch I think will get thrown (out) eventually, it makes no sense at this point in time.
I think the lenders will go back to `10% and maybe even 5% downs and still offer low rates once things show stability
(If we let them)
Right now it is like pulling teeth

Regulators are now fleshing out the QRM definition, and propose requiring 20% down payments from borrowers. Since the down payment is generally lost in a foreclosure, that would give homeowners a strong incentive to keep making payments even if they run into financial trouble. A smaller loan relative to the property’s value also makes it easier for the lender to recover the debt in a foreclosure.

Right now, most borrowers put at least 20% down, because lenders are still pretty nervous. But experts have generally thought the market would gradually return to normal, allowing down payments of only 5% or 10%.

If the QRM designation does end up requiring 20% down payments, that will likely become standard across the board, since lenders would want to be exempt from the rule requiring they keep 5% of the securities they create. The retention rule would expose them to risk and tie up money they might prefer to use in other ways.

A 20% down payment is a tough hurdle for first-time home buyers, but it can also be a problem for homeowners who want to trade up. In the past, most homeowners have counted on equity in the current home to cover the down payment on the next. But sinking home values in the past few years have left nearly half of homeowners with mortgages that have equity less than 20%. (About a third of homeowners have no mortgage debt at all.)

Bottom line: Even if you have owned a home for years, you might have to dig into other savings to make the down payment the next time you move.

The QRM rules are still being debated, and many lenders and consumer groups oppose the 20% rule, so things could change.

[The-Shoveler]

Slow and steady , hmmm
These things seldom work that way for long.

But maybe this time is different

[The-Shoveler]

That’s not crazy I will show you crazy,

I just bought QID (also in IRA, it’s the only way to trade!!).

now that’s crazy, Somehow I know I am just going to get steam rolled on that one.

[The-Shoveler]

Not so sure demand is really low, just stifled.
Really prices are low enough in most area’s now (OK maybe not Coastal SD)

http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/north-america-residential-news/tight-lending-standards-national-association-of-home-builders-nahb-federal-reserve-tight-mortgage-lending-standards-congress-report-5162.php

U.S. Homebuilders Applaud Fed Report on Tight Lending Standards

Maybe they are waiting for them to flip the switch ?

Manipulation works both ways sometimes.

[The-Shoveler]

I think I saw something where now if you’re in the short sale process, then they cannot simultaneously start the foreclosure process on you, but I could be wrong,
Me myself I think the banks are planning to wait until demand comes on line. I think they learned their lesson on the beating they took at the low end; I don’t think they could not survive that again,
Then again I would not want to be looking in CV after QCOM’s and Broadcoms earnings either.

[The-Shoveler]

Well is seems flu was right Facebook, QCOM and Tech’s are starting another bubble (Woohoo for the tech’es out there).
I guess I would not want to be the guy looking to buy a place down towards CV any time soon.

[The-Shoveler]

Oh I forgot RE only goes down,
Well if I am right I will be less silly at least.
What I was referring to was that the great recession would be over once the market normalized (mostly at the mid to low end). And we would not be looking at 8-9 % unemployment.
Really it makes no sense to require 20% down payments right now, it did in 2003-2006 but not now.

[The-Shoveler]

OK I got the link bookmarked,
Lets check back in a few years.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=pri_dk]Stuff usually doesn’t stay where it was made.

The US should certainly be on that list – still the world’s #1 manufacturer (although China is catching up quickly.)[/quote]

Well I have said several times the downturn is really just in the real estate related sectors,
If we could get the housing market to get back to a normal market (ie.. not just investors buying REO’s for steep discounts for all cash). Then we would be under 6% unemployment.
If the banks were to loosen up the mortgage market just a little this would be over in a flash.
Makes me think they are just waiting for a signal or something.

[The-Shoveler]

We need a new thread ,

Need Plan for 10 Mil in 10 years,

OK Plan for 10 Mil in 3 years.

[The-Shoveler]

I think you need to break that down in years, from about 2002 to 2006 somewhere we were in the housing bubble and definitely parting like it was 1999,

But I am with WW, where are all the bitchin BMW’s and the like used cars, I mean there should be a lot of them somewhere ?

[The-Shoveler]

In absents of a major event (Iran, Europe etc…) sdr and “SD R” are right.
The average underwater home owner in SoCal is down 90~100K, There is no way in heck there will ever be a true economic recovery when that is even close to being the case. The PTB know this.
But I get all kinds of conflicting indicators as well, the GSE betting against the home owners is just one of them (I said it before and I will say it again, for some reason the PTB want it the way it is, otherwise they would have come up with a resolution a long time ago.
If it was easier to get a mortgage, at least in the low end area’s this downturn would have been history a long time ago,

I took the red pill.

[The-Shoveler]

Well these guys are getting ready for something

Blackstone’s new real estate fund passes $6 billion

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstones-real-estate-fund-passes-011947814.html

[The-Shoveler]

“During the RTC sales in the 89/90 timeframe people were buying lots of condos at the beach for $10k each with cash.
People were buying homes in Florida for a dollar. ”

Dude Really ??

I want a few of each if that occurs again thanks, can’t wait !!

As for stocks, I think I will wait it out this time, Both Europe and the attack aforementioned are a when not if thing IMO, Myself, I would not want to be holding overnight when that occurs.

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t get it, you guys pay 40 to 60K for weekend hobby cars, Then you complain/worry about people over paying 50 to 100K for a house?
Just kidding LOL !!!

Me I am sticking with Ford, I have at least 300K miles on the current one.

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